Event Dependence and Heterogeneity in Duration Models: The Conditional Frailty Model

Suzanna De Boef and Kyle A. Joyce Department of Political Science, 219 Pond Laboratory, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 e-mail: sdeboef{at}psu.edu e-mail: kjoyce{at}psu.edu e-mail: jboxstef+{at}osu.edu (corresponding author) We introduce the conditional frailty model, an event historymodel that separates and accounts for both event dependenceand heterogeneity in repeated events processes. Event dependenceand heterogeneity create within-subject correlation in eventtimes thereby violating the assumptions of standard event historymodels. Simulations show the advantage of the conditional frailtymodel. Specifically they demonstrate the model's ability todisentangle the sources of within-subject correlation as wellas the gains in both efficiency and bias of the model when comparedto the widely used alternatives, which often produce conflictingconclusions. Two substantive political science problems illustratethe usefulness and interpretation of the model: state policyadoption and terrorist attacks. Authors' note: Three anonymous reviewers gave valuable advice.Replication materials and an online appendix are available onthe Political Analysis Web site. Any errors are our own responsibility.     

Revisiting the relationship between age,employment, and recidivism

Employment theoretically serves as a source of informal social control that can promote desistance from crime (Sampson & Laub, 1993). Findings from studies assessing the effects of employment, however, have been mixed. In a seminal study, Uggen (2000) reanalyzed data from the National Supported Work (NSW) Demonstration Project and found that employment significantly reduced the rate of recidivism among individuals aged 27 and older but had no impact on younger individuals. We reproduce and replicate Uggen's (2000) findings with data from four distinct employment programs: The National Supported Work Program (1975–1979), the Transitional Aid Research Project (1976–1977), the Employment Services for Ex-Offenders (1981–1984), and the Enhanced Services for the Hard-to-Employ Center for Employment Opportunities (2004–2008). We closely reproduced Uggen's original findings in the NSW but found evidence that the statistically significant interaction between age and employment in the NSW was only present at the year 3 follow-up and the observed effect is highly sensitive to minor threats to internal validity. Furthermore, a significant age–employment interaction was not observed in the three other data sources. These findings should encourage scholars to continue to investigate the age-graded nature of employment and crime, especially through a sociohistorical lens.     

From British Colony to American Satellite? Australia and the USA during the Cold War

This article challenges the widely‐accepted view that Australia's strategic relationship with the USA during the period 1945–69 thwarted the full development of Australian nationhood and, in so doing, formed an obstacle to Australia's accommodation with its region. It argues that the most influential perspectives on the subject place too much emphasis on the 1940s as a watershed in Australian foreign policy history, exaggerate differences between Labor and conservative policies, fail to appreciate that the pursuit of Australian interests was central to Australian policy during this period, and exaggerate the limitations that ANZUS imposed upon Australian freedom of action. Not a thwarted nationalism but flawed understanding of the limitations and possibilities of the US alliance as a vehicle for Australian interests shaped Australian government policies during this period.     

Can Callous-Unemotional Traits and Aggression Identify Children at High-Risk of Anti-Social Behavior in a Low Socioeconomic Group?

Frick et al. (2005) proposed that Callous-Unemotional (CU) traits may be an important personality dimension associated with youth offending. The goal of the present study was to examine whether CU traits were associated with risk factors for offending in a low SES sample of children aged 10 years to 11 years in New Zealand. Two subgroups were identified: one high (High-CU/Agg group) and one low (Low-CU/Agg group) on CU traits and aggression. Results showed that scores for the High-CU/Agg group were significantly worse compared to the Low-CU/Agg group on a range of measures including stress management, caregiver criminal convictions, and dysfunctional parenting. However, analyses revealed that the measure of aggression accounted for more unique variance compared to CU traits. Further research is needed with youths from low SES communities to develop a more robust profile of potential youth offenders.     

SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH AND SOCIAL POLICY: BRIDGING THE GAP1

Clinical examples of misapplications of social science research are reviewed with an emphasis on what can be learned with regard to dealing with and preventing such misuse of this type of knowledge. The differences in language and culture that characterize scientific research as separate from advocacy and social policy are also examined, with recommendations for improved cross‐cultural communication.     

The Grassroots Are Greener: Democratic Participation and Environmental Policies in State Politics

American environmental legislation cannot be fully explained under traditional interest‐group theory, which emphasizes the success of well‐financed, organized interests. One alternative explanation holds that the American public accepts a new environmental ethos that is protective of the natural world and human health. This study examines 100 years of state‐level ballot questions on environmental policy and empirically establishes the emergence and persistence of this new environmental ethos as well as the changing nature of American support for environmental policy. This ethos emerges in 40 years, environmental policy making of this type has been increasingly citizen‐led, inclusive of a wider variety of environmental problems, while embracing a greater range of policy solutions including those premised on more radical notions of humanity?s relationship with the natural world.     

CLINICAL ETHICS COMMITTEES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM: TOWARDS EVALUATION

In the United Kingdom there is a growing conviction that CECs have an important role to play in helping health care professionals address ethical dilemmas. For example, the Royal College of Physicians, the Nuffield Trust and the unofficial Clinical Ethics Network, which has received financial support from the Department of Health, commend the use of CECs in the UK. The growth of such committees has been influenced by the legal and policy support they have received in the United States. However, there is increasing concern about both the benefits and the quality of work produced by CECs. In addition, despite the rapid increase in the number of CECs in the UK, outside of the United States they remain under-researched and no formal mechanism exists to assess their performance. As a result we know little about the structure, function, impact and effectiveness of CECs. We are currently conducting a research project funded by the Wellcome Trust that seeks to interrogate the competing claims regarding the benefits and disbenefits of CECs. This initial account of our research provides a detailed analysis of theoretical issues that surround the development and use of CECs and points towards the questions that lie at the heart of the social science strand of our project.     

Temporal discounting: the differential effect of proximal and distal consequences on confession decisions

Drawing on the psychological principle that proximal consequences influence behavior more strongly than distal consequences, the authors tested the hypothesis that criminal suspects exhibit a short-sightedness during police interrogation that increases their risk for confession. Consistent with this hypothesis, Experiment 1 showed that participants (N = 81) altered how frequently they admitted to criminal and unethical behaviors during an interview to avoid a proximal consequence even though doing so increased their risk of incurring a distal consequence. Experiment 2 (N = 143) yielded the same pattern, but with a procedure that reversed the order of the proximal and distal consequences, thereby ruling out the possibility that it was the unique characteristics of the consequences rather than their proximity that influenced the admission rate. The authors discuss the supported psychological process as a potential explanation for several well-established findings reported in the literature on confessions.     

Social and economic impact of the commercialization of the Argus II artificial retina in the United States

Each year, the United States invests about $45 billion in research conducted by federal researchers within federal laboratories. These efforts generate extensive social benefits when results are transferred to the private sector. It is important that we effectively quantify the economic and societal impact of federal technology transfer activities to inform taxpayers and policymakers about the value of public investments in this form of research. The Argus II device, an artificial retina commercialized in the United States by Second Sight in 2013, provides a rich example of how private sector innovation can be enhanced by research collaborations with federal labs and academia. Over the 25-year journey from idea to product, Second Sight carried out research and development collaborations with six Department of Energy national laboratories and seven universities. The case of Argus II also offers valuable insight into (1) how private industry, academia, and government can work together to bring socially beneficial innovations to fruition and (2) the tradeoffs inherent in these public–private collaborations. In this paper, we use a Markov model to estimate the realized and potential future social benefits associated with Argus II. We provide an interactive tool that can be used to replicate our findings and modify assumptions using updated patient information as it becomes available. We also provide insight into the aspects of federal involvement surrounding the development of Argus II that contributed to its successful commercialization and discuss other spillover benefits from these public–private collaborations.