基于地区形势认识模式，东北亚地区合作应对核灾难

具有地缘政治学上特殊关系的韩中日三国，在核安全及应对核灾难时，不该仅仅从本国利益出发，而应该从区域公共财产的层面考虑问题。福岛核辐射事件呼吁三国加强区域合作的紧急需要。应对核灾难的东北亚地区合作，不是仅从简单的多变合作关系框架出发，而是为了保证作为地区公共财产安全的核安全，作为地区形势认识模式，提出了系统而具体的核灾难应对模式，提出了将制度性框架和具体合作方案进行系统联结的理论模式。基于Endsely的地区形势认识模式，地区形势认识模式由认识-理解-预测这三个阶段组成。在实践层面，地区形势认识模式可以被应用为建设系统而具体的东北亚应对核灾难的合作机制。为了构筑基于地区形势认识的东北亚合作体系，首先要在保证三国合作连续性的政治意志，其实要设定围绕地区合作方向性的竞争结构及与其他地区的关系，最后，为确保三国合作的有效性，有必要设立更加具体而有约束力的制度措施。     

The Diagnostic Frame in National Security Evaluations

In clinical and most forensic evaluations, “diagnosis” connotes the expectation of a DSM‐5 or ICD‐10 formally labeled mental condition. When the task is to evaluate the security risk a person's psychological makeup presents to an institution, such a molar diagnosis can blind the clinician and elevate the risk to a security agency. When “diagnosis” connotes achieving an understanding of a person's behavior that has raised security concerns, then a different conceptualization of the diagnostic process is required. Unlike the clinical situation, the evaluation is not being performed to benefit the person but for the purpose of assessing risk to an agency. The differences this introduces involve every aspect of the evaluation and changes the type of diagnosis expected. Not appreciating these differences can cause the clinician to fail in the task of assessing psychological tendencies that affect national security.     

The Effect of Age Structure on the Abrogation of Military Alliances

Scholars of alliance politics have ignored a potentially important factor that shapes foreign policy: the age structure of a state. In this article, we argue that an alliance member is more likely to terminate the alliance in violation of the terms when the state’s youth ratio is high. The demographic pressure of a high youth ratio raises potential for political instability domestically, which in turn increases the risk of radical foreign policy changes. We demonstrate the effects of a state’s age structure on its alliance policy by examining alliance termination by violation from 1950 to 2000. Through quantitative analysis, we find that youth ratio is a strong and significant predictor of alliance abrogation. A brief examination of several examples illustrates two paths by which the pressure created by a high youth ratio contributes to political instability and results in alliance abrogation—leadership change that brings about a new foreign policy and appeasement of the population through abrogation of an unpopular alliance.     

International Signaling and Economic Sanctions

Do economic sanctions serve international signaling purposes? A fully structural statistical model that employs a signaling game as a statistical model is used to investigate the existence of signaling effects of sanctions. Estimation results suggest that sanctions fail to work as a costly signal. The cheapness of sanctions prevents a target state from being able to distinguish a resolute sender state from a sender who is bluffing. When sanctions are imposed, a target rarely updates its initial evaluation of the sender state’s resolve, much less than when a military challenge is observed.     

The Clean Development Mechanism: A Bane or a Boon for Developing Countries?

We analyse the gains to developing countries from the participation in the CDM during the Kyoto period (until 2010) in the event an emissions trading (ET) regime exists in the post-Kyoto period (2010–20). We show that the developing countries will always be better-off participating in the CDM if the emissions quota they get in the post-Kyoto period is not linked to their baseline emissions. However if their quota equals (or is related to) their baseline emissions, CDM participation strategy may be a preferred alternative only if the CDM price is high enough to off-set the losses of the post-Kyoto period (during ET regime) due to participation in the CDM. We simulate the CDM and ET in the Kyoto and post-Kyoto period and show that with the reduction targets given in the Kyoto Protocol for Annex B countries, participation in the CDM is beneficial to non-Annex B (developing) countries, even if their emissions quota in the post-Kyoto period (during ET regime) is determined by their baseline emissions. Abatement supply price in the post-Kyoto period however turns out to be crucial factor in this case.     

An impossibility theorem for spatial models

This paper examines the implications for social welfare functions of restricting the domain of individual preferences to type-one preferences. Type-one preferences assume that each person has a most preferred alternative in a euclidean space and that alternatives are ranked according to their euclidean distance from this point. The result is that if we impose Arrow's conditions of collective rationality, IIA, and the Pareto principle on the social welfare function, then it must be dictatorial. This result may not seem surprising, but it stands in marked contrast to the problem considered by Gibbard and Satterthwaite of finding a social-choice function. With unrestricted domain, under the Gibbard-Satterthwaite hypotheses, choices must be dictatorial. With type-one preferences this result has been previously shown not to be true. This finding identifies a significant difference between the Arrow and Gibbard-Satterthwaite problems.     

Modeling complexity: Using dynamic simulation to link regression and case studies

The success or failure of programs typically depends on how numerous variables interact over time. Individuals adjust their strategies continuously on the basis of prior events. Unintended consequences abound. And the very meaning of success or failure may change over time. Yet the studies that command the most influence in the policy community are typically based on multiple regression, a technique whose capacity to capture these complexities is sharply limited. Accordingly, findings based on regression studies and findings based on the study of individual cases commonly conflict. Dynamic simulation modeling can serve as a methodological bridge between case studies and regression-based studies of policy systems. The results of some early experiments along these lines indicate how the bridge can be fashioned.     

Russo-Japanese Rivalry Over Korean Buffer at the Beginning of the 20th Century and its Implications

At the beginning of the 20th century, Russia and Japan could not reach a lasting compromise over Korea. Several rounds of diplomacy for Korean neutrality or spheres of influence did not result in any lasting agreement. Due to the mutual suspicion and opportunistic searches for expansion into Korea and Manchuria, they could not reach an enduring understanding on Korea. Korea also could not play a role as an independent buffer state due to its own weakness. In conjunction with Japan's consistent efforts to establish an exclusive control over the whole of Korea, war broke out in 1904 and Korea became a protectorate of Japan. The developments in the Far East at the beginning of the 20th century hold implications on current northeast Asian security as well.     

Unearthing the realities of rape: Utilising Victorian newspaper reportage to fill in the contextual gaps

This article examines the realities of rape and sexual offences and their treatment through the legal process by use of media reportage, Victorian and modern; using this to contextualise and so to challenge the official record. The starting point is an identification of what constitutes ‹best’ evidence for an exploration of rape and sexual offences – evidence that permits better insights into the impact of such offences on the individuals involved, as well as into the factors governing the ability of the criminal justice process to promote the conviction rate in rape cases. By using a comparative historical perspective, and using media presentations (especially newspaper reportage) this article shows the enduring nature of stereotypes which govern the decisions reached by legal personnel and by jurors – stereotypes which have, since the Victorian period, remained profoundly gendered in ways that are unhelpful to the ‹victims’.