Trajectory reconstructions. I: Trace evidence in flight

This paper reviews the use of trace evidence recovered from spent bullets in helping to establish trajectories. The use of information derived from such trace evidence combined with that from geometrical techniques of trajectory reconstruction and other data is discussed. Five cases are reviewed in which the analysis of trace evidential materials adhering to bullets was used to help reconstruct the event.     

Majority Support for Progressive Income Taxation with Corner Preferences

This paper studies voting over quadratic taxation when incomeis fixed and taxation non distortionary. The set of feasibletaxes is compact and self-interested voters have cornerpreferences. We first show that, if a majority winning taxpolicy exists, it involves maximum progressivity. We then givea necessary and sufficient condition on the incomedistribution for a majority winner to exist. This conditionappears to be satisfied for a large class of distributionfunctions.     

Taxes,Budgetary Rule and Majority Voting

This paper studies majority voting outcomes fora specific class of two-dimensional policies. One policyinstrument influences efficiency and the other redistribution.Absent the political process, the two dimensions can beaddressed separately. With a two dimensional vote, the twoaspects will interact in a non-trivial way. The illustrativepolicy we consider, requires taxing an externality-generatinggood and determining a budgetary rule which specifies theproportions of the tax proceeds that go to wage earners and tocapital owners. We show: First, a sequential vote wherein thetax rate is determined first and the budgetary rule second,always possesses an equilibrium and that this equilibrium isthe median-endowed individual's most-preferred policy. Second,the reverse sequential choice implies that the median-endowedindividual may, but need not, be decisive. Third, the``Shepsle procedure'' also implies that the equilibrium is thepolicy most favored by the median individual. Fourth, thisequilibrium constitutes, under certain circumstances, theCondorcet winner for the unrestricted simultaneous votinggame.     

Identifying the Persuasive Effects of Presidential Advertising

Do presidential campaign advertisements mobilize, inform, or persuade citizens? To answer this question we exploit a natural experiment, the accidental treatment of some individuals living in nonbattleground states during the 2000 presidential election to either high levels or one‐sided barrages of campaign advertisements simply because they resided in a media market adjoining a competitive state. We isolate the effects of advertising by matching records of locally broadcast presidential advertising with the opinions of National Annenberg Election Survey respondents living in these uncontested states. This approach remedies the observed correlation between advertising and both other campaign activities and previous election outcomes. In contrast to previous research, we find little evidence that citizens are mobilized by or learn from presidential advertisements, but strong evidence that they are persuaded by them. We also consider the causal mechanisms that facilitate persuasion and investigate whether some individuals are more susceptible to persuasion than others.     

Who Gains from Charitable Tax Credit Programs? The Arizona Model

The Bush administration and some states have promoted charitable tax credits as a way to increase private charitable giving, to support antipoverty programs, and to allow taxpayers to directly determine the utility and effectiveness of nonprofit services. Looking at Arizona's charitable tax credit program, this study assesses the strengths and limitations of this policy approach. Although charitable giving increased during the first two years of the program (1998 and 1999), tax returns from 2000 suggest it may be difficult to sustain these gains in a weak economy. Larger and better-known nonprofits and taxpayers who itemize their returns are the primary beneficiaries of the program. The program may put small but well-run organizations at a competitive disadvantage, weaken accountability in the sector, and pose administrative challenges to state departments of revenue. This analysis suggests that tax credits are not a panacea for the funding needs of nonprofits.     

Opus Dei and Mexico: Civil but Sinister?

Are voluntary organizations an essential ingredient of democratization, and if so, does that include the vast number of voluntary organizations, such as the Opus Dei, which appear to be authoritarian in their internal affairs? Do groups whose goals and internal structure have little relationship to the nurturing of democracy nevertheless contribute to a democratic culture? Discussing such questions is one of the main burdens of this article, which on that respect is a contribution to the now‐growing volume of literature about political transition from authoritarianism to democracy. The problems presented by such groups as Opus Dei are an illustrative case in weighing the contributions of Latin American volunteerism to democratization. The Catholic Church has had a more than passing interest in which nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) would be successful in Mexico and which would not. It has encouraged some NGOs—Opus Dei being, we think, a strong case in point.     

Drugs, Violence, and Development in Colombia: A Department-Level Analysis

Observers say that drug production fuels violence in Colombia, but does coca production explain different levels of violence? This article examines the relationship between coca production and guerrilla violence by reviewing national‐level data over time and studying Colombia by department, exploring the interactions among guerrilla violence, exports, development, and displacement. It uses historical analysis, cartographic visualization, and analysis of the trends in four high coca‐producing and four violent Colombian departments, along with a department‐level fixed effects model. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the department‐level analysis suggests that coca production is not the driving force of contemporary Colombian guerrilla violence. Instead, economic factors and coca eradication emerge as prominent explanatory factors.