Evaluating prediction of technology transfer success: An interim evaluation of the dutch sensor technology program

Technology Foundation STW, a grant organization in the Netherlands, selects research proposals from universities on the basis of their scientific quality and their utilization potential. The proposals are in the field of applied science. STW also assists the research groups in the four years after the grant by bringing together the researchers and the potential users in half-day meeti gs twice a year at the university concerned. STW seeks methods to relate the differences in the research outcomes (“evaluation after”) to the differences in assessment rankings (“evaluation before”). This study will focus on the evaluation of a sensor technology program managed by STW as a subset of the larger set of all research projects funded by STW. We go back to the most basic and simple definition of utilization of outcome, namely whether the research results were or were not used by parties outside the university. This simple basis gives surprisingly positive results. First, it does indeed seem that for STW as a whole, the assessment beforehand is a predictor of the chance that the results will be used later. But this does not seem to be true as far as the subset of sensor technology projects is concerned. These findings can help us obtain more insight into what our selection process does and into what determines the success rate in terms of utilization six years after the research has ended.     

A computational electoral competition model with social clustering and endogenous interest groups as information brokers

We extend the basic model of spatial competition in two directions. First, political parties and voters do not have complete information but behave adaptively. Political parties use polls to search for policy platforms that maximize the probability of winning an election and the voting decision of voters is influenced by social interaction. Second, we allow for the emergence of interest groups. These interest groups transmit information about voter preferences to the political parties, and they coordinate voting behavior. We use simulation methods to investigate the convergence properties of this model. We find that the introduction of social dynamics and interest groups increases the separation between parties platforms, prohibits convergence to the center of the distribution of voter preferences, and increases the size of the winning set.     

Psychotic versus non-psychotic firesetters: similarities and differences in characteristics

Firesetters with psychotic disorders constitute a distinct and important offender group. However, little is known about how psychotic firesetters differ from non-psychotic firesetters. More knowledge is required in order to treat this particular population effectively. Psychotic (n?=?30) and non-psychotic (n?=?94) firesetters of both sexes referred for pre-trial forensic mental health assessment in the Netherlands were compared on socio-demographic, pathological, judicial and event-related characteristics using binary and multivariate statistical tests. Results showed that psychotic firesetters were older, single and unemployed. They had a more extensive history of mental health problems, associated drug use and impaired self-reliance. Opposed to non-psychotic offenders, physical abuse in childhood and alcohol abuse were less prevalent. They had a more extensive history of prior convictions, committed the arsons more often alone and were less often intoxicated. Treatment implications are discussed as focusing treatment on these differences may contribute to treatment efficacy and prevention of recidivism.     

A European “Equivalent” to United States Export Controls: European Law on the Control of International Trade in Dual-Use Space Technologies

This article analyzes the system developed within Europe, more precisely within the European Union through European Community law, to address the security-sensitive issues involved in the export of hardware, software, and knowledge for the purpose of space activities and major space applications. The subject is introduced with reference to the far better known export control developments within the United States, such as those concerning International Traffic in Arms Regulations, and the international understandings under the Missile Technology Control Regime and Wassenaar Arrangement. European Community Regulations for export controls provide for a complex system of balances between national sovereignty and Europe-wide harmonization. This European Community regime, though ultimately still dependent upon individual state's sovereign controls, establishes an interesting measure of international harmonization in security-sensitive export controls. Although the European Community regime is fraught with many complexities, it manages to avoid some of the pitfalls evident in the United States and international regimes, notably the confusing discussions on discerning weaponry proper from other space items with dual-use potential. This is the result mainly of an approach characterized by a primary intention to harmonize, rather than to apply strict controls per se, resulting in a transparency and consistency that are not only valuable to commercial entrepreneurs, but also to those concerned primarily with the security risks posed by the international space industry. As for the space industry in particular, it is helpful that the European Community regime specifically carves out civil space activities, for example if conducted within the context of the European Space Agency or national space agency activities.