Be Careful What You Wish For: Security Challenges Facing the Korean Peninsula During a Potential Unification Process

There is a lacuna in the literature analyzing the mid-term (6-24 months) period after a DPRK contingency that results in the Pyongyang regime’s relatively sudden and unmanaged fall. This article helps fill that gap, particularly with respect to security issues that would challenge Korean unification efforts during such a period. Following an Introduction, Section I first makes the case for a DPRK contingency being the most plausible end to the Pyongyang regime. Assuming the scenarios from Section I, Section II addresses the question of what critical issues a unifying Korea will face over the mid-term, and how dealing with these challenges will condition the type of end-state that a unified Korea will embody. In particular we examine three challenges: (a) mid-term security provision related to potential weapons proliferation, cyber-security, organized criminality, and human security; (b) the foundations of institution-building through measures dealing with issues of transitional justice, disputed land title claims, and generating broad domestic stakeholder buy-in in a unifying Korea; (c) the disposition of Korea’s strategic alignment in a Northeast Asia that will have undergone a major alteration of the regional system. Section III concludes with policy recommendations concerning what efforts should be made now to prepare for the situations described in Sections I and II.     

President Roh Moo-Hyun’s Last Interview and the Roh Moo-Hyun Phenomenon in South Korea

This commentary discusses what is popularly regarded as the “Roh Moo-hyun Phenomenon” in today’s South Korean society, as an attempt to shed some light on an interview which the late President Roh Moo-hyun had with the author in December 2008. This interview is unique not only because it became Roh’s last interview conducted before his suicide on May 23, 2009, but also because it provides Roh’s candid critical self-assessment on his own presidency, especially regarding his role in both domestic politics and the inter-Korean relationship, and the Korea-US relationship during his term in office, as well as commenting on Japan’s approach to Northeast Asian regional politics. Reflecting on Roh’s star-like rise to the presidency and fall from grace, this commentary alerts readers that Roh’s last interview needs to be considered within the context of the Roh Moo-Hyun Phenomenon, especially in regard to the 2017 presidential election, because it will directly affect the fate of not just the “pro-Roh group,” with the largest share of the opposition in today’s Korean society, but the Korean people as a whole at a time when the country’s many leading civic groups are desperately seeking a “Great Transformation.”     

Pseudo Change: China’s Strategic Calculations and Policy Toward North Korea after Pyongyang’s 4th Nuclear Test

After North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test in January 2016, China’s response was stern enough for certain China analysts to posit that the Middle Kingdom’s approach to its Cold War ally was changing. In reality, however, China’s imports from North Korea, especially coal, a crucial mineral for the North’s income but banned by United Nations (UN) Resolution 2270, did not decrease. Politically, China also strived to maintain mutual relations with North Korea. Based on its strategic and other cost-benefit calculations, Beijing needs to maintain economic and political ties with Pyongyang and thus has no incentive to seriously observe the U.N. resolution. In this context, China is expected to virtually repeat the gestures it made in the past in dealing with the North. Under these circumstances, sanctioning North Korea through China is not considered a viable option in tackling the nuclear issue; rather, the USA and South Korea should change their policy approach toward this problem.     

A Computational Model of the Citizen as Motivated Reasoner: Modeling the Dynamics of the 2000 Presidential Election

A computational model of political attitudes and beliefs is developed that incorporates contemporary psychological theory with well-documented findings from electoral behavior. We compare this model, John Q. Public (JQP), to a Bayesian learning model via computer simulations of observed changes in candidate evaluations over the 2000 presidential campaign. In these simulations, JQP reproduces responsiveness, persistence, and polarization of political attitudes, while the Bayesian learning model has difficulty accounting for persistence and polarization. We conclude that “motivated reasoning”—the discounting of information that challenges priors along with the uncritical acceptance of attitude-consistent information—is the reason our model can better account for persistence and polarization in candidate evaluations.     

Investigating the effects of peer association and parental influence on adolescent substance use: A study of adolescents in South Korea

The central purpose of this study was to examine whether peer influence has a greater impact on adolescent substance use than parental influence. This was a comparative study that examined cross-cultural applicability by applying the established findings and theoretical suggestions, such as social learning theory and social bonding theory in the United States, to a traditionally non-Western social context (South Korea). Although the theories have firmly established their explicability on adolescent delinquency and substance use in U.S. society, there are relatively few empirical studies to establish its generalizability in societies outside the U.S. and even fewer in such traditionally non-Western societies as South Korea. Using a nationwide sample of self-reported data from 3,188 junior high school students, estimations from multivariate analyses were used to compare the relative importance of peer and parental influence on adolescent substance (alcohol and tobacco) use. The findings from the current study supported both social learning theory and social bonding theory, suggesting that both peer and parental influence are significant in predicting the risks of adolescent substance use. Although parental influence was slightly greater than peer factors, the difference was negligible. The limitations, the unique social context of Korean society, and future research implications are then discussed.     

Credible plea bargaining

This paper demonstrates that the role of plea bargaining as a screening device depends neither on the commitment to trial nor on the commitment to some prosecutorial expenditures. In a situation where a prosecutor cannot commit to trial nor spends resources to obtain more evidence, I find a semi-separating equilibrium in which the prosecutor makes an offer that can be accepted only by the guilty defendant with some positive probability, and then, if the offer is rejected, he proceeds to trial, based on his updated belief. I also consider the prosecutor’s decision to choose the amount of (per capita) prosecutorial expenditures both in the commitment case and in the noncommitment case, and argue that an increase in the per capita expenditure may reduce the gross expenditures on prosecution by lowering the chance of trial.     

Alterations of Length Heteroplasmy in Mitochondrial DNA Under Various Amplification Conditions*

Abstract: There are several areas within mitochondrial DNA that show length heteroplasmy. If the heteroplasmy pattern is unique and consistent for each person, it may be used to support an interpretation of exclusion in identity testing. We investigated whether the length heteroplasmy pattern would be consistent under different amplification conditions. We also determined whether various amplification parameters would affect the homopolymeric cytosine stretches (C‐stretch) in HV1. Monoclonal samples tended to be heteroplasmic after amplification. After several repetitions, C‐stretch patterns of all samples were inconsistent even under the same amplification conditions. Increased PCR cycles and high template concentrations resulted in a more frequent heteroplasmic tendency. These amplification parameters seem to have little effect if samples are not long enough in C‐stretch or total length of the segment from nt 16180 to nt 16193. It is suggested that the pattern of length heteroplasmy cannot be used as an additional polymorphic marker.     

韩国的医师说明义务与患者知情同意权

医师的说明义务与患者的知情同意权是医疗关系的核心内容,并成为医疗责任认定的主要依据。韩国对于这一对权利义务关系的认识经历了从传统医疗模式向人道模式的转变,使得患者从医疗关系的客体转变为主体。这一转变不仅改变了患者的地位,更体现出法律的进步。然而,单纯强调患者的知情同意权将会导致医师实施保守治疗,因此,平衡医师的说明义务与患者知情同意权之间的关系显得尤为重要。     

"I want you to listen to my side of this": is there a role for mediation early in the health care complaints process?

The resolution of disputes that arise out of the provision of health care services has historically taken place at an institutional level, with the hospital administrative unit conducting the process, or through the legal system with the parties traversing the relevant courts and tribunals. Increasingly, the wide range of decisions which must be made in relation to the delivery of patient and client care and the broad scope of variations in expectations as to what a health service is capable of delivering, are providing fertile ground for conflict. This column considers the potential role of mediation as an early intervention strategy to resolve health care disputes.     

Testing the Moderating Effect of Parent–Adolescent Communication on the Acculturation Gap–Distress Relation in Korean American Families

Although the acculturation gap generally has been associated with poor mental health outcomes among Asian American children, some studies have failed to find a significant relationship between the gap and distress. Using two different methods of operationalizing the gap between mothers and their children, the current study addressed this tension in the literature by testing the following hypotheses in a sample of Korean American families. It was hypothesized that mother–adolescent discrepancies in acculturation and enculturation levels would be associated with youth internalizing and externalizing symptoms and that parent–adolescent communication would moderate the gap–distress relationship. Multi-informant questionnaires were administered to 77 Korean American mother–adolescent dyads from the Midwest. Surprisingly, results indicated that consonance in low levels of mother–adolescent enculturation was associated with the highest levels of externalizing symptoms (interaction term method). Adolescents’ perception of communication with their fathers significantly moderated the relationship between the enculturation gap and internalizing symptoms, such that in dyads with a greater enculturation gap, less perceived open communication with fathers was associated with more internalizing symptoms (difference score method). Clinically, the findings indicate a potential target (i.e., parent–adolescent communication) for treatment programs that aim to improve family relations and youth adjustment in immigrant families.