A model for disaggregating political change

We present a model for identifying the components of aggregate change in an electorate between two points in time. When the electorate is constant in size, change in the mean opinion disaggregates into two components: conversion among those who continue to participate in the electorate (Stayers), and replacement of those who drop out of the electorate at Time₁ (Dropouts) by Newcomers to the electorate at Time₂. We add to this simple formulation the possibility of variation in the size of the electorate. When an electorate expands, the model includes a mobilization term to accommodate the fact that there are more Newcomers at Time₂ than Dropouts at Time₁. When an electorate shrinks in size, the demobilization term reflects the fact that Newcomers as a group are smaller than Dropouts. The model includes appropriate weights for each component so that the change in opinion (or any other aggregate characteristic in the electorate) can be allocated across the three components. We apply the model to Iowa caucus attenders in both parties between 1984 and 1988, and we suggest that the model can be also productively applied to a variety of contexts besides nomination politics, where fluctuations in the size of electorates are significant.Ronald B. Rapoport. College of William and Mary.     

U.S. policy on health inequities: the interplay of politics and research

What is the relationship between scientific research and government action in addressing health inequalities in the United States? What factors increase the impact of scientific research on public policy? To answer these questions, we focus on racial and ethnic disparities in health status and health care in the United States. We first review the history of the disparities issue to elucidate how the continual and persistent interplay between political action and scientific research drives government policy. We then analyze two recent government-sponsored reports about racial and ethnic disparities to understand the strategic consequences of issue framing. We draw lessons about how disparities research can have a greater impact on public policy.     

Reframing the racial disparities issue for state governments

Although racial and ethnic disparities in health have been on the federal government's agenda since 1985, no policy reforms have significantly reduced disparities. The question arises whether states can effectively address this issue without waiting for solutions from the national government. The purpose of this article is to propose ways of reframing the disparities issue that might give state policy makers more leverage and might strengthen political will to address the issue. I suggest a moral frame based on a concept of distributive justice in which medical care must be distributed according to need. I explain the rationales for such a frame and consider its strategic advantages and disadvantages. In the last section, I suggest some policies based on this framing that are within the power of state legislatures.     

When Efficiency Is Unbelievable: Normative Lessons from 30 Years of City–County Consolidations

We use a new model of city-county consolidation to analyze 12 local government consolidation attempts during the last three decades. Using a rigorously designed comparative case study, we identify the critical variables that explain why some consolidations succeed and others fail. Arguments for consolidation typically fail when they focus on the increased equity to be gained from the redistribution of revenues from the suburbs to central cities. Traditional arguments that are based on increased efficiency are also unsuccessful. Instead, the essential element of a successful consolidation is a group of civic elites who define the economic development vision for the community, determine that the existing political structure is incapable of supporting and implementing that vision, and convince the voters that city–county consolidation is the key to economic development that will benefit the whole community, not just the elites.