美中关系展望

中美关系是成熟、广泛、建设性和坦率的.双方知道如何处理一系列广泛问题才能使其不损害总体关系.但不幸的是,每一方仍对对方的长期意图存有疑虑.在2009年,双方仍须审慎对待既有的主要问题.但随着一个重要变化的出现,最重大的全球问题也正上升至美中关系的核心地位.其中最关键的两个问题分别是全球经济危机以及清洁能源和气候变化问题.美国希望大力加强与中国在这两大问题上的磋商与合作.这类合作可以把美中关系推进到一个新阶段,即两国关系更深入、更稳定、对世界其他地区更重要.随着时间的推移,这种合作还可以减少相互间对对方长期意图的疑虑.如果两国付出了努力,却在这些重大全球问题上未能展开合作,那么美中之间的不信任感或许会加深,两国关系或许会面临新的困难.     

China's Foreign Military Relations with Asia‐Pacific

The People's Liberation Army has always had a significant role in shaping and implementing the People's Republic of China's foreign policies. Over the past two decades, the PLA's role has increased considerably, and is likely to become even more important in the future as China develops its military capabilities and casts a broader shadow in the Asia‐Pacific region. The PLA's foreign relations program has several goals: to shape the international security environment in support of key Chinese national security objectives; to improve political and military relations with foreign countries; to enhance China's military and defense industry modernization; to provide military assistance to countries in the developing world; and, to acquire knowledge in modern military doctrine, operations, training, military medicine, administration, and a host of non-combat related areas. The PLA seeks to accomplish these goals through its military attache´ offices abroad and the use of an elaborate system of bilateral exchanges. Of these programs, the most visible relations involve high-level visits, functional exchanges, arms purchases, and ship visits.     

Dilemmas and Disappointments: Progressive Politics 1896–2016

Attempts at a Labour–Liberal Democrat Progressive Alliance came to nothing prior to the 1997 general election. The original idea of progressivism, first mooted in Britain in 1896, was an American one. Suggestions for a progressive alliance in the UK came from Lloyd George in 1914, and then again in 1931, each time with little effect. Nothing emerged after 1945 until the Lib–Lab pact negotiated by Callaghan and Steel in 1977, which led to electoral misfortune for both and the rise and fall of the SDP. In 2010 a coalition between the Lib Dems (under Clegg) and the Conservatives was always much the more likely option. Most Labour people no longer saw the Lib Dems as a party of the left. The Coalition Agreement in 2010 showed the idea of an alliance to be a centrist, elitist one with little grass‐roots support. Such an alliance would flourish through abstract pressure groups rather than popular democracy, especially with a Labour party led by Corbyn. In the US and the UK, progressivism went badly wrong in its politics: Theodore Roosevelt's New Nationalist campaign of 1912 divided American reformers fatally, as did Lloyd George's postwar Coalition in Britain after 1918. Now, even after Brexit, a progressive alliance seems further away than ever. The story of the ‘Progressive Dilemma’ remains one of unrealistic projects, invariably disappointed.     

Using Big Data and Algorithms to Determine the Effect of Geographically Targeted Advertising on Vote Intention: Evidence From the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

We develop a new conceptualization of political advertising effects by looking at the effect of the marginal advertising dollar during the heat of presidential campaigns. We argue that in contrast to other studies investigating effects of political ads, our approach is more apt to capture the natural environment in which political ads are encountered during a presidential campaign. We focus on the intense inundation of political ads voters are confronted with in swing states in the weeks leading up to the presidential election, and argue that it is unclear a priori whether we should expect advertising to affect vote intention in that critical circumstance. We empirically validate this hypothesis using a trove of data from the 2012 campaign: daily polling in media markets around the country, detailed data on all registered voters in the country, all TV advertisements by market and exact airtime, and the entire Twitter corpus. We find that neither overall increases in advertising spending nor partisan imbalances in spending expanded the candidates’ electorate. In fact, total Designated Market Area (DMA)-level spending significantly moderates a negative relationship between spending advantages and advantages in vote intention, suggesting a boomerang effect of additional spending late in the campaign. In closing, we discuss the ramifications of our findings for future research, and stress the importance of research tracking advertising effects.     

Long-Term Absenteeism From Work: Disentangling the Impact of Sector,Occupational Groups and Gender

Absenteeism is critical to organizational performance. Although absenteeism is higher in the public than in the private sector, surprisingly little public administration research has studied this topic. We investigate and test potential explanations for these differences: is it because the public sector employs more women and occupational groups that have higher absence? Using register data, we find that for six out of seven occupational groups long-term absenteeism is more likely for public than for private sector employees; generally, this is true for both genders. We discuss potential explanations and future avenues for investigating these sector differences.     

Enclosing the global commons: the convention on biological diversity and green grabbing

‘Green grabs,’ or the expropriation of land or resources for environmental purposes, constitute an important component of the current global land grab explosion. We argue that international environmental institutions are increasingly cultivating the terrain for green grabbing. As sites that circulate and sanction forms of knowledge, establish regulatory devices and programmatic targets, and align and articulate actors with these mechanisms, they structure emergent green market opportunities and practices. Drawing on the idea of primitive accumulation as a continual process, we examine the 10^th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity as one such institution.