Be Careful What You Wish For: Security Challenges Facing the Korean Peninsula During a Potential Unification Process

There is a lacuna in the literature analyzing the mid-term (6-24 months) period after a DPRK contingency that results in the Pyongyang regime’s relatively sudden and unmanaged fall. This article helps fill that gap, particularly with respect to security issues that would challenge Korean unification efforts during such a period. Following an Introduction, Section I first makes the case for a DPRK contingency being the most plausible end to the Pyongyang regime. Assuming the scenarios from Section I, Section II addresses the question of what critical issues a unifying Korea will face over the mid-term, and how dealing with these challenges will condition the type of end-state that a unified Korea will embody. In particular we examine three challenges: (a) mid-term security provision related to potential weapons proliferation, cyber-security, organized criminality, and human security; (b) the foundations of institution-building through measures dealing with issues of transitional justice, disputed land title claims, and generating broad domestic stakeholder buy-in in a unifying Korea; (c) the disposition of Korea’s strategic alignment in a Northeast Asia that will have undergone a major alteration of the regional system. Section III concludes with policy recommendations concerning what efforts should be made now to prepare for the situations described in Sections I and II.     

President Roh Moo-Hyun’s Last Interview and the Roh Moo-Hyun Phenomenon in South Korea

This commentary discusses what is popularly regarded as the “Roh Moo-hyun Phenomenon” in today’s South Korean society, as an attempt to shed some light on an interview which the late President Roh Moo-hyun had with the author in December 2008. This interview is unique not only because it became Roh’s last interview conducted before his suicide on May 23, 2009, but also because it provides Roh’s candid critical self-assessment on his own presidency, especially regarding his role in both domestic politics and the inter-Korean relationship, and the Korea-US relationship during his term in office, as well as commenting on Japan’s approach to Northeast Asian regional politics. Reflecting on Roh’s star-like rise to the presidency and fall from grace, this commentary alerts readers that Roh’s last interview needs to be considered within the context of the Roh Moo-Hyun Phenomenon, especially in regard to the 2017 presidential election, because it will directly affect the fate of not just the “pro-Roh group,” with the largest share of the opposition in today’s Korean society, but the Korean people as a whole at a time when the country’s many leading civic groups are desperately seeking a “Great Transformation.”     

Pseudo Change: China’s Strategic Calculations and Policy Toward North Korea after Pyongyang’s 4th Nuclear Test

After North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test in January 2016, China’s response was stern enough for certain China analysts to posit that the Middle Kingdom’s approach to its Cold War ally was changing. In reality, however, China’s imports from North Korea, especially coal, a crucial mineral for the North’s income but banned by United Nations (UN) Resolution 2270, did not decrease. Politically, China also strived to maintain mutual relations with North Korea. Based on its strategic and other cost-benefit calculations, Beijing needs to maintain economic and political ties with Pyongyang and thus has no incentive to seriously observe the U.N. resolution. In this context, China is expected to virtually repeat the gestures it made in the past in dealing with the North. Under these circumstances, sanctioning North Korea through China is not considered a viable option in tackling the nuclear issue; rather, the USA and South Korea should change their policy approach toward this problem.     

The Impact of Management Capacity on Government Innovation in Korea: An Empirical Study

ABSTRACT

A common assertion within public management is that management capacity drives policy outcomes. This study tests that argument, focusing on an important policy outcome—innovation. Data were drawn from the Korean government to examine the impact of government's management capacity for the adoption and implementation of innovation. The results confirm that both managerial behaviors and structures are drivers of government innovation. The adoption and implementation of innovative projects require full-scale management capacity, encompassing innovative leadership, a quality workforce, appropriate structures/systems, and the ability to manage external influences. These results suggest that public management capacity drives innovation in government by changing managerial behaviors and structures. Implications of these results for managing government innovation are discussed.     

A Computational Model of the Citizen as Motivated Reasoner: Modeling the Dynamics of the 2000 Presidential Election

A computational model of political attitudes and beliefs is developed that incorporates contemporary psychological theory with well-documented findings from electoral behavior. We compare this model, John Q. Public (JQP), to a Bayesian learning model via computer simulations of observed changes in candidate evaluations over the 2000 presidential campaign. In these simulations, JQP reproduces responsiveness, persistence, and polarization of political attitudes, while the Bayesian learning model has difficulty accounting for persistence and polarization. We conclude that “motivated reasoning”—the discounting of information that challenges priors along with the uncritical acceptance of attitude-consistent information—is the reason our model can better account for persistence and polarization in candidate evaluations.     

作为反体制运动的韩国民族主义

本文试图站在历史的角度厘清现代韩国民族主义反体制的性质。历史上，韩国的民族主义是以抵抗国家反体制运动的身份确立自己的地位的。开港以后，当时的统治阶层们试图建立近代国家。这种尝试失败后，国家的权力被日本抢走。作为日益走向衰亡的国家的替代品，一部分知识分子鼓吹由精神构成的国家、国粹，而作为维持它的主体，则提出了民族或者同胞的概念。因此，民族成了建立国家的主体，并在殖民地时代以独立运动、在解放后的分裂局面下以统一运动的形态确立了自己的地位。     

Investigating the effects of peer association and parental influence on adolescent substance use: A study of adolescents in South Korea

The central purpose of this study was to examine whether peer influence has a greater impact on adolescent substance use than parental influence. This was a comparative study that examined cross-cultural applicability by applying the established findings and theoretical suggestions, such as social learning theory and social bonding theory in the United States, to a traditionally non-Western social context (South Korea). Although the theories have firmly established their explicability on adolescent delinquency and substance use in U.S. society, there are relatively few empirical studies to establish its generalizability in societies outside the U.S. and even fewer in such traditionally non-Western societies as South Korea. Using a nationwide sample of self-reported data from 3,188 junior high school students, estimations from multivariate analyses were used to compare the relative importance of peer and parental influence on adolescent substance (alcohol and tobacco) use. The findings from the current study supported both social learning theory and social bonding theory, suggesting that both peer and parental influence are significant in predicting the risks of adolescent substance use. Although parental influence was slightly greater than peer factors, the difference was negligible. The limitations, the unique social context of Korean society, and future research implications are then discussed.     

information technology and the political world: the impacts of it on capabilities,interactions, orientations and values

A framework is developed for analyzing the impacts of information technology on politics and the public sector. By analyzing the findings in all relevant empirical research studies published in 16 scholarly journals during a six-year period, the incidence and direction of key impacts of IT are specified. In general, there is a limited number of empirical studies, with more case studies than studies based on survey-research, more analyses of U.S. politics and government than ones on other advanced democracies, and more focus on the local level than the national level. Overall, the research concludes that the impacts of information technology are generally positive, especially regarding the enhancement of capabilities, such as efficiency, effectiveness, and information quality. Impacts are more mixed on patterns of individual and group interactions and on orientations toward decision and action. The area in which the research identifies the most negative effects is the impacts on values, such as privacy, legal security and job enhancement.