Dental shape match rates in selected and orthodontically treated populations in New York State: a two-dimensional study

Forensically identifying a suspect's dentition from a bitemark in an open population requires the supposition that every person's dental alignment is different. There have been few studies that have tested this claim. Four hundred and ten lower anterior dentitions from a selected population and 110 lower anterior dentitions from one that was orthodontically treated were measured using geometric morphometric analysis, allowing comparison of arch shape. Dental match rates of 1.46% and 42.7% of individuals were found in the respective populations, given an established measurement error. Orthodontic treatment had a strong effect on match rate suggesting that treated or naturally well-aligned dentitions may be indistinguishable. Sexual dimorphism was found to be only slightly significant. Principal shape variation in both populations was degree of arch curvature. Results of studying these populations show that dental matches can occur, and that statements of certainty concerning individualization in such populations should be approached with caution.     

PBB in American Local Governments: It's More than a Management Tool

Despite academic findings that performance information seldom is used in appropriations decisions, many professional organizations and governments continue to press for integrating performance information into local public management, planning, and budgeting processes. Is it possible to reconcile such inconsistencies? Looking beyond the executive–legislative relationship and departmental appropriations, the author examines the budget implications of applying performance information at the subdepartmental program level. Case analysis of Indianapolis’s IndyStat initiative underscores that performance measurement application is positively related to intradepartmental program budget changes. Hence, performance‐based budgeting (PBB) can improve local budgeting despite severe political constraints. Still, successful use of PBB requires strong executive leadership, and its effects remain less visible at the departmental level or within the wider political arena of legislative bargaining. The author concludes by recommending some rethinking of the current analytical focus of PBB both in future research as well as recommended practice.     

Staying Cool Across the First Year of Middle School

As students transition into middle school they must successfully negotiate a new, larger peer context to attain or maintain high social standing. The goal of this study was to examine the extent to which the maintenance, attainment, and loss of a cool status over the course of the sixth grade is associated with student and classroom levels of physical, verbal, and relational aggression. To address this goal, we studied a sample of 1985 (55% girls) ethnically diverse adolescents from 99 sixth grade classrooms in the United States. Attaining a cool status at any point across the school year was associated with stronger aggressive reputations. Additionally, classroom norms for aggressive behavior moderated the association between changes in aggression over the school year and the stability of coolness such that students who maintained their coolness across the school year showed greater increases in their verbally aggressive reputations from fall to spring when they were in classrooms with higher levels of aggression. The findings illustrate the importance of fitting in with social norms for maintaining a high social status among a new set of peers in middle school.     

Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference

Kosuke Imai Department of Politics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 e-mail: kimai{at}princeton.edu Gary King Department of Government, Harvard University, 1737 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 Elizabeth A. Stuart Departments of Mental Health and Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 624 North Broadway, Room 804, Baltimore, MD 21205 e-mail: estuart{at}jhsph.edu e-mail: king{at}harvard.edu (corresponding author) Although published works rarely include causal estimates frommore than a few model specifications, authors usually choosethe presented estimates from numerous trial runs readers neversee. Given the often large variation in estimates across choicesof control variables, functional forms, and other modeling assumptions,how can researchers ensure that the few estimates presentedare accurate or representative? How do readers know that publicationsare not merely demonstrations that it is possible to find aspecification that fits the author's favorite hypothesis? Andhow do we evaluate or even define statistical properties likeunbiasedness or mean squared error when no unique model or estimatoreven exists? Matching methods, which offer the promise of causalinference with fewer assumptions, constitute one possible wayforward, but crucial results in this fast-growing methodologicalliterature are often grossly misinterpreted. We explain howto avoid these misinterpretations and propose a unified approachthat makes it possible for researchers to preprocess data withmatching (such as with the easy-to-use software we offer) andthen to apply the best parametric techniques they would haveused anyway. This procedure makes parametric models producemore accurate and considerably less model-dependent causal inferences. Authors' note: Our thanks to Dan Carpenter and Jeff Koch fordata; Alberto Abadie, Neal Beck, Sam Cook, Alexis Diamond, BenHansen, Guido Imbens, Olivia Lau, Gabe Lenz, Paul Rosenbaum,Don Rubin, and Jas Sekhon for many helpful comments; and theNational Institutes of Aging (P01 AG17625-01), the NationalInstitute of Mental Health (MH066247), the National ScienceFoundation (SES-0318275, IIS-9874747, SES-0550873), and thePrinceton University Committee on Research in the Humanitiesand Social Sciences for research support. Software to implementthe methods in this paper is available at http://GKing.Harvard.edu/matchitand a replication data file is available as Ho et al. (2006).     

Das Erste Gesetz zur Änderung des Bundesnaturschutzgesetzes – Ein Ende der Debatte um den europäischen Artenschutz?

Zusammenfassung  Mit der letzten Novellierung des Bundesnaturschutzgesetzes verfolgte der Gesetzgeber die Intention, die vom Europ?ischen Gerichtshof angemahnten Defizite bei den artenschutzrechtlichen Vorschriften im Bundesnaturschutzgesetz zu beseitigen. Dieses Ziel hat der Gesetzgeber im Ergebnis erneut verfehlt. So besteht auch nach der Novellierung weiterhin erhebliche Rechtsunsicherheit bei der Realisierung von Vorhaben und die Bundesrepublik Deutschland l?uft überdies Gefahr, erneut durch den Europ?ischen Gerichtshof verurteilt zu werden. Der Beitrag stellt zun?chst die artenschutzrechtlichen Anforderungen der FFH- und Vogelschutzrichtlinie dar, um sodann anhand der neuen artenschutzrechtlichen Vorschriften im Bundesnaturschutzgesetz Defizite bei der Umsetzung des europ?ischen Artenschutzes in das deutsche Recht aufzuzeigen.     

Have Cities Shifted to Outcome‐Oriented Performance Reporting?—A Content Analysis of City Budgets

“Outcome” orientation has been emphasized in performance measurement and reporting in recent years. Using budgetary documents of the largest cities in the United States, this paper analyzes more than 4,800 performance measures reported by 21 cities to show that clear progress toward outcome‐oriented performance measurement has been made. It also shows that the selection of performance measures differs among types of municipal services and is driven partly by professionalism in city management and the influence of professional organizations. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of the findings and potential future improvements of performance reporting.     

When Marx Borrows from Smith: the ESOP in China

The employee stock ownership plan (ESOP), a capitalist practice, was borrowed for the purpose of rescuing and even consolidating socialist state-owned enterprises during the drive in China to reform ownership. More precisely, ESOP was implemented to bail out failing firms, raise funds, increase work motivation, reduce agency costs, and promote industrial democracy. The findings of a case study of three Chinese state-owned enterprises suggest that some short-term goals were basically achieved, but the accomplishment of the other long-term goals was somewhat problematic. Based on our initial findings, recommendations are put forward for future research and practice.