Risk-based crime statistics: A forecasting comparison for burglary and auto theft

A major criticism of official statistics on crime is that they use inappropriate bases for computing rates. Here we investigate whether computing crime rates that contain in their denominators the number of exposures to risk of a specific event (e.g., residential burglary and auto theft) provides more accurate forecasts than employing the traditional FBI denominators as a base (e.g., the number of auto thefts and burglaries per 100, 000 persons living in the United States). Single equation, macrodynamic structural models are fitted to both the “traditional” and “alternative” forms of computing auto theft and burglary rates over the twenty-seven-year period from 1947–1974, in order to determine how well they perform on statistical and substantive grounds over the estimation period. Ex-post forecasts of the 1975–1979 observed crime rates, used to gauge the accuracy of these models, reveal few differences between the two kinds of rates in terms of how well they forecast. Both types of rates forecast well with the exogenous variables employed here and lead to similar substantive conclusions. The forecasts of the “traditional” rates are consistently, but only slightly, more accurate than those of the “alternative” rates (in most cases the differences are less than 1 percent). It is argued that the criticism of official data may be overstated and that little benefit accrues from the modification of the rate base for some purposes.     

The relationship of the vampire legend to schizophrenia

The vampire legend has existed in various cultures since antiquity. In the past 250 years, the active belief in vampires has been generally confined to the peoples of Eastern Europe. Vampirism in Western Europe and the United States has meanwhile been relegated to literature and the cinema. The specifics of the vampire legend bear a close resemblance to fundamental dynamic issues seen in schizophrenia and in the content of certain nightmares. By utilizing the formulations of English psychoanalysts such as Klein, Fairbairn, and Guntrip, the vampire legend can be seen to represent the intense, devouring oral needs and fears of a schizophrenic. The vampire theme thus presents psychiatry with a unique phenomenological view of schizophrenia. Several case histories are presented which directly and indirectly exemplify the vampire themes in psychopathology. There seems to be a recent intensification in interest in vampires and other malevolent occult personages. This could represent an increment in the incidence or visibility of severe psychopathology in our culture.Received B.A. and M.D. from the University of Illinois. After completing Internship at the University of Michigan Hospitals, took Psychiatric Residency training at the Psychosomatic and Psychiatric Institute of Michael Reese Hospital and Medical Center. Presently one of the principal investigators in an extensive, multidisciplinary study of the schizophrenic disorders.     

Peace Operations and the Prevention of Genocide

This article discusses the potential and limitations of peace operations in the prevention of genocide. Peace operations encompass a wide range of military and police actions with nontraditional military goals, typically taken under multilateral auspices. These operations have grown in number and complexity in recent years, and current trends point to their playing an ever-growing role with respect to genocide prevention. Despite some progress, there are several significant obstacles to ensuring that peace operations reliably contribute to the prevention of mass atrocities. These include international political dissension, capacity constraints, limits of the military option, and demands of the post-conflict period. If properly designed and resourced, however, peace operations can be an important tool for genocide prevention.