What to Do about Missing Values in Time‐Series Cross‐Section Data

Applications of modern methods for analyzing data with missing values, based primarily on multiple imputation, have in the last half‐decade become common in American politics and political behavior. Scholars in this subset of political science have thus increasingly avoided the biases and inefficiencies caused by ad hoc methods like listwise deletion and best guess imputation. However, researchers in much of comparative politics and international relations, and others with similar data, have been unable to do the same because the best available imputation methods work poorly with the time‐series cross‐section data structures common in these fields. We attempt to rectify this situation with three related developments. First, we build a multiple imputation model that allows smooth time trends, shifts across cross‐sectional units, and correlations over time and space, resulting in far more accurate imputations. Second, we enable analysts to incorporate knowledge from area studies experts via priors on individual missing cell values, rather than on difficult‐to‐interpret model parameters. Third, because these tasks could not be accomplished within existing imputation algorithms, in that they cannot handle as many variables as needed even in the simpler cross‐sectional data for which they were designed, we also develop a new algorithm that substantially expands the range of computationally feasible data types and sizes for which multiple imputation can be used. These developments also make it possible to implement the methods introduced here in freely available open source software that is considerably more reliable than existing algorithms.     

Computer‐Assisted Keyword and Document Set Discovery from Unstructured Text

The (unheralded) first step in many applications of automated text analysis involves selecting keywords to choose documents from a large text corpus for further study. Although all substantive results depend on this choice, researchers usually pick keywords in ad hoc ways that are far from optimal and usually biased. Most seem to think that keyword selection is easy, since they do Google searches every day, but we demonstrate that humans perform exceedingly poorly at this basic task. We offer a better approach, one that also can help with following conversations where participants rapidly innovate language to evade authorities, seek political advantage, or express creativity; generic web searching; eDiscovery; look‐alike modeling; industry and intelligence analysis; and sentiment and topic analysis. We develop a computer‐assisted (as opposed to fully automated or human‐only) statistical approach that suggests keywords from available text without needing structured data as inputs. This framing poses the statistical problem in a new way, which leads to a widely applicable algorithm. Our specific approach is based on training classifiers, extracting information from (rather than correcting) their mistakes, and summarizing results with easy‐to‐understand Boolean search strings. We illustrate how the technique works with analyses of English texts about the Boston Marathon bombings, Chinese social media posts designed to evade censorship, and others.     

Green appropriations through shifting contours of authority and property on a pastoralist commons

The dynamics of customary land rights and displacement among east African pastoralists have been the subject of extensive scholarly inquiry. Displacement to make way for other land uses, government-led privatization schemes, endogenous subdivision to defend land against outsiders, and progressive enclosure of private land in the context of the recent ‘land rush’ are some of the documented trajectories of land tenure change. Less explored is how exogenous authority systems gain traction within common property regimes to re-shape the contours of property. Laikipia, Kenya presents an ideal context for this research given the uniquely ambitious effort to conserve globally significant wildlife on private land. We focus on a group ranch owned collectively by Maa-speaking pastoralists for whom formal title was secured with the support of outside actors vested in conservation, and coupled with efforts to provide financial incentives for conservation. Findings suggest the new governance structure established in the context of land titling has become a pathway through which outside authority gains traction – with consequences for property, sovereignty and the traction of green agendas. Findings deepen understanding of how shifting authority shapes processes of alienation and legitimation, and contribute to ongoing debates about land grabs, tenure formalization and neoliberal approaches to conservation.     

The Psychosocial Well-Being of African Refugees in Winnipeg: Critical Stressors and Coping Strategies

Using a photovoice approach, this study explores stressing factors for African refugees after resettlement in Canada and the strategies they adopt to cope. The study used a purposive sampling procedure to recruit 15 participants (8 women and 7 men). Participants took part in a three-phase process of picture taking, one-on-one interviews, and focus group discussions on the selected pictures. Thematic analysis was applied to analyze the data. Identified stressors included social relationship ruptures, lack of understanding of the new culture, unemployment, and navigating unfamiliar laws and regulations. Coping strategies and recommendations for policies and best practices are discussed.     

Future Uncertainty as a Challenge to Law's Programmes: The Dilemma of Parental Disputes

The article poses the problem of the need for judges to make 'right' decisions. It then describes how judges have attempted to meet this requirement in difficult cases concerning parental disputes over contact with children where there have been allegations of domestic violence. Applying Luhmann's concepts of the legal system, law's function, law's coding and law's programmes (Das Recht der Gesellschaft (Society's Law) 1997), offers a very different perspective on the issue to that of the judiciary or legal commentators who tend to see the issue of the law, determining, with expert help, what is best for the child. Law's function of stabilizing expectations over time obliges it to deal with all matters that come before the courts through the application of 'conditional programmes' and prevents it from applying the 'purpose oriented programmes' of politics and those who see the issue in terms of ideological conflict.     

The application of a simple RIA technique for the detection of 19-OH F1 alpha/F2 alpha prostaglandin, a specific semen marker, in semen contaminated vaginal swabs: time since intercourse studies

The specificity of the 19-OH F1 alpha/F2 alpha prostaglandin antisera for the detection of semen in seminal/vaginal mixtures, has been evaluated. Using a parallel curve test we found that the antibody showed a high specificity for these seminal prostaglandins in seminal/vaginal mixtures at concentrations of between 2 pg and 40 pg/100 microliter. The precision of the assay has been improved by the use of a donkey-anti-rabbit ferritin-bound second antibody. The application of this detection system makes it possible to complete an assay within 4.5 h. A survey of 50 semen-free vaginal swabs obtained from 3 donors, taken throughout the menstrual cycle, showed no trace of these prostaglandins. They were also not detected in the vaginal secretions of two further donors who were undergoing medication. Using only 10-microliter aliquots of a seminal/vaginal swab extract, prepared in 500 microliter, it was possible to detect semen up to approx. 80 h after one sexual act.     

A "politically robust" experimental design for public policy evaluation, with application to the Mexican universal health insurance program.

We develop an approach to conducting large-scale randomized public policy experiments intended to be more robust to the political interventions that have ruined some or all parts of many similar previous efforts. Our proposed design is insulated from selection bias in some circumstances even if we lose observations; our inferences can still be unbiased even if politics disrupts any two of the three steps in our analytical procedures; and other empirical checks are available to validate the overall design. We illustrate with a design and empirical validation of an evaluation of the Mexican Seguro Popular de Salud (Universal Health Insurance)program we are conducting. Seguro Popular, which is intended to grow to provide medical care, drugs, preventative services, and financial health protection to the 50 million Mexicans without health insurance, is one of the largest health reforms of any country in the last two decades. The evaluation is also large scale, constituting one of the largest policy experiments to date and what may be the largest randomized health policy experiment ever.     

THE ROLE OF THE JUDICIARY IN RELATION TO PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION*

The relationship between the judiciary and public administration is founded in the constitutional principles which lie at the basis of our system of government. The three branches or arms of government, as they are known to constitutional law, are the legislative, the executive and the judicial. They are said to be equal and coordinate. There is a complex constitutional relationship between the three arms of government which does not always follow a consistent pattern. It is marked somewhat paradoxically both by mutual independence and interdependence. Public administration is carried on by the executive branch.