Diffusion performance of major steel-making countries: alternative econometric tests

The purpose of this study is to compare the speed of diffusion in major steel-making countries. This is a cross-system analysis, involving industrial market countries (Western Europe, the United States, Canada, and Japan), quasi-market economies (selected newly industrializing countries, India), and the central planning states (the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe). The study reveals that at least in this, significant case, the latter countries are clearly inferior, i.e. slower. The article seeks the most accurate measure of speed of diffusion of one radical steel innovation, the oxygen process. The speed is estimated by regressing a logistic function not applied to the steel industry to date. Parameters of a logistic function are estimated first with linear least squares methods and then with nonlinear (or iterative) least squares, to establish which offers more accurate estimation than the widely used linear approach. It is shown that the iterative method produces a better statistical fit.