Economics, Party, and the Vote: Causality Issues and Panel Data

Conventional wisdom argues that national economic perceptions generally have an important impact on the vote choice in democracies. Recently, a revisionist view has arisen, contending that this link, regularly observed in election surveys, is mostly spurious. According to the argument, partisanship distorts economic perception, thereby substantially exaggerating the real vote connection. These causality issues have not been much investigated empirically, despite their critical importance. Utilizing primarily American, and secondarily British and Canadian, election panel surveys, we confront directly questions of the time dynamic and independent variable exogeneity. We find, after all, economics clearly matters for the vote. Indeed, once these causality concerns are properly taken into account, the impact of economic perceptions emerges as larger than previously thought. As well, the actual impact of partisanship is clearly reduced.     

Voting on slavery at the Constitutional Convention

This paper provides the first empirical study of delegate voting behavior on issues of slavery at the U.S. Constitutional Convention. We analyze two categories of votes: those related to apportionment and those related to the regulation of the slave trade. Although it is widely believed that delegates voted consistent with the interests of their states on issues of slavery, we find that for votes on apportionment, the effect of state interests was enhanced by both the delegate’s personal interest and his religious background. For votes regulating the slave trade, state interests had a significant effect but only within specific regions.     

The Interstate Sprawl System

The Interstate Sprawl System is an article about the role of automobile transportation in the culture and civilization of the USA. After demonstrating that all previous civilizations in history have gathered around trading ports, where land values rise as the proximity to the port increases, it analyses the changes wrought by the grid system of transportation brought on by the automobile in the USA, where land values remain fairly constant and no core trading centers can be found. These changes include the decimation of the old port cities as well as the urbanization of rural lands. The article concludes with an appeal to encourage inter-city rapid rail as the obvious antidote to the problem.

Three conditions under which experiments and observational studies produce comparable causal estimates: New findings from within‐study comparisons

This paper analyzes 12 recent within‐study comparisons contrasting causal estimates from a randomized experiment with those from an observational study sharing the same treatment group. The aim is to test whether different causal estimates result when a counterfactual group is formed, either with or without random assignment, and when statistical adjustments for selection are made in the group from which random assignment is absent. We identify three studies comparing experiments and regression‐discontinuity (RD) studies. They produce quite comparable causal estimates at points around the RD cutoff. We identify three other studies where the quasi‐experiment involves careful intact group matching on the pretest. Despite the logical possibility of hidden bias in this instance, all three cases also reproduce their experimental estimates, especially if the match is geographically local. We then identify two studies where the treatment and nonrandomized comparison groups manifestly differ at pretest but where the selection process into treatment is completely or very plausibly known. Here too, experimental results are recreated. Two of the remaining studies result in correspondent experimental and nonexperimental results under some circumstances but not others, while two others produce different experimental and nonexperimental estimates, though in each case the observational study was poorly designed and analyzed. Such evidence is more promising than what was achieved in past within‐study comparisons, most involving job training. Reasons for this difference are discussed. © 2008 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

论行政程序法的基本价值目标

行政过程应当是一个最优化的管理过程,应以较小的社会成本获得较大的社会效益,这就需要在程序上设置相关制度使行政过程导捷、有效。行政活动不仅是分政主体单方面的管理过程,还涉及相对人的权利义务关系。需要为相对人的权利提供必要保障,以保证行政过程的分正性。因此,效率和分正应当成为行政程序法的基本价值目标。     

China's Future Economic Regionalization

This paper investigates China's economic growth potentials and limitation up to 2020 and recommends a trend of economic regionalization. A sustainable growing economy is a necessity for China's future stability. The growth sustainability of the Chinese economy depends essentially on its continued commitments to institutional reform and economic deregulation. China's relaxation of government intervention in economic activities has led and will be leading China to decentralize its central governmental authority over economic planning and control. This will consequently stimulate the emergence of regional economies in Mainland China. In the next two decades, there will likely be 10 regional economies with relatively independent industrial structures emerging in Greater China (or the Chinese Economic Area of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and the Mainland) as a result of economic liberalization and decentralization.     

中国大陆有组织犯罪发展的11种趋势

由于各种消极因素的影响 ,中国大陆有组织犯罪的发展将呈现出如下发展趋势 :1.在数量上将呈增长之势 ,在质量上将向典型的黑社会组织演化 ;2.将成为影响某些地区社会治安秩序的主要威胁 ;3.犯罪形式将不断翻新 ;4.“组织化”程度将有明显提高 ;5.将逐步走向“职业化” ;6.反社会心理更加严重 ,犯罪手段将更加狡猾 ;7.装备将更加现代化 ,持枪抢劫等大案将急剧增加 ;8.农村有组织犯罪的升级为农村黑社会势力的发展准备了条件 ;9.向经济领域的发展将进一步加速 ;10.向政治领域的渗透将日趋明显 ;11.“国际化”的趋势将日益突出。     

社会主义市场经济保卫战是新时期公安工作的重要主题

社会主义市场经济保卫战是新时期公安工作的重要主题,是公安机关的龙头工作,是掌握新形势下治安主动权的必由之路。社会主义市场经济保卫战既是重大的理论创新,也是具有革命性意义的重大治安举措。要有效地实施社会主义市场经济保卫战,必须处理好理论与实践、整体与重点、战略与战术、目的与手段的关系,强化创新意识、效益意识、公安产业意识和本领意识。