Validities and abilities in criminal profiling: a critique of the studies conducted by Richard Kocsis and his colleagues

In a recent issue of this journal, Kocsis reviewed the criminal profiling research that he and his colleagues have conducted during the past 4 years. Their research examines the correlates of profile accuracy with respect to the skills of the individual constructing the profile, and it has led Kocsis to draw conclusions that are important to the profiling field. In this article, the authors review the contributions of the Kocsis studies and critique their methodological and conceptual foundations. The authors raise a number of concerns and argue that data from the Kocsis studies fail to support many of the conclusions presented in his recent review. The authors present evidence in support of their assertions and provide recommendations that will allow future research in the area to generate data that are more meaningful and generalizable.     

On the Complexity and Accuracy of Geographic Profiling Strategies

Geographic profilers have access to a repertoire of strategies for predicting a serial offenders home location. These strategies range in complexity—some involve more calculations to implement than others—and the assumption often made is that more complex strategies will outperform simpler strategies. In the present study, we tested the relationship between the complexity and accuracy of 11 strategies. Data were crime site and home locations of 16 UK residential burglars who had committed 10 or more crimes each. The results indicated that strategy complexity was not positively related to accuracy. This was also found to be the case across tasks that ranged in complexity (where complexity was determined by the number of crimes used to make a prediction). Implications for police policies and procedures, as well as our understanding of human decision-making, are discussed.To whom correspondence should be addressed. Phone: +1-709-737-3101; E-mail: bsnook@play.psych.mun.ca     

An Examination of Jury Verdicts for Evidence of a Similarity-Leniency Effect,an Out-Group Punitiveness Effect or a Black Sheep Effect

Archival data from cases adjudicated by jury in El Paso and Bexar County, Texas, were used to test whether a similarity-leniency effect, an out-group punitiveness effect, or a black sheep effect (BSE; J. M. Marques, V Y. Yzerbyt, & J. P. Leyens, 1988) influenced jury decisions. Defendant ethnicity, jury ethnic composition, and strength of evidence against the defendant were coded for 418 closed noncapital, felony cases to test their impact on trial verdicts and sentence lengths. Results indicated complex relations exist among juror and defendant characteristics and their influence on trial outcomes. No support was found for any of the theoretical models as predictors of jury decision-making. Strength of evidence was the most influential variable for both verdicts and length of sentences. Case strength, defendant ethnicity, and jury composition were related to sentence lengths.     

Death during theft from electric utilities

Utilities that supply power are subject to theft of service and theft of hardware used to provide service. Individuals who try to steal from a power utility risk electrocution. We conducted a retrospective study of all individuals examined by the Jefferson County Coroner Medical Examiner Office from January 1981 through December 2001 and found that 8 individuals died trying to steal from a power utility. All decedents were men, with an average age of 33 years. Seven decedents were stealing copper, and 1 was stealing electricity. Only 1 decedent survived long enough to be admitted to a hospital. Five decedents were intoxicated, 3 with ethanol, 1 with cocaine, and 1 with both cocaine and ethanol. Seven decedents sustained electrical burns in keeping with the high voltage to which they were subjected. The unburned decedent died of laceration of the aorta at its origin from the heart, an injury sustained when the decedent fell from the power pole. All 8 decedents attempted their theft during daylight. Items found in the decedent's pockets, the presence of a ladder nearby, or the presence of electrical tools around the body may help to establish the attempted act of theft.     

High prevalence of 6-acetylmorphine in morphine-positive oral fluid specimens

Identification of 6-acetylmorphine, a specific metabolite of heroin, is considered to be definitive evidence of heroin use. Although 6-acetylmorphine has been identified in oral fluid following controlled heroin administration, no prevalence data is available for oral fluid specimens collected in the workplace. We evaluated the prevalence of positive test results for 6-acetylmorphine in 77,218 oral fluid specimens collected over a 10-month period (January-October 2001) from private workplace testing programs. Specimens were analyzed by Intercept immunoassay (cutoff concentration=30 ng/ml) and confirmed by GC-MS-MS (cutoff concentrations=30 ng/ml for morphine and codeine, and 3 ng/ml for 6-acetylmorphine). Only morphine-positive oral fluid specimens were tested by GC-MS-MS for 6-acetylmorphine. A total of 48 confirmed positive morphine results were identified. An additional 107 specimens were confirmed for codeine only. Of the 48 morphine-positive specimens, 32 (66.7%) specimens were positive for 6-acetylmorphine. Mean concentrations (+/-S.E.M.) of morphine, 6-acetylmorphine and codeine in the 32 specimens were 755+/-201, 416+/-168 and 196+/-36 ng/ml, respectively. Concentrations of 6-acetylmorphine in oral fluid ranged from 3 to 4095 ng/ml. The mean ratio (+/-S.E.M.) of 6-acetylmorphine/morphine was 0.33+/-0.06. It is suggested that, based on controlled dose studies of heroin administration, ratios >1 of 6-acetylmorphine/morphine in oral fluid are consistent with heroin use within the last hour before specimen collection. The confirmation of 6-acetylmorphine in 66.7% of morphine-positive oral fluid specimens indicates that oral fluid testing for opioids may offer advantages over urine in workplace drug testing programs and in testing drugged drivers for recent heroin use.     

Institutional Actors in the Brazilian Amazon: Possibilities for NGO and Public Sector Collaboration in Rural Agriculture

Public sector institutions in Amazonian Brazil are experiencing structural reforms, budget cuts, and overburdened missions. Services needed to support appropriate resource use practices by rural farmers are gradually being provided by NGOs where the public sector has failed to provide them. But local NGOs are institutionally weak, and their activities are poorly coordinated with other regional service providers. This article analyzes three models for NGO organization and partnership that were designed outside of the Amazon region, and tests their applicability to the small-farming sector in Pará State in the eastern Brazilian Amazon. With some adaptation, these models can effectively help coordinate three overarching needs in the region: institutional strengthening, regional planning, and improving program effectiveness and efficiency.