Testing a rational choice model of “desistance:” Decomposing changing expectations and changing utilities

We argue that a rational choice framework can be used to explain declines in offending from adolescence to young adulthood in two ways. First, subjective expectations of offending can be age graded such that perceptions of rewards decrease and perceptions of risks and costs increase. Second, the marginal (dis)utility of crime may be age graded (e.g., preferences for risks, costs, and rewards). We examine changes in offending from adolescence to young adulthood among a subset of individuals from the Pathways to Desistance Study (N = 585) and employ a nonlinear decomposition model to partition differences in offending attributable to changing subjective expectations (X) and changing marginal utilities (β). The results indicate that both have direct and independent effects on changes in offending over time. The results of a detailed decomposition on the subjective expectations also indicate that differences exist across the type of incentives. That is, the effect of changing expectations is attributed mainly to changes in perceived rewards (both social and intrinsic). Changing expectations of social costs and risk of arrest from offending have weak effects on changes in criminal behavior, which suggests that they must be accompanied by increases in the weight placed on these expectations to promote appreciable declines in offending.     

Revisiting Delinquent Attitudes: Measurement,Dimensionality and Behavioral Effects

Objective

This study examines whether single-item attitude measures commonly used in research adequately capture adolescent attitudes towards specific delinquent behaviors. It also explores whether delinquent attitudes form a unidimensional or multidimensional construct. Finally, this study tests Ajzen and Fishbein’s principle of compatibility to determine if delinquent attitudes have a behavior-specific and a situation-specific effect on behavior.

Methods

Data from a sample of 223 high school students in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and from the Gang Resistance Education and Training (GREAT) evaluation are used. The means and correlations between single-item global attitude items are compared to situation-specific measures. Exploratory factor analysis is conducted to examine dimensionality, and logit regressions are used to predict the willingness to offend in the PNW and self-reported offending in the GREAT.

Results

The findings indicate that: (1) global attitude measures underestimate the degree of approval of delinquency and are not strongly correlated with situation-specific attitudes; (2) delinquent attitudes form a multidimensional construct that coalesce around crime-types; (3) there is some evidence that attitudes towards specific crimes have crime-specific effects on behavior, and; (4) situation-specific attitudes predict the willingness to offend in a specific situation above and beyond one’s overall approval of that behavior.

Conclusions

Attitudes towards fighting and theft are too complex to be captured by single-item measures. The findings also support the principle of compatibility which suggests that attitudes may be well-suited to explain why individual engage in specific types of crimes in specific situations. Other implications and limitations are discussed.

     

Accuracy and Reliability of Total Body Mass Estimation Techniques from Stature and Bi‐iliac Breadth in Non‐Hispanic U.S. Whites from the Bass Donated Skeletal Collection

This paper tests the fidelity of a recent method that used the NHANES III dataset as a proxy to estimate total body mass from stature and bi‐iliac breadth in U.S. White males and females. The bi‐iliac breadths of 230 males and 152 females identified as non‐Hispanic U.S. White from the Bass Donated Skeletal Collection were measured, and along with stature from predonor paperwork, total body mass estimates were calculated and then compared to body masses recorded on predonor paperwork. Male and female samples were subdivided by body mass index (BMI [kg/m²]) categories established by the World Health Organization. Our results suggest that total body mass estimates can be accurately assessed provided that the individual is within 18.50 ≤ BMI ≤ 29.99 for White males and 18.50 ≤ BMI ≤ 24.99 for White females. Recommendations on how to report total body mass estimates are also presented.     

Framing a Needed Discourse on Health Disparities and Social Inequities: Drawing Lessons from a Pandemic

COVID-19 provides numerous opportunities for policy makers to consider matters of social equity in relation to the field of public health. Specifically, by reflecting on health disparities in relation to the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on minority and historically underserved populations, we can leverage a needed discourse on health outcomes for many communities. Grounded in the social determinants of health conceptual framework, this essay explores the application of the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 to vulnerable populations and communities of color for a discussion of strategies for minimizing health disparities.     

Postfeeding Larval Dispersal Behavior of Late Season Blow Flies (Calliphoridae) in Southern Ontario,Canada

Postfeeding dispersal involves migration of larvae away from their food source in order to pupate. Puparia are difficult to find, yet are important for estimating PMI, and missing puparia during collection can result in inaccurate estimations. This study investigates the late season maggot dispersal patterns for blow flies at coyote carcasses in two habitats with an aim to improving puparia collection procedures. Puparia samples collected from various dispersal distances and directions tested the spatial distribution patterns of the various species using the variance/mean ratio (VMR). Lucilia illustris was the most common species to emerge, with a preferred minimum dispersal distance of more than 50.8 cm and an overall VMR value of 14.91, indicating this species had a clumped distribution pattern. These findings highlight that current collection procedures that use random sampling from under carcasses do not adequately account for the spatial distribution of larvae.     

Changing the design: cabinet decision-making in three provincial governments

Abstract: The subject of this investigation is cabinet decision-making in the provincial governments of Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and British Columbia. Specifically, it attempts to examine the forces that underlie the initiation and persistence of cabinet institutionalization in the postwar period. The postwar period has witnessed the replacement of the unaided (or traditional) cabinet by the institutionalized (or structured) cabinet. In other words, unstructured and relatively uncoordinated central executives have given way to those which are more structured, more collegial, and more prone to emphasize planning and coordination. The factors promoting initial cabinet institutionalization in the three provinces were a mixture of ideology, pragmatism, and historical precedent unique to each province. There were both endogenous factors (those growing from within government) and exogenous factors (those acting from without) which affected the persistence of institutionalized cabinets. They were common to more than one province but their relative weight differed between premiers. Not surprisingly, the institutionalization of provincial cabinets has had major effects on political actors and functions in the three provinces studied. Cabinet structure has both changed and been changed by power relations within cabinet. Full cabinet appears to have been overshadowed as a decision-making center. It is apparent that central agencies and central departments do not always yield similar political effects. Lastly, planning and budgeting have grown in both complexity and complementarily. Sommaire: Cette enquête traite du le processus décisionnel au sein du Conceal des ministers dans les governments provinciaux de la Saskatchewan, du Manitoba et de la Colombie-Britannique. Plus précisément, elle cherche B examiner les forces qui ont favorisé l'apparition puis le maintien de l'institutionnalisation des Conseils des ministres au cours de l'après-guerre.     

Beyond Horror: Terrorist Atrocity and the Search for Understanding-- The Case of the Shankill Bombing

The old order has broken up. We have reached the end of a postwar world whose premises were based on terror, but whose conditions had become familiar, and even comforting, over the years. The waters we are now entering are unchartered and perhaps treacherous, and we are not likely to steer safely through them unless we have the courage to question the old assumptions which once seemed eternal and have now become so threadbare.