1H‐NMR with Multivariate Analysis for Automobile Lubricant Comparison

Identification of suspected automobile‐related lubricants could provide valuable information in forensic cases. We examined that automobile lubricants might exhibit the chemometric characteristics to their individual usages. To compare the degree of clustering in the plots, we co‐plotted general industrial oils that were highly dissimilar with automobile lubricants in additive compositions. ¹H‐NMR spectroscopy was used with multivariate statistics as a tool for grouping, clustering, and identification of automobile lubricants in laboratory conditions. We analyzed automobile lubricants including automobile engine oils, automobile transmission oils, automobile gear oils, and motorcycle oils. In contrast to the general industrial oils, automobile lubricants showed relatively high tendencies of clustering to their usages. Our pilot study demonstrated that the comparison of known and questioned samples to their usages might be possible in forensic fields.     

Windows 7 Antiforensics: A Review and a Novel Approach

In this paper, we review literature on antiforensics published between 2010 and 2016 and reveal the surprising lack of up‐to‐date research on this topic. This research aims to contribute to this knowledge gap by investigating different antiforensic techniques for devices running Windows 7, one of the most popular operating systems. An approach which allows for removal or obfuscation of most forensic evidence is then presented. Using the Trojan software DarkComet RAT as a case study, we demonstrate the utility of our approach and that a Trojan Horse infection may be a legitimate possibility, even if there is no evidence of an infection on a seized computer's hard drive. Up‐to‐date information regarding how forensic artifacts can be compromised will allow relevant stakeholders to make informed decisions when deciding the outcome of legal cases involving digital evidence.     

A Bayesian Approach to Age‐at‐Death Estimation from Osteoarthritis of the Shoulder in Modern North Americans

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a marker of degeneration within the skeleton, frequently associated with age. This study quantifies the correlation between OA and age‐at‐death and investigates the utility of shoulder OA as a forensic age indicator using a modern North American sample of 206 individuals. Lipping, surface porosity, osteophyte formation, eburnation, and percentage of joint surface affected were recorded on an ordinal scale and summed to create composite scores that were assigned a specific phase. Spearman's correlation indicated a positive relationship between each composite score and age (right shoulder = 0.752; left shoulder = 0.734). Transition analysis revealed a tendency toward earlier degeneration of the right shoulder. Bayesian statistics generated phase‐related age estimates based on highest posterior density regions. Best age estimates were into the seventh decade at the 90th and 50th percentile. The proposed method supplements traditional techniques by providing age estimates beyond a homogenous 50+ age cohort.     

Religion and Political Tolerance in South Korea

This paper examines the relationship between individuals' religiosity and its impact on political tolerance in South Korea. Based on the results of survey data analysis, we find that there are inter-denominational as well as intra-denominational differences of religiosity that influence levels of political tolerance among South Koreans. In terms of the inter-denominational differences (the ethnoreligious thesis), we find that Buddhists tend to be more tolerant than Protestants, and Protestants tend to have the lowest level of political tolerance in South Korea. In terms of the intra-denominational differences (the culture wars thesis), religious traditionalists have a lower level of political tolerance than religious modernists in South Korea. This paper argues that there is a statistically significant relationship between individuals' religiosity and their level of political tolerance, and that a composite model (combining the ethno-religious model and the culture wars model) is the best way of investigating such a relationship in the Korean context.     

Trade at the margin: Estimating the economic implications of preferential trade agreements

Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) have become the most prevalent form of international trade liberalization in recent decades, even though it remains far from clear what their effects on economies and their key units, firms, are. This paper evaluates the distributional consequences of trade liberalization within industries differentiating two distinct aspects in which trade liberalization could result in higher trade flows: the intensive vs. the extensive margin of trade. In particular, we analyze whether trade liberalization leads to increased trade flows because either firms trade more volume in products they have already traded before (intensive margin) or because they start to trade products they have not traded previously (extensive margin), or both. We test these arguments for the Dominican Republic–Central America–United States Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) and exporting firms based in Costa Rica for the time-period 2008–2014. The results of our study suggest that the effects of CAFTA-DR depend not only on whether we analyze the extensive versus the intensive margin of trade but also whether the product in question is homogenous or differentiated and whether the exporting firm under analysis is small or large. In particular, we find support for the theoretical expectation that firms exporting heterogeneous products, such as textiles, gain from trade agreements, such as CAFTA-DR, in that they can export more varieties of their products. Yet at the same time, they tend to lose at the intensive margin by a reduction in their trade volume while the opposite pattern occurs for firms exporting homogenous products.     

International Conflict,International Security Environment,and Military Coups

Why do some countries repeatedly experience military coups while others seem immune? Are countries more prone to military coups when faced with external threats? The answers to these questions still remain contested: While several scholars hold that countries facing external threats are more vulnerable to coups, others argue that such countries are actually more secure from coups. I argue that by failing to distinguish between immediate and acute threats, caused by wars and militarized conflicts, and chronic threats from a state’s international security environment, the existing literature ignores the possibility that these two types of external threats differently affect the likelihood of coups. I propose that wars and militarized conflicts, infrequent and often short lived, decrease coup propensity, while a threatening security environment increases coup risk. I find strong supporting evidence that the presence of chronic international threats increases the likelihood of coups while acute international conflicts lower that likelihood.     

To Tell the Truth: Ad Watch Coverage,Ad Tone,and the Accuracy of Political Advertising

This study examined the relationships among newspaper ad watch coverage, ad tone, and the accuracy of political advertising. A sample of political advertisements (N = 160) was drawn from the Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG) database and other sources for eight U.S. Senate races. Two experts on each race evaluated the ads’ accuracy and their ideological portrayals of candidates, while trained coders analyzed other aspects of the ads. Ad watch coverage from these races (ad watch N = 109) also was content-analyzed. The number of ad watches overall in a race and the number that explicitly criticized ads were positively related with the level of accuracy of political ads and with a tendency to portray their favored candidates closer to their actual ideological position—but the overall number of ad watches also was positively related with a tendency for ads to portray opponents as more extreme than their positions warranted. Ad watches usually tend to scrutinize negative ads more, but ad watch coverage in this study was unrelated with ad tone and with the number of negative ads in a race. Positive ads were rated as more accurate but also more prone to exaggerate the supported candidates’ centrism compared to other ads. Normative and practical implications are discussed.

We’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact checkers.

— Neil Newhouse, pollster for the Mitt Romney 2012 campaign     

Economic crises and augmenting financial bureaucratic power in South Korea

Despite negative public opinion, the role of the Korean government has expanded, while overcoming two rounds of global financial crises. The phenomenon of the re-swelling state is mainly attributed to the strengthening of the central bureaucracy, in particular the financial bureaucracy, rather than the whole central government or the state. The argument of the strengthening of the ‘state’ or the ‘government’ after economic crises might be subject to the error of generalization. Through the two rounds of economic crises, the financial bureaucracy succeeded in acquiring the authority of market supervision and industrial support. In consequence, the bureaucracy's institutional supremacy within the government grew less challenged. The central bureaucracy was no longer the loyal servant to the President. It has reinforced its institutional strength and autonomy vis-a-vis the President, the National Assembly, the Central Bank and civil society, under the pretext of building up the rational and autonomous market and democratic politics.     

The Polarization of American Environmental Policy: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of Senate and House Votes, 1971–2013

The partisan polarization of environmental policy is an important development in American politics, but it remains unclear how much such polarization reflects voter preferences, as opposed to disagreements between partisan elites. We conduct a regression discontinuity analysis of all major environmental and energy votes in the Senate and the House, 1971–2013. In total, we have 368,974 individual roll call votes by senators and House Representatives. The causal effect of electing a Democrat instead of a Republican in close elections on pro‐environmental voting is large: when a Democrat wins, pro‐environmental voting increases by over 40 percentage points. Because of the quasi‐experimental research design, this difference cannot be attributed to the median voter's preferences. Next, we test hypotheses concerning possible explanations for the elite partisan conflict. The Democrat–Republican gap is the widest when fossil fuel interests make contributions exclusively to Republicans and when state‐level public opinion is polarized.     

Executive-legislative competition in agenda setting: an analysis of longitudinal changes in South Korea

The historical patterns of executive dominance in national policymaking have undergone a rapid transformation in South Korea. In the context of an emerging institutional rivalry between the executive and legislative branches in forming national policies, this study examines a causal nexus among the agenda power parity, jurisdictional complexity, and the scope and diversity of the national agenda space. A series of data analyses on various original measures of the key variables reveal that the two dimensions of the national agenda space have been reshaped via different causal processes. While the rise of the legislative power in agenda setting and the complexity of legislative jurisdictions tend to increase the scope of the national agenda space, democratic transition subsumes the influence of all other factors in increasing the diversity of the national agenda space.