PBB in American Local Governments: It's More than a Management Tool

Despite academic findings that performance information seldom is used in appropriations decisions, many professional organizations and governments continue to press for integrating performance information into local public management, planning, and budgeting processes. Is it possible to reconcile such inconsistencies? Looking beyond the executive–legislative relationship and departmental appropriations, the author examines the budget implications of applying performance information at the subdepartmental program level. Case analysis of Indianapolis’s IndyStat initiative underscores that performance measurement application is positively related to intradepartmental program budget changes. Hence, performance‐based budgeting (PBB) can improve local budgeting despite severe political constraints. Still, successful use of PBB requires strong executive leadership, and its effects remain less visible at the departmental level or within the wider political arena of legislative bargaining. The author concludes by recommending some rethinking of the current analytical focus of PBB both in future research as well as recommended practice.     

Staying Cool Across the First Year of Middle School

As students transition into middle school they must successfully negotiate a new, larger peer context to attain or maintain high social standing. The goal of this study was to examine the extent to which the maintenance, attainment, and loss of a cool status over the course of the sixth grade is associated with student and classroom levels of physical, verbal, and relational aggression. To address this goal, we studied a sample of 1985 (55% girls) ethnically diverse adolescents from 99 sixth grade classrooms in the United States. Attaining a cool status at any point across the school year was associated with stronger aggressive reputations. Additionally, classroom norms for aggressive behavior moderated the association between changes in aggression over the school year and the stability of coolness such that students who maintained their coolness across the school year showed greater increases in their verbally aggressive reputations from fall to spring when they were in classrooms with higher levels of aggression. The findings illustrate the importance of fitting in with social norms for maintaining a high social status among a new set of peers in middle school.     

Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference

Kosuke Imai Department of Politics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 e-mail: kimai{at}princeton.edu Gary King Department of Government, Harvard University, 1737 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 Elizabeth A. Stuart Departments of Mental Health and Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 624 North Broadway, Room 804, Baltimore, MD 21205 e-mail: estuart{at}jhsph.edu e-mail: king{at}harvard.edu (corresponding author) Although published works rarely include causal estimates frommore than a few model specifications, authors usually choosethe presented estimates from numerous trial runs readers neversee. Given the often large variation in estimates across choicesof control variables, functional forms, and other modeling assumptions,how can researchers ensure that the few estimates presentedare accurate or representative? How do readers know that publicationsare not merely demonstrations that it is possible to find aspecification that fits the author's favorite hypothesis? Andhow do we evaluate or even define statistical properties likeunbiasedness or mean squared error when no unique model or estimatoreven exists? Matching methods, which offer the promise of causalinference with fewer assumptions, constitute one possible wayforward, but crucial results in this fast-growing methodologicalliterature are often grossly misinterpreted. We explain howto avoid these misinterpretations and propose a unified approachthat makes it possible for researchers to preprocess data withmatching (such as with the easy-to-use software we offer) andthen to apply the best parametric techniques they would haveused anyway. This procedure makes parametric models producemore accurate and considerably less model-dependent causal inferences. Authors' note: Our thanks to Dan Carpenter and Jeff Koch fordata; Alberto Abadie, Neal Beck, Sam Cook, Alexis Diamond, BenHansen, Guido Imbens, Olivia Lau, Gabe Lenz, Paul Rosenbaum,Don Rubin, and Jas Sekhon for many helpful comments; and theNational Institutes of Aging (P01 AG17625-01), the NationalInstitute of Mental Health (MH066247), the National ScienceFoundation (SES-0318275, IIS-9874747, SES-0550873), and thePrinceton University Committee on Research in the Humanitiesand Social Sciences for research support. Software to implementthe methods in this paper is available at http://GKing.Harvard.edu/matchitand a replication data file is available as Ho et al. (2006).     

Have Cities Shifted to Outcome‐Oriented Performance Reporting?—A Content Analysis of City Budgets

“Outcome” orientation has been emphasized in performance measurement and reporting in recent years. Using budgetary documents of the largest cities in the United States, this paper analyzes more than 4,800 performance measures reported by 21 cities to show that clear progress toward outcome‐oriented performance measurement has been made. It also shows that the selection of performance measures differs among types of municipal services and is driven partly by professionalism in city management and the influence of professional organizations. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of the findings and potential future improvements of performance reporting.     

Wage subsidies as a labour market policy tool

In this paper, the author argues that wage subsidy is a valuable policy tool in the face of structural changes such as would result from the removal of tariffs, or in the face of a need to assist the disadvantaged or redress distributional inequity. After discussing wage subsidies that target specific segments of the population, which has the potential to improve both static and dynamic efficiency, the author goes on to discuss and contrast his universal wage subsidy proposal with the negative income tax and the minimum wage legislation, all of which are designed mainly for distributional purposes.     

The Use of Liquid Latex to Recover Latent Fingerprints that are Covered in Debris from Exterior Glass Surfaces of Vehicles

The purpose of this research is to determine if latent fingerprints deposited on the exterior glass surfaces of vehicles, then covered in debris, can be recovered. Past research used liquid latex to lift soot to recover trace evidence. Recently, liquid latex has been used to recover latent fingerprints along the bottom of vehicles. In this study, a total of 216 latent fingerprints were deposited on the exterior windows of three vehicles. Three control and three experimental latent fingerprints were placed on each side window. The vehicles collected debris for either 2, 3, or 4 weeks. After debris collection, liquid latex was applied to the experimental sections. The underlying fingerprints were developed with white granular powder. Control fingerprints were developed directly with white granular powder. A chi-square test revealed a significant difference in fingerprint recovery between the control and liquid latex method (X² = 9.026, d.f. = 1, p = 0.003). An odds ratio determined that the control method increases the probability of latent fingerprint recovery by 2.68. Fisher's exact test indicated that there is no statistically significant difference between the detail of the recovered control and experimental fingerprints (p = 0.065). This study demonstrates that recovery of fingerprints is possible using the liquid latex method; however, the control method recovers more fingerprints on the glass exterior of vehicles. If latent fingerprints are thought to be present on the exterior glass surfaces of vehicles, the control method should be used to improve vehicle processing by investigators.     

Social Motives Underlying Antisocial Behavior Across Middle School Grades

The goal of the study was to examine whether social motives (social mimicry, mutual attraction, and unreciprocated attraction) predict changes in antisocial behavior across middle school grades. The 2,003 initial participants (55% girls) were drawn from a larger longitudinal study of urban public school students: 44% Latino, 26% African-American, 10% Asian, 9% Caucasian, and 11% multiracial. Analyses of peer nominations and teacher-rated behavior included five waves of data between the fall of sixth grade and the spring of eighth grade (n = 1,260–1,347 for longitudinal analyses). Supporting the social mimicry hypothesis, students who associated peer-directed aggression with high social status in the beginning of middle school engaged in elevated levels of antisocial conduct during the second year in the new school. Additionally, unreciprocated attraction toward peers who bully others in the beginning of middle school was related to increased antisocial behavior in the last year of middle school. No support was obtained for the mutual attraction hypothesis. The findings provide insights about possible social motives underlying susceptibility to negative peer influence.

A Quiet Revolution or a Flashy Blip? The Real ID Act and U.S. National Identification System Reform

In 2005, Congress passed the Real ID Act despite decades of stalemate in reforming the U.S. national ID system. Using John Kingdon’s policy streams framework, the authors examine the development of reform ideas, the opening of a policy window and the shift in the national mood after the 9/11 attacks, and the legislative tactics by the George W. Bush administration that led to the passage of the act. The analysis illustrates the significance of policy entrepreneurship in national crises but also raises questions about the permanency of policy reforms and the ethical responsibilities of public administrators in such times.     

Regulatory capture in agency performance evaluation: industry expertise versus revolving-door lobbying

This study investigates the concept of bureaucratic competence. Specifically, we challenge the argument that a “careerists’ premium”—the tendency for public services run by careerists to receive better performance evaluations than services administered by other types of public managers—necessarily is explained by the superior expertise of career bureaucrats. Evidence that forms the basis of this possibility comes from performance evaluations of Korean state-owned enterprises (SOEs) managed by different types of executives between 2000 and 2015. The results of our analyses provide support for the existence of a careerists’ premium. However, we find that the premium is most salient and significant when executives had retired from the governmental agency that oversees the performance-evaluation process. Moreover, the gap between qualitative and quantitative assessment scores increase significantly when the evaluated SOEs are managed by career executives who have retired from the regulating agency. This result suggests that the oft-cited careerists’ premium may not necessarily signify careerists’ greater expertise; it may also be the product of lobbying and regulatory capture.