THE STATE SOCIALIST WELFARE SYSTEM and the POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PUBLIC HOUSING REFORM IN URBAN CHINA

This aticle analyses China's housing reform against the background that a new housing policy has been implemented since 1988. The crucial point of the 1998 housing policy package is to stop the allocation system of state‐subsidized public housing. By changing this rule of the game, a major institutional obstacle to housing reform will be removed, and some unfeasible policy measures become feasible within the new institutional context.     

Self-imposed term limits

In “Reconciling voters' behavior with legislative term limits,” Dick and Lott argue that since more senior representatives are better at rent-seeking, there is an inefficient tendency to re-elect incumbents. In their model, term limits are preferred collectively by constituencies, even though no constituency would independently oust its incumbent representative. However, many term limits are unilaterally self-imposed (in particular the 22nd amendment limiting presidents' terms to two), and their model cannot explain these limits. In this comment, I suggest that term limits may be self-imposed by risk-averse voters, who prefer cycling between left and right wing candidates to a once-and-for-all election that imposes a candidate of a single ideology on the entre electorate. The market failure that makes term limits helpful is that out of power minorities cannot bribe the median voter.     

Chinese nationalism,Taiwan autonomy and the prospects of a larger war

In contrast to the belief that the 1995–1996 Taiwan Straits crisis was caused by the visit of the President of Taiwan to Cornell University, in fact, the post‐Mao ruling groups in Beijing made forcing early reunification with mainland China on Taiwan a top priority soon after assuming power in 1978. This new focus on Taiwan's reunification reflects a policy switch. It is not a continuation of Mao era policies. The switch is basic. It involves a profound change in the content of Chinese nationalism from Mao era nationalism, which is seen by its critics in China as insufficiently promoting the national interests of the Chinese people. The new, post‐Mao nationalism in China not only challenges Taiwan's autonomy, it also could endanger peace in the Pacific‐Asia region. Consequently, it is important to rethink the political dynamics at work in China and in the region if the parties involved hope to avoid a larger war.     

A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.     

Building bridges between the parole officer and the families of serious juvenile offenders: a preliminary report on a family-based parole program

Responding to a model of juvenile offender case supervision that called for a new intervention paradigm to guide the work of probation and parole officers, the present article reports on the use of a family-based parole initiative known as the Growing Up FAST program. Developed in part as a tool for use within this new intervention paradigm, the Growing Up FAST parole program targets serious youthful offenders who have been released from juvenile correctional facilities and their families. Based on elements contained within the "what works" literature and the Balanced and Restorative Justice model, this program recognizes the central role that field staff can play in rehabilitation efforts. Demographic information and formative data regarding the first set of families to participate in this program are presented, then program limitations and lessons learned as part of the initial offering of this parole initiative are discussed.     

Time-Varying Risk Factors for Reassault Among Batterer Program Participants

This study uses longitudinal data to identify risk markers for reassault among batterer program participants. Data are from 308 men and their partners collected at five, 3-month intervals. Time-varying situational and behavioral risk factors, as well as time-invariant individual characteristics, are examined. The most influential risk markers, in terms of relative risk and level of statistical significance, were time-varying: 2 measures of the man's drunkenness during the follow-up interval in which the reassault occurred (OR: 3.5-16.3; p > .0005). Other included time-varying batterer characteristics had no significant effect on reassault. Two significant time-invariant batterer risk factors were (1) severe psychopathology and (2) a history of non-domestic-violence arrest, both measured at intake. Results suggest that batterers' drinking behavior after program intake may provide an important and easily observed marker for risk of reassault and that prediction of reassault with individual risk factors at program intake remains problematical.