EXAMINING THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE ILLICIT DRUG MARKET-HOMICIDE RELATIONSHIP: A PARTIAL TEST OF THE THEORY OF CONTINGENT CAUSATION

Recently, Zimring and Hawkins (1997) have suggested that drug markets are a “contingent cause” of the increase in homicide rates. That is, where structural conditions known to produce violence are already in place, the drug distribution‐homicide link may be exacerbated. This analysis uses hierarchical linear modeling to investigate two key research questions: (1) Is within‐city variation in illicit drug market activity positively associated with within‐city variation in homicide rates during the 1984–1997 period? (2) Is the illicit drug market‐homicide association contingent on preexisting violence conducive socioeconomic conditions? Using three measures of drug market activity, analyses provide affirmative evidence on both questions. Theoretical and research implications of these findings are discussed.     

Bicameralism and Geographic Politics: Allocating Funds in the House and Senate

Because they represent different kinds of constituencies—states versus parts of states—senators and House members have different incentives in constructing federal distributive programs. In order to claim credit for providing particularized benefits, House members need to use policy tools—earmarks and narrow categorical programs—that target funds to their constituencies. Senators, by contrast, are able to claim credit for the large formula grants that distribute the bulk of intergovernmental grant money. Examining House‐Senate interactions in one of the largest distributive programs, federal aid to states for surface transportation, I show that the different bases of representation in the House and Senate structure the chambers' preferences on distributive programs and affect the outcomes of interchamber conflicts.     

China Must Convince the World Its Rise Is Peaceful

Globalization has indeed flattened the earth, paving the way for new beginnings and the resurgence of old cultures alike by levelling the playing field for all comers. While this new era of post‐globalization certainly heralds de‐Westernization by century's end, is it more likely to mean a revival of the old ways of the East or the new hybrid ways of the first global civilization? Some of Asia's most provocative voices, as well as the world's most renowned cellist and cross‐pollinating musician, offer their views.     

Locke on Toleration and Inclusion

As the product of liberalism's first encounter with the theoretical problems posed by legal discrimination and unequal treatment of minority groups, Locke's argument for religious toleration foreshadowed contemporary democratic theory's emphasis on non‐coercive discussion of diverse rights claims and broadly inclusive public deliberations. This study tries to illuminate the democratic dimension of Locke's toleration theory by focusing on his crucial account of the church as a voluntary association. Here Locke presented discursive possibilities for the articulation of diverse beliefs and interests that he believed would not only benefit both society as a whole and the minority religious groups contained in it, but also weave principles of contestation and deliberation into the very fabric of the liberal polity.     

DEVELOPMENTAL PATTERNS OF ALCOHOL USE IN RELATION TO THE PERSISTENCE AND DESISTANCE OF SERIOUS VIOLENT OFFENDING AMONG AFRICAN AMERICAN AND CAUCASIAN YOUNG MEN*

This study examined the association of alcohol use with the persistence and desistance of serious violent offending among African American and Caucasian young men from adolescence into emerging adulthood. Five violence groups were defined: nonviolent, late‐onsetters, desisters, persisters, and one‐time offenders. We examined alcohol use trajectories for these groups spanning 12 through 24/25 years of age using a four‐piecewise linear growth model s 12–14, 14–18, 18–21, and 21–24/25 years of age. The persisters and desisters reported the highest levels of drinking at 13 years of age. From 14 to 18 years old, however, the late‐onsetters showed a higher rate of increase in drinking, compared with the persisters and desisters. Starting at 18 years of age, the desisters’ drinking trajectory started to resemble that of the nonviolent group, who showed the highest rate of increase in drinking during emerging adulthood. By 24/25 years of age, the persisters could not be distinguished from the late‐onsetters, but they were lower than the nonviolent and one‐timer groups in terms of their drinking. At 24/25 years old, the desisters were not significantly different from the other violence groups, although they seemed most similar to the nonviolent and one‐timer groups. We found no evidence that the association between drinking and violence differed for African Americans and Caucasians. The findings suggest that yearly changes in alcohol use could provide important clues for preventing violent offending.     

公法契约之控制─从公私合伙架构谈起

针对公私合伙制度(PPPs)下之契约,探究其系公法契约或是私法契约,具有实际意义。英国、德国及美国在公私合伙制度下之发展进程,值得关注;特别是英国成功发展的PPPs,建构"公法下之政府契约"及"私法下之政府契约"之模式足资赞许;德国针对PPPs下之投资契约,是否适合置入于行政程序法下之行政性契约,相关立法沿革,值得注意与效法;而美国行政任务私有化后,行政机关对外购买服务,公权力充分与私部门分享,而未建构监督与契约治理机制,堪致忧虑,特别是契约外包之下,相关法律不禁止境外转包,则服务之质量与法律正当性受到质疑。     

ROMANTIC PARTNERS' INFLUENCE ON MEN'S LIKELIHOOD OF ARREST IN EARLY ADULTHOOD*

Female romantic partners' influence on official crime occurrence for men across a 12‐year period in early adulthood was examined within a comprehensive dynamic prediction model, including both social learning and social control predictors. We hypothesized that relationship stability, rather than attachment to partner, would be associated with reduced likelihood of crime, whereas women's antisocial behavior would be a risk factor, along with deviant peer association. Models were tested on a sample of at‐risk men [the Oregon Youth Study (OYS)] using zero‐inflated Poisson (ZIP) modeling predicting 1) arrest persistence (class and count) and 2) arrest onset class. The findings indicated that women's antisocial behavior was predictive of both onset and persistence of arrests for men and that deviant peer association was predictive of persistence. Relationship stability was protective against persistence.