The dynamic political economy of support for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential election campaign

In recent years, students of voting behavior have become increasingly interested in valence politics models of electoral choice. These models share the core assumption that key issues in electoral politicds typically are ones upon which there is a widespread public consensus on the goals of public policy. The present paper uses latent curve modeling procedures and data from a six-wave national panel survey of the American electorate to investigate the dynamic effects of voters’ concerns with the worsening economy—a valence issue par excellence—in the skein of causal forces at work in the 2008 presidential election campaign. As the campaign developed, the economy became the dominant issue. Although the massively negative public reaction to increasingly perilous economic conditions was not the only factor at work in 2008, dynamic multivariate analyses show that mounting worries about the economy played an important role in fueling Barack Obama’s successful run for the presidency.     

Effect of financial sector development and FDI inflow on employment rate in South Asia: New empirical evidence from ARDL approach

The current analysis aims to explore the empirical nexus between financial development, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, and employment rate. To attain this aim, we collect 30 years of annual data over the period 1990 to 2019 from South Asian economies and employ the autoregressive dynamic least square (ARDL) model for regression analysis. The implication of the ARDL model was subject to the mixed stationarity status of the series as assessed by unit root testing. The robustness of the analysis was checked by employing the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models. The statistical analysis infers that both financial development and FDI inflow enhance the employment rate in the South Asia region. In addition, the empirical analysis infers that the gross capital formation, economic growth, and export volume have a positive while the population growth rate has a negative effect on the employment rate. The impact of underlying explanatory variables was found significant only in long run. The estimated coefficient values in the case of FMOLS and DOLS models support the direction of the relationship between explanatory variables and employment rate, implying the robustness of the analysis. The findings of the current analysis can be used to devise efficient economic policies to cope with the encroaching issue of unemployment in the South Asia region. This study offers the robustness to existing literature and complements the literature by exploring the underlying arrangement of study to the whole South Asia group.     

Race/ethnicity,citizenship status,and crime examined through trauma experiences among young adults in the United States

Race/ethnicity, citizenship status, and trauma, have significant impact on delinquency and crime outcomes; though the reasons for some expected and unexpected crime pathways are still unanswered. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (n?=?7,103), this study found the following results: no difference in the likelihood of engagement in delinquency and crime between blacks and whites; cumulative trauma increased delinquency and crime rates for all racial and ethnic groups; racial and ethnic minority groups compared to whites reported a significantly higher level of childhood trauma experiences; and native-born female immigrant groups (but not male) were more likely to engage in delinquency and crime than first-generation female immigrant groups. Implications and recommendations are set forth.     

Inconsistencies across repeated eyewitness interviews: supportive negative feedback can make witnesses change their memory reports

Past work shows that direct negative feedback and suggestive questioning can lead eyewitnesses to change their memory reports. Applying Gudjonsson’s [2003. The psychology of interrogations and confessions: A handbook. West Sussex: Wiley] model of interrogative suggestibility to interviews with witnesses, the present two experiments examined how indirect negative feedback delivered in a supportive manner from an interviewer can make witnesses change what they report they remember experiencing. After viewing a video of a crime, participants were interviewed twice, with either supportive negative feedback (i.e. with the interviewer sympathetically suggesting why many people’s memory may be inaccurate) or neutral feedback between the two rounds of questions. Results showed that people given supportive negative feedback changed significantly more of their responses than those given neutral feedback. Lower confidence ratings were associated with greater response change, but overall, despite having changed more responses, people given supportive negative feedback did not have reduced confidence or perceived accuracy. Type of feedback did not impact accuracy, and accuracy was not systematically related to confidence or perceived accuracy. Given the role that eyewitness reports play in the criminal justice system, better understanding factors that impact consistency and reliability is vital.     

Physical,Social, and Perceived Availabilities of Alcohol and Last Month Alcohol Use in Rural and Small Urban Communities

This study seeks to provide a greater understanding of the factors that determine the perceived availability of alcohol and its role in predicting adolescents’ alcohol use. Participants were 151,703 7th–12th grade students (50% female) from a sample of 219 rural communities across the United States, with oversampling for predominantly Mexican-American and African-American communities. Multilevel analysis was used to estimate the perceived availability of alcohol as a function of physical and social availability measures and individual and community-level control variables. Physical availability was measured as the number of alcohol outlets in the community and whether beer and wine were sold in non-liquor stores. Social availability measured the availability of alcohol from social or family groups. Last month alcohol use was then estimated as a function of physical, social and perceived availabilities and control variables. Physical availability had little relationship to perceived availability or recent alcohol use while social availability was a strong predictor of both. Perceived availabilities at the individual and community levels were significant in predicting last month alcohol use. The findings suggest that altering both perceived and actual availability of alcohol can potentially have strong effects on the levels of adolescent alcohol use.     

The influence of stereotypical beliefs, participant gender, and survivor weight on sexual assault response

The present study explored the influence of survivor weight and participant gender, rape myth acceptance, and antifat attitudes on perceptions of sexual assault. Using an online survey tool, a community sample of 413 adult Canadian residents reviewed a hypothetical sexual assault scenario and completed a series of evaluations and attitudinal questionnaires. Generalized linear model analyses revealed that participants were more likely to hold the survivor responsible, excuse the perpetrator's actions, and respond more negatively toward the survivor and more positively toward the perpetrator when the survivor was depicted as thin versus overweight. Interactions were found between rape myth acceptance and survivor weight, gender and survivor weight, and gender and antifat attitudes, for certain dependent variables. In addition, men and those with higher levels of rape myth acceptance and antifat attitudes were found to make more negative evaluations of the survivor and more positive evaluations of the perpetrator. Recommendations for future research and interventions are discussed.     

A multi-site, randomized study of strengths-based case management with substance-abusing parolees

Objectives  

To test whether strengths-based case management provided during an inmate’s transition from incarceration to the community increases participation in community substance abuse treatment, enhances access to needed social services, and improves drug use, crime, and HIV risk outcomes.     

Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: The Seats-Votes model

The Seats-Votes model forecasts party seat shares in the House of Commons using data from general elections and opinion polls between 1945 and 2009. The model is built on a generalisation of the cube rule which provided a fairly accurate method of translating votes into seats when Britain was effectively a two party system prior to the 1970s. It combines past information on seat shares in the current Parliament with voting intention data six months prior to the general election to forecast seat shares. Applied to the task of forecasting the outcome of a general election in early May of 2010, it predicts a hung Parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party. The relatively small sample used to estimate the model means that predictions about the size of the parties in Parliament are quite tentative, though predictions about the likelihood of a hung Parliament are more certain.