Passing and Strategic Voting on the U.S. Supreme Court

Analyzing strategic aspects of judicial decisionmaking is an important element in understanding how law develops. In this article, we examine sophisticated voting on the U.S. Supreme Court by empirically modeling justices' decisions to pass when it is their turn to vote during conference discussions. We argue that, due to the opinion assignment norm, the chief justice may pass when one of the key conditions necessary for sophisticated voting—certainty about the views held by other justices and the agenda—is lacking. By passing, the chief can view his colleagues' votes in order to determine which vote will allow him to assign the majority opinion and, ultimately, forward his policy preferences. Using data from Justice Lewis F. Powell's conference notes, we show that the chief passes for this purpose, and that doing so is an effective strategy. In addition, we show that the senior associate justice in a case, who has a nontrivial chance of assigning the majority opinion, also passes for strategic reasons. As we expect, the data indicate that the remaining associates seem not to pass for strategic purposes.     

Measuring the Geographical Displacement and Diffusion of Benefit Effects of Crime Prevention Activity

The displacement of crime is an important criminological phenomenon. However, while there has been theoretical discussion of this issue in the research literature, there has been little in the way of either standardized empirical work that investigates the incidence of displacement or in the development of techniques that can be used to measure it. In the current paper we discuss a new technique, the weighted displacement quotient (WDQ), that was developed to measure the geographical displacement of crime. A critical feature of the rationale is that displacement can only be attributed to crime prevention activity if crime is reduced in the target area considered. Thus, the WDQ not only measures what occurs in a buffer (displacement) zone but also relates changes in this area to those in the target area. Part of the appeal of the measure is that it can be used either with aggregate or disaggregate crime data and for any geographical boundary selected, provided the appropriate data are available. In addition to detecting displacement, when detailed data are available, the technique can also be used to identify where the effect was most prominent. The WDQ can equally be used to measure the diffusion of benefit of any crime prevention activity. A series of examples are presented for illustration purposes.     

Adjudication of patent validity is sent home

The Court of Justice restrictively interprets the Brussels Convention,frustrating the development of transnational adjudication ofpatent infringement claims by precluding a court from consideringthe validity of a foreign patent even where the decision onlyhas effect between the parties.     

The de Bunsen Committee and a revision of the ‘conspiracy’ of Sykes–Picot

The Sykes–Picot The Sykes-Picot Agreement is often cited as evidence of a Western conspiracy to carve up the Middle East and subordinate the Arabs. It is a prevalent view across the region, and has been a refrain repeated by critics. Yet very little is known of the far more significant conclusions of a Committee, formed by Maurice de Bunsen on the orders of the British government, which ascertained the options open to the Allies in 1915. Far from a nefarious conspiracy, the Committee came down in favour of a decentralised, ultimately independent region. The First World War compelled some revision of the original intent, but the essence of the Committee's conclusions remained intact throughout the war, and after. Conversely, Sir Mark Sykes repudiated the ‘agreement’ he had made with the French diplomat Picot, and substantial revisions were made to that temporary scheme. Yet it seems that ‘conspiracy sells’, and generations have colluded with the theme of perfidy to reinforce particular narratives, including, most recently, the Da´esh movement's claim to have ‘ended Sykes-Picot’.     

The Australian Right in the “Asian Century”: Inequality and Implications for Social Democracy

ABSTRACT

This article analyses the policy discourse of Australian right-wing governments, exploring how such governments have combined neo-liberal economic policies with social conservatism, populism, cultural nationalism and forms of authoritarianism. It also examines the resulting response of social democratic political parties. As a predominantly Western country situated in the Asia-Pacific region, Australian experience offers interesting insights into the domestic politics of right-wing governments facing the changing geo-political and geo-economic imperatives of the “Asian Century.” Conservative Australian governments have reasserted traditional Anglo-centric national identity and used competition from key Asian countries to further justify market-driven policies, reduced welfare benefits and reduced industrial relations standards. The social democratic Australian Labor Party has responded to right-wing government policy by placing an increased emphasis on challenging social and economic inequality. However, Labor’s own plans for equitable economic growth potentially underestimate the challenges posed by the intermeshing of the Australian and Asian economies and provide insights into the dilemmas that a changing geo-economics poses for Western social democracy more broadly. Meanwhile Australian conservatism is facing not just challenges from its social democratic opponent but also from far-right populist forces critical of globalisation.     

Book Reviews

Taylor C. Boas, Presidential Campaigns in Latin America: Electoral Strategies and Success Contagion. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2016. Figures, tables, appendixes, bibliography, index, 276 pp.; hardcover $99.99, ebook. John Gledhill, The New War on the Poor: The Production of Insecurity in Latin America. London: Zed Books, 2015. Map, bibliography, index, 256 pp.; paperback $29.95, ebook $23.96. Ezequiel A. González‐Ocantos, Shifting Legal Visions: Judicial Change and Human Rights Trials in Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016. Figures, tables, bibliography, index, 342 pp.; hardcover $110, paperback $35.99, ebook $88. Merrilee S. Grindle and Erin E. Goodman, eds., Reflections on Memory and Democracy. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2016. Photograph, 274 pp.; paperback $24.95. David Pion‐Berlin, Military Missions in Democratic Latin America. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016. Figures, tables, bibliography, index, 231 pp.; hardcover $105, ebook $79.99. Robert Gay, Bruno: Conversations with a Brazilian Drug Dealer. Durham: Duke University Press, 2015. Illustrations, chronology, notes, bibliography, index, 232 pp.; hardcover $89.95, paperback $14.95. Georgina Waylen, ed., Gender, Institutions, and Change in Bachelet's Chile. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016. Figure, tables, bibliographies, index, 259 pp.; hardcover $105, ebook $79.99. Dickie Davis, David Kilcullen, Greg Mills, and David Spencer, A Great Perhaps? Colombia: Conflict and Convergence. London: Hurst, 2015. Maps, figures, tables, notes, bibliography, index, 288 pp.; hardcover $39.40. Mary Helen Spooner and Steven Ullmann, Cuban Health Care: Utopian Dreams, Fragile Future. Lanham: Lexington Books, 2014. Appendixes, figures, tables, bibliography, index, 152 pp.; hardcover $83, ebook $78.50. John M. Kirk, Healthcare Without Borders: Understanding Cuban Medical Internationalism. Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 2015. Tables, bibliography, index, 376 pp.; hardcover $79.95. Christine J. Wade, Captured Peace: Elites and Peacebuilding in El Salvador. Athens: Ohio University Press, 2016. Illustrations, abbreviations, bibliography, index, 304 pp.; hardcover $69.95, paperback $39.95, ebook.