Risk-based crime statistics: A forecasting comparison for burglary and auto theft

A major criticism of official statistics on crime is that they use inappropriate bases for computing rates. Here we investigate whether computing crime rates that contain in their denominators the number of exposures to risk of a specific event (e.g., residential burglary and auto theft) provides more accurate forecasts than employing the traditional FBI denominators as a base (e.g., the number of auto thefts and burglaries per 100, 000 persons living in the United States). Single equation, macrodynamic structural models are fitted to both the “traditional” and “alternative” forms of computing auto theft and burglary rates over the twenty-seven-year period from 1947–1974, in order to determine how well they perform on statistical and substantive grounds over the estimation period. Ex-post forecasts of the 1975–1979 observed crime rates, used to gauge the accuracy of these models, reveal few differences between the two kinds of rates in terms of how well they forecast. Both types of rates forecast well with the exogenous variables employed here and lead to similar substantive conclusions. The forecasts of the “traditional” rates are consistently, but only slightly, more accurate than those of the “alternative” rates (in most cases the differences are less than 1 percent). It is argued that the criticism of official data may be overstated and that little benefit accrues from the modification of the rate base for some purposes.     

The role of mandates in third party intervention

Conclusion Mandate, as a noun, is the charge that authorizes and legitimizes an intervenor's actions. The intervenor may act at the bidding of the disputants or of third party stakeholders. Mandate provides a functional taxonomy of intervenors—from go-betweens to conciliators to mediators to arbitrators to dictators. Mandate affords a perspective for analyzing initiation, process, and evaluation of intervention. Useful heuristics have been proposed for categorizing the ways in which intervenors restricted to persuasion, such as mediators, can attempt to change beliefs. Future work might seek to determine conditions under which an intervenor's persuasive abilities may change beliefs about available alternatives, about the probability that the alternative will lead to certain outcomes, and about the value of the outcome. Sanda Kaufman is Assistant Professor of Urban Studies at the College of Urban Affairs, Cleveland State University, Cleveland, Ohio 44115.George T. Duncan is Professor of Statistics at the School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Penn. 15213.The authors thank Mark Kamlet for many valuable discussions, Linda Argote for her thoughtful suggestions, and Christina Duncan for her criticial reading.     

Adult children of alcoholics: An exploration of Axis II disorders and replicated dysfunctional family patterns

This study examined Axis II personality disorders and replicated dysfunctional family patterns in adult children of alcoholics (ACAs). Parental and spousal confirming and disconfirming communication patterns, and replicated physical, sexual, and emotional abuses were explored. Sixty ACAs were assessed using structured clinical interviews and self-report measures. Sixty-five percent met DSM-IIIR criteria for one or more Axis II disorders. Failure to feel confirmed (valued) by one's alcoholic parent was significantly associated with ACA Axis II disorders and alcohol abuse. Significant relationships between physical and sexual abuses and Axis II pathology were found. Replication of childhood abuse and dysfunctional communication was also noted.     

South Africa’s civil war, 1985–1995

The end of apartheid in South Africa is typically characterised as ‘peaceful’. However, between 1985 and 1995, South Africa experienced a civil war in which more than 20,000 people died. In this war, the African National Congress (ANC) implemented a strategy of ‘people’s war’ based on Vietnam’s experience while the government pursued a counterinsurgency strategy based on models employed by the United States. In the war’s second phase, the ANC and Inkatha employed unconventional tactics in a campaign to gain political and military control of disputed territory. Owing to its success in the war, the ANC was able to prevent its rivals from significantly limiting its power in the central government after 1994 as well as exclude Inkatha from operating in key areas even in its home province.     

Major Players: Bureaucracies In American Government

For more than 50 years, Herbert Kaufman has been an astute observer of public bureaucracies. In this essay, Kaufman draws on his extensive experience in explaining the role of public bureaucracies in the American political system. Kaufman was motivated to write the essay because of his concern that public bureaucracies are not given adequate attention in American government textbooks. We hope that PAR readers will use the essay to educate students and others about the important role of public bureaucracies in American government.—LDT     

Enhancing Community Leadership Negotiation Skills to Build Civic Capacity

Most intra‐ and interorganizational decision making entails negotiations, and even naturally talented negotiators can improve with training. Executive trainings for managers and leadership programs for publicly elected officials, public managers, and nongovernmental organizations frequently include negotiation modules. These efforts, however, have yet to reach community leaders who also need to develop their negotiation skills. We propose that members of disadvantaged low‐income communities who lack educational and economic opportunities, and are less able to advocate for their own interest, need to build and strengthen their civic capacity, including their negotiation skills, to become more effective parties to decisions affecting them. While many professionals and executives have access to training, such opportunities are less accessible to the leaders of these disadvantaged communities. Although such leaders draw from their own heuristic knowledge, skills, and abilities, they could also benefit from sharpening their negotiation skills. We propose that the multidimensional understanding of their community that members accumulate through direct experience is indispensable, nontransferable to outsiders, and not teachable through in‐class activities. Leaders with the ability to leverage knowledge and assets to connect effectively to community insiders as well as to outside people, institutions, and resources, however, possess some specific inherent personality traits as well an understanding of social structures, strategies, and agency, which can be taught and learned. Such skills as how to conduct negotiations around the table and away from it and how to identify community members who can help and how to rally them are also teachable. The cases were chosen to illustrate the knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs) that make these leaders effective in and beyond their communities. We highlight those KSAs that we think are teachable in the framework of a negotiation module in community leadership training to enhance civic capacity for community betterment.