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871.
The steadily rising share of older voters could lead to them gaining an ever increasing level of political representation compared to younger voters not only because of the imbalance of numbers between the young and the old, but also because turnout rates among the old have always been above-average. The latter argument only applies if the so-called life cycle effect is assumed to be dominant. However, diverse socialisation backgrounds, captured by the cohort effect, also have to be taken into account. It is also unclear what the interplay of these two effects of time implies for future aggregate turnout. Focusing on the German case, we base our analyses on the Repräsentative Wahlstatistik (Representative Electoral Statistic, RES) and population forecasts to estimate consequences of the demographic shifts for all federal elections from 1953 until today, as well as for future elections. First, we calculate life cycle, cohort and period effects on turnout for previous elections by using cohort analysis; second, we apply these net effects to the future age distribution under certain assumptions concerning life cycle and cohort effects. Our results show that the recent decline in turnout is in particular due to negative period effects and (in West Germany) to a minor extent also due to consequences of cohort replacement, whereas changes in the age structure have had a positive effect on turnout since 1990 in both parts of Germany. Additionally, our forecasts suggest that turnout rates will decline and that the over-representation of the old will continue until around 2030 and diminish afterwards in a 'greying' population. 相似文献
872.
Megan R. Holmes Anna E. Bender David S. Crampton Laura A. Voith Dana M. Prince 《Juvenile & family court journal》2019,70(4):11-36
Twenty years ago the National Council of Juvenile and Family Court Judges published Effective Intervention in Domestic Violence and Child Maltreatment: Guidelines for Policy and Practice, which became known as the Greenbook because of its green cover. This article presents the social science research leading up to the Greenbook and the 20 years beyond the publication of this seminal document, including examination of the effect of co‐occurrence of child maltreatment and exposure to domestic violence on child outcomes, the interventions for families to improve the safety of both child and adult victims, and future directions for research. 相似文献
873.
874.
This paper problematizes the fear-based marketing of guns and tasers to both men and women as a function of neoliberalism’s emphasis on consumption as the solution to social problems. Men are marketed dangerous weapons as a way to display their masculinity, while women are told that purchasing guns or tasers is one of the best ways to protect themselves from domestic violence and sexual assault. As the paper shows, that claim is in stark contrast to data about these phenomena, and yet such marketing is often taken as a common sense solution. In addition to detailing why such marketing of weapons is problematic, we offer several recommendations. 相似文献
875.
Individuals involved with the criminal justice system have the highest prevalence of gambling disorder. Yet, this is an understudied area, especially in relation to postrelease functioning and recidivism risk. Participants (N = 100) were recruited from a local nonprofit organization and a federal probation office. Participants completed both self‐report and interviewer‐administered questionnaires assessing past‐year and lifetime gambling behaviors and problems, legal history, health, and risk of recidivism. Past‐year (8%) and lifetime (18%) rates of gambling disorder among the current sample are significantly greater than those of the general population and similar to rates found in incarcerated populations. Furthermore, 13% of individuals reported a direct relationship between their gambling and crime, and analyses revealed that increased gambling severity was a significant predictor of increased recidivism risk. Results suggest the need for screening and intervention efforts and call for policy reform among incarcerated and ex‐offender populations. 相似文献
876.
Tanya Wyatt Kelly Johnson Laura Hunter Ryan George Rachel Gunter 《Asian Journal of Criminology》2018,13(1):35-55
As wildlife trafficking or the illegal wildlife trade has taken a more prominent place on the global agenda, discussions are taking place as to how wildlife trafficking happens. An increased understanding has revealed that corruption is a key facilitator of this profitable and pervasive global black market, but limited research has explored exactly what that corruption looks like and how corruption enables wildlife to be trafficked. Furthermore, research shows that Asia, particularly China and Southeast Asia, are focal points for the supply and demand of certain species of wildlife. Through a literature-based investigation, this paper unpacks the role specific acts of corruption play in the trafficking of ivory, reptile skins and live reptiles from, through or to Asia. It is proposed that not only do individual corrupt acts enable wildlife trafficking to happen, but also that corrupted structures (the criminal justice system, and economic and political foundations) in some societies enable trafficking to happen and also increase the resilience of trafficking to reduction measures. In collating detailed data about the forms of corruption facilitating wildlife trafficking, the gaps in knowledge, and therefore the important areas for further research, become evident. 相似文献
877.
Laura Münkler 《Frontiers of Law in China》2018,13(3):412
Right now internet regulation is standing at the crossroads. Its problem-driven evolution has led to a conglomerate of seemingly diverse rules, which can hardly be structured as one cohesive area of law. Nevertheless, a consolidation of these rules as one cross-sectional field of law is can be identified. The discussion about the terms “internet regulation” and “internet governance” as well as recent developments in this field indicate that a paradigm shift in internet regulation is ongoing. Whereas self-regulation has been the determining mode of internet governance for a long time, internet regulation in the sense of public regulation is currently gaining more influence. This transformation is accompanied by the rising importance of a traditional paradigm of law: the idea of space. Even though the idea of space finds itself challenged with regard to the internet, it can give substance to many different aspects of internet regulation. 相似文献
878.
Refining Stable Oxygen and Hydrogen Isoscapes for the Identification of Human Remains in Mississippi, 下载免费PDF全文
Monica M. Warner M.A. Amber M. Plemons M.A. Nicholas P. Herrmann Ph.D. Laura A. Regan Ph.D. 《Journal of forensic sciences》2018,63(2):395-402
Isoscape refinement is an essential component for accurately predicting region‐of‐origin in forensic investigations involving isotope analysis of unidentified human remains. Stable oxygen (δ18O) and hydrogen (δ2H) isotopes were measured from 57 tap water samples collected across Mississippi to model refined isoscapes for the state. A tap water conversion equation, δ18Otw=1.64 δ18Op?31.35, was developed for the southeastern USA to test the prediction accuracy of the δ18Otw isoscape using individuals with known residential histories. A local Mississippi resident (USAFA‐134) was assigned with 90% probability to the correct region‐of‐origin reported by the participant. Assignments for Georgia residents (USAFA‐118 and USAFA‐205) had variable results, predicting USAFA‐118 from Mississippi and USAFA‐205 as a nonlocal resident. Stable isotope values often overlap geographically and a multi‐isotope approach should be used when narrowing region(s)‐of‐origin(s). This study demonstrates the utility of refining isoscapes and the importance of tissue calibration in prediction assignments of human remains. 相似文献
879.
Jeanine S. M. Van Veelen Arnout E. Bunders Tomris Cesuroglu Jacqueline E. W. Broerse Barbara J. Regeer 《Journal of public child welfare》2018,12(4):411-435
Various child welfare organizations are changing services by adopting child- and family-centered approaches and moving away from redundant bureaucracy, top-down strategies, and fragmented networks. This shift inevitably poses challenges. This article uses the case of intensive family case management in the Netherlands to explore conflicts perceived by professionals and associated coping strategies. Findings are that internal conflicts (leading to a relapse into old routines or to misinterpretation of purpose) and boundary conflicts (leading to a relapse into old collaboration agreements) cause challenges. Pioneering organizations need to provide support for learning and reflection between professionals, seeking alignment between accountability and learning. 相似文献
880.
"The article compares publicly discussed norms concerning the proper age at marriage for men and women in nineteenth-century Netherlands, and the actual trends present in the empirical evidence about marriage age. Medical professionals (the hygienists) expressed the belief that marriage at too young an age was damaging both to public hygiene and the family's health; other commentators stressed the connection between young marriages and poverty. Yet such norms were put forward vaguely, allowing other influences on marriage age to come into play. Consequently, data on marital behavior suggest considerable diversity in the population, with age at marriage varying strongly by class, sex, and region. Generally, age at marriage did not begin to fall until the period 1860-1870, and even after that decade class differences remained strong." 相似文献