Useful ignorance: The benefits of uncertainty during power shifts

This paper develops a formal model exploring how declining states allocate scarce military resources across multiple commitments under uncertainty. The model reveals that under certain conditions, states might actually benefit from their own uncertainty. In the model, a declining state’s uncertainty creates incentives for a revisionist rising power to misrepresent its intentions. But importantly, this misrepresentation requires the rising state to act cooperatively, implementing policies that immediately benefit the declining state. The model reveals how declining states can exploit these incentives in order to maximize the short-term benefits of their counterpart’s cooperation. Under some conditions, the benefits of this deceptive cooperation can outweigh the long-term costs of being deceived. These dynamics do not operate when the declining state is certain of the rising state’s type. I illustrate this logic through a case study of Great Britain’s pre-WWI naval withdrawal from East Asia.     

Perceived arrest risk,psychic rewards,and offense specialization: A partial test of rational choice theory†

In prior tests of Beckerian rational choice theory, the notion that individuals are responsive to the (dis)incentives associated with crime has been supported. Much of this research has comprised composite scores of perceived rewards and risks of multiple, often disparate, crime types that are then used to predict “general” offending behavior. Although the results of such prior tests are informative, we believe that this tendency has resulted in two shortcomings. First, a central component of mathematical rational choice theory is overlooked, namely, that responsivity to incentives will be crime specific. That is, offenders should prefer crime types that subjectively offer greater rewards and fewer risks relative to other crimes. Second, individual differences in offending specialization are not addressed, of which Clarke and Cornish (1985) and Shover (1996) argued rational choice theories are well suited to explain. Using a sample of serious offenders, we find that in a given time period, individuals are more likely to engage in crime types they viewed as more intrinsically rewarding and less risky compared with other crimes. Furthermore, individuals displayed greater specialization in violence to the extent they view violence as more rewarding and less risky than property offenses     

The Transitional Justice Gap: Exploring ‘Everyday’ Gendered Harms and Customary Justice in South Kivu,DR Congo

Feminist transitional justice (TJ) has greatly contributed to the study of justice in the ruins of war, notably around prosecuting wartime rape. At the same time, scholars have observed limitations to this research agenda such as externally-driven definitions gendered harms and how to address them. This paper explores two novel areas for feminist TJ research: ‘everyday gendered harms’ and customary justice. Based on a three month field study of baraza, a customary justice mechanism in parts of South Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo, I explore three cases of ‘everyday’ harms against women: domestic violence, polygynous relationships and witchcraft. Through a substantive examination of these baraza cases, I highlight how studying the contextualised functioning of customary justice mechanisms provides new insights into different areas of feminist TJ scholarship, including women’s participation in the transition, justice for harms against women, and advancing gender equality. Additionally, this paper adds to the broader TJ literature by engaging with local TJ needs as they pertain to people’s everyday life in transition.     

Associations Between Trauma Type,Timing, and Accumulation on Current Coping Behaviors in Adolescents: Results from a Large,Population-based Sample

The development of adolescents’ coping in response to stress is critical for adaptive functioning; these coping strategies may be shaped by numerous environmental factors during childhood, including experiences such as exposure to trauma. Childhood trauma has been shown to undermine contemporaneous coping, but how does a history of exposure to trauma and the characteristics of that trauma (type, timing, and accumulation) relate to current coping among adolescents? We addressed this question using a nationally-representative sample of 9427 adolescents (ages 13–18; 48.9% female; 66% White). Adolescents reported on their lifetime exposure to 18 different traumas, including witnessing or experiencing interpersonal violence, accidents, disasters, and violent or accidental loss of loved ones, as well as their current use of coping behaviors when under stress (problem-focused, positive emotion-focused, and negative emotion-focused coping strategies). The study’s results highlight that exposure to nearly all forms of trauma was unrelated to problem-focused and positive emotion-focused coping behaviors, but strongly associated with increased negative emotion-focused coping. Use of each coping style did not vary with age at first exposure to trauma, but increased with the number of lifetime traumatic events experienced. The findings suggest that the extent of prior exposure to trauma, including variations across type and timing, may be related to a particular form of coping that has been linked to increased risk for mental health problems. Study results highlight coping strategies as a potential target for prevention and treatment efforts, and indicate a need to better understand the malleability and trajectory of coping responses to stress for promoting healthy youth development.     

Pop Goes IR? Researching the Popular Culture–World Politics Continuum

In this article we offer a potential research agenda for the study of popular culture in IR and outline how this research agenda could be advanced. If the incorporation of popular culture into IR is going to be fruitful, there must be a willingness to go beyond an engagement with illustrations of world politics. Doing so will get us closer to what is at stake in the mutual implication of popular culture and world politics.     

Interpreting perimortem blast trauma from skeletal remains: Complications and considerations

Blast trauma results from highly variable events that can lead to similar effects in the skeleton. Clinical literature, which largely focuses on soft tissue, provides limited efficacy for interpreting fully skeletonized cases. Interpretation of skeletal blast trauma is hampered by the low number of fully skeletonized case studies and experimental replication studies, which mainly use nonhuman proxies. The purpose of this study is to discuss fracture patterns on two individuals from WWII as a means to better understand and identify fracture patterns associated with blast trauma. Existing clinical and anthropological criteria are reviewed and applied to two World War II cases, both presumed to exhibit blast trauma based on historical contexts. These case studies exhibit combinations of complicated and extensive signs of blunt-force and projectile trauma, reflecting the diversity of skeletal trauma resulting from blast-related events. This analysis emphasizes the arguably impossible task of establishing a diagnosis based on the available literature and lack of prior knowledge about specific losses. Ultimately, analysts must consider the totality of skeletal trauma, combining biomechanical theory and relevant clinical and anthropological literature to arrive at useful yet defensible assessments of trauma. However, refined criteria and additional studies are needed to assess complicated trauma from blast-related events in anthropological contexts.     

全球性剥削型人口贩运发案率的评估策略研究

评估性剥削人口贩运在全球的发案数是一项艰巨的任务,由于缺乏统一的措施以及可行的研究方法,关于人口贩运的实证研究非常缺乏,而了解性剥削的人口贩运活动对制定有效的反制措施具有至关重要的作用。根据针对目前已查明的人口贩运案件的深入挖掘和利用受害者收集的一手数据,本文试图提出基于外推法的评估全球性剥削人口贩运的发案数的可行策略。