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631.
A model of voting behavior is developed that predicts that individuals vote if the absolute value of voting for or against a referendum exceeds the cost of voting. The results obtained from examining voting on city-county consolidation referenda and in New York state (1) provide support for the relatively untested prediction that turnout rises as the absolute value of the mean gains resulting from an electoral outcome increase and (2) augment the evidence that turnout rises as the probability of altering an electoral outcome increases and falls as the cost of voting rises. 相似文献
632.
Francis T. Cullen Karl W. Heiner Lawrence F. Travis 《American Journal of Criminal Justice》1984,8(2):146-161
To date, relatively few empirical studies have been conducted of provider medicaid fraud or, more generally, of “white-coat
crime”--offenses by health professionals. Based on data accumulated by a quality control unit on the duplicate billings for
a single service by New York State providers, the present research attempts to help fill this void by assessing the prevalence
of medicaid fraud. Two conclusions are suggested by the data. First, unlike other realms of upperworld criminality, provider
fraud does not appear to be pervasive. Second, provider occupations with more of a business orientation appear to have a greater
involvement in fraudulent activities than groups that are more fully professionalized. 相似文献
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634.
In this article we set out to bridge a surprising methodological gap between two time-honored research traditions – news media content analysis and the policy sciences analytic framework. Lasswell, a recognized pioneer of both the method and the framework, discussed the mutual benefits of each decades ago. But few researchers, if any, have formally linked the two. To that end, in this article we (1) make the case for using news media content analysis to inform research studies using the policy sciences analytic framework; (2) introduce an original content analysis categorical system for that purpose; (3) demonstrate that system with a study of 90 national news articles about the stratospheric ozone hole; and (4) compare our system to others used to examine news content. We report that our system, used by human coders, is well geared to describing and mapping trends in the social process surrounding the development of the Montreal Protocol ozone treaty during the intelligence gathering and promotion phases encompassed by our data sample. We argue that other content analysis systems fall short – in structure and purpose – of meeting the promise ours holds to the policy scientist. 相似文献
635.
James Adams Michael Clark Lawrence Ezrow Garrett Glasgow 《American journal of political science》2006,50(3):513-529
Do “niche” parties—such as Communist, Green, and extreme nationalist parties—adjust their policies in response to shifts in public opinion? Would such policy responsiveness enhance these parties' electoral support? We report the results of statistical analyses of the relationship between parties' policy positions, voters' policy preferences, and election outcomes in eight Western European democracies from 1976 to 1998 that suggest that the answer to both questions is no . Specifically, we find no evidence that niche parties responded to shifts in public opinion, while mainstream parties displayed consistent tendencies to respond to public opinion shifts. Furthermore, we find that in situations where niche parties moderated their policy positions they were systematically punished at the polls (a result consistent with the hypothesis that such parties represent extreme or noncentrist ideological clienteles), while mainstream parties did not pay similar electoral penalties. Our findings have important implications for political representation, for spatial models of elections, and for political parties' election strategies. 相似文献
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639.
Motivated by the debate over how to deal with the huge backlog of untested sexual assault kits in the U.S.A., we construct and analyze a mathematical model that predicts the expected number of hits (i.e., a new DNA profile matches a DNA sample in the criminal database) as a function of both the proportion of the backlog that is tested and whether the victim–offender relationship is used to prioritize the kits that are tested. Refining the results in Ref. (Criminol Public Policy, 2016, 15, 555), we use data from Detroit, where government funding was used to process ≈15% of their backlog, to predict that prioritizing stranger kits over nonstranger kits leads to only a small improvement in performance (a 0.034 increase in the normalized area under the curve of the hits vs. proportion of backlog tested curve). Two rough but conservative cost‐benefit analyses—one for testing the entire backlog and a marginal one for testing kits from nonstranger assaults—suggest that testing all sexual assault kits in the backlog is quite cost‐effective: for example, spending ≈$1641 to test a kit averts sexual assaults costing ≈$133,484 on average. 相似文献
640.
Berger LM Langton C 《The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science》2011,635(1):56-75
This article reviews the existing literature on young disadvantaged fathers' involvement with children. It first outlines the predominant theoretical perspectives regarding father involvement among resident (married and cohabiting) biological fathers, resident social fathers (unrelated romantic partners of children's mothers), and nonresident biological fathers. Second, it presents a brief discussion of the ways in which fathers contribute to childrearing. Third, it describes the socioeconomic characteristics of men who enter fatherhood at a young age, highlighting that they tend to be socioeconomically disadvantaged. Fourth, it reviews the empirical research on both antecedents of father involvement and patterns of involvement across father types. Finally, it describes the limitations of existing research and provides suggestions for future research and policy. 相似文献