Notes on contributors

The phrase ‘North – South divide’—as well as variations such as ‘North – South gap’ or ‘North – South cleavage’—has become well established in public discourse and scholarly writing. The phrase, however, is highly problematic, as it is simplistic and as there is a substantial danger of misapprehending it for ‘reality’ as such. The indiscriminate usage of the phrase ‘North – South divide’ overlooks the ways in which words create and shape our understanding of the world, on which we, in turn, base our judgements and decisions. The aim of the present paper is to point out specific ways through which this linguistic distinction—as much as any other—shapes our conception of (social) reality. The paper is in two parts. In the first we will initially draw out some pitfalls that inhere in the notion of a ‘North – South divide’qua notion, and then point to other pitfalls that relate to the usage of the expression. In the second part two case studies are presented to illustrate our arguments: one of them deals with China, the other with intellectual property rights.     

The difference between drug money and a "lifetime's savings"

In many countries, monies suspected of being associated with drug trafficking can be seized by the authorities. One of the ways of investigating this association is through the analysis of seized banknotes for traces of controlled drugs. We report three studies which may assist the expert in assessing whether banknotes contaminated with diamorphine are part of the general population of notes in circulation or whether they show unusual contamination patterns which require explanation. Study 1 is based on three plausible contamination scenarios as they may occur during the various stages of an illicit drug transaction and seizure. It shows that notes which have been in direct contact with visible traces of diamorphine show significantly higher contamination to those in more indirect contact with the drug. Study 2 investigates the transfer of diamorphine from one highly contaminated note to other notes in a bundle over a period of 10 weeks with and without agitation. It was found that the total amount of drug transferred was smaller than 6% and no more than 4 out of a bundle of 10 previously clean notes became lightly contaminated. Based on extensive background data, study 3 proposes a probabilistic model to assess whether an observed proportion of diamorphine bearing banknotes is likely to have been contaminated by chance. The model predicts that there is only a 0.3% chance that a bundle of 100 notes from the general banknote population contains more than six contaminated specimens. Jointly, the three studies give useful indications for the spread of contamination throughout a sample and the amounts of heroin which may be expected given plausible contamination scenarios.     

Predicting Recidivism Amongst Sexual Offenders: A Multi-site Study of Static-2002

The predictive accuracy of Static-2002 (Hanson & Thornton, Notes on the development of Static-2002 (Corrections Research User Report No. 2003-01), 2003) was examined in eight samples of sexual offenders (five Canadian, one U.S., one U.K., one Danish; total sample of 3,034). Static-2002 showed moderate ability to rank order the risk for sexual, violent and general (any) recidivism (AUCs of .68, .71, and .70, respectively), and was more accurate than Static-99. These findings support the use of Static-2002 in applied assessments. There were substantial differences across samples, however, in the observed sexual recidivism rates. These differences present new challenges to evaluators wishing to use actuarial risk scores to estimate absolute recidivism rates.     

Why Emotions Matter: Expectancy Violation and Affective Response Mediate the Emotional Victim Effect

The mechanisms behind the ‘emotional victim effect’ (i.e., that the emotionality of a rape victim’s demeanor affects perceived credibility) are relatively unexplored. In this article, a previously neglected mechanism—observers’ affective response to the victim—is proposed as an alternative to the traditional expectancy-violation account. The emotional victim effect was replicated in an experiment with a sample of police trainees (N = 189), and cognitive load was found to increase the magnitude of the effect. Importantly, both compassionate affective response and expectancy violation actively mediated the emotional victim effect when the other mechanism was controlled for. These findings extend previous research on credibility judgments by introducing a ‘hot’ cognitive component in the judgment process. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Individual Confidence Intervals Do Not Inform Decision-Makers About the Accuracy of Risk Assessment Evaluations

Some recent articles have proposed that the confidence interval for the predicted outcome of a single case can be used to describe the predictive accuracy of risk assessments (Hart et al. Br J Psychiat 190:60–65, 2007b; Cooke and Michie, Law Hum Behav 2009). Given that the confidence intervals for an individual prediction are very large, Cooke and colleagues have questioned the wisdom of applying recidivism rates estimated from group data to single cases. In this article, we argue that the confidence intervals for the recidivism outcome predicted for a single case will range between zero to one (i.e., be uninformative) when the outcome is dichotomous and the predicted probability is between .05 and .95. This is true by definition and limits the utility of using individual confidence intervals to measure predictive accuracy. Consequently, other quality indicators (many of which are non-quantitative) are needed to determine the accuracy and error of risk evaluations.     

To Discipline and Publish: Scottsboro and Narratives of Delinquency

With the economics of racism of the 1930s and 1950s American South in mind, our essay explores the relationship between the act of writing and institutional penology. Taking an obscure, but visceral autobiographical account by Paterson and Conrad (Scottsboro Boy, Garden City Doubleday, 1950), we examine how discipline, punishment, and institutional identity emerge out of publishing, or, as Foucault put it, “the power of writing.” Narratives of delinquency born out of a racialized penal economy tend to resist attempts to tame the criminal, making institutional survival a productive discourse, and its articulation, a unique revolutionary act.

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Governing complexity: How can the interplay of multilateral environmental agreements be harnessed for effective international market-based climate policy instruments?

International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics - Major new multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) have entered into force in 2016, including the Paris Agreement (PA)...     

In Search of Indicators of Detective Aptitude: Police Recruits’ Logical Reasoning and Ability to Generate Investigative Hypotheses

Previous psychological research on criminal investigation has not systematically addressed the role of deductive and inductive reasoning skills in decision-making in detectives. This study examined the relationship between these skills derived from a cognitive ability test used for police recruitment and test scores from an investigative reasoning skills task (Fahsing and Ask 2016). Newly recruited students at the Norwegian Police University College (N = 166) were presented with two semi-fictitious missing-person cases and were asked to report all relevant hypotheses and necessary investigative actions in each case. The quality of participants’ responses was gauged by comparison with a gold standard established by a panel of senior police experts. The scores from the deductive and inductive reasoning test were not related to participants’ performance on the investigative reasoning task. However, the presence or absence of an investigative “tipping-point” (i.e. arrest decision) in the two cases was systematically associated with participants’ ability to generate investigative hypotheses. Methodological limitations and implications for police recruitment and criminal investigative practice are discussed.     

Literatur

Ohne Zusammenfassung