Modes of transition and the timing of separatist war onset: a comparative analysis of South Ossetia and Kosovo

This paper compares the escalation of civil war in South Ossetia and Kosovo and shows how different modes of transition deeply influenced the timing and type of conflict in these two cases. It argues that regimes resulting from a transition from above – when the elite in power leads the process of regime change and imposes its political agenda on other social actors – are more likely to ensure political stability in the short term, since governments are more cohesive internally, enjoy the support of the military, and can rely on a loyal bureaucracy. In contrast, regimes that emerge from transitions from below are more likely to experience civil war with an ethnic minority in the short term because of an intrinsic weakness of the elite in power. Under these circumstances, the newcomers need to win the loyalty of the military and of the bureaucracy, and separatist groups can take advantage of the incumbents’ weaknesses and try to build resources to militarily challenge the state.     

How Targeted Enforcement Shapes Marketing Decisions of Pimps: Evidence of Displacement and Innovation

Abstract

Little research to date has examined how those who serve as intermediaries between clients and prostitutes (i.e., pimps) are influenced by targeted police interventions. While earlier work noted that displacement from risky online venues (i.e., Backpage and Craigslist) occurs, this study relies on data gathered from interviews with a purposive sample of pimps in the cities of Atlanta and Chicago to examine further the effects of targeted enforcement on where pimps advertise online and use of technological tools to reduce risk of detection. Pimps who advertised on the Internet were not different from those who used nonvirtual advertising, suggesting similar markets in the virtual and nonvirtual illicit sex trade. The vast majority of pimps who utilized the Internet for business continued to use Craigslist and/or Backpage to advertise and developed additional tactics to leverage their use. Some pimps broadened their presence on the Internet to other locations (specialized websites), moved to the deep web, and utilized different technological tools to reduce their risk of detection. Last, pimps adopted more interactive marketing strategies that permitted them to remain where their customers were familiar, but tap into sections of websites that previously had not been utilized.     

Comparing Male and Female Prison Releasees across Risk Factors and Postprison Recidivism

This study, using data from a large sample of prison releasees, examined the similarities and differences in men's and women's risk factors for recidivism involving rearrest for any crime and rearrest for a violent crime during an average 3.4-year follow-up period. Logistic regressions revealed several gender differences. Prior incarceration, time served, and specific types of prior arrest histories had differential associations with women's and men's overall and violent recidivism. Age, race, and conviction offense were gender-specific risk factors for overall recidivism, and education level and marital status were gender-specific risk factors for violent recidivism. Implications for risk assessment are discussed.     

Parenting and Intimate Relationship Effects on Women Offenders' Recidivism and Noncompliance with Probation

This study disentangled the effects of intimate relationships and parenting on women probationers’ noncompliance. Data from a sample of 257 women were analyzed using logistic and negative binomial regression. Women with nonconforming intimate partners missed treatment more frequently, had a higher likelihood of missing a probation appointment, and had a higher chance of a new arrest for substance abuse or misdemeanor crimes during a 3-year follow-up period. Women parenting children had fewer missed probation appointments. Missed probation appointments increased the risk of recidivism for all crime categories except driving under the influence. Implications of these findings are discussed.     

Formation and change in lay evaluations of criminal sentencing

In public opinion polls, a substantial proportion of lay respondents report that judges are too lenient. We examine the factors that contribute to this perceived judicial leniency. The majority of lay respondents in our study said that judges are too lenient in their sentencing of burglary offenders; yet, their own sentencing preferences were more lenient than the required minimum sentence for residential burglary. Our survey and experimental data suggest that citizens' opinions are formed by their inaccurate impressions of the seriousness of actual criminal cases as well as actual judicial sentencing practices. Our experimental research indicates that opinions of judicial leniency can be changed by providing respondents with an example of the typical case that comes before the court. Directions for future research are discussed.We wish to express gratitude to Patti Vea, who, under the supervision of the first author, collected and entered the data from mass transit riders. We are indebted to Judge Warren Wolfson, Court Administrator Jeff Arnold, Chief Judge Harry Comerford, and Judge Frank W. Barbaro and his jury pool officers who gave us permission and assistance in obtaining juror participation for this research. We would like to thank Tom Tyler and Patrick McAnany for their insightful comments on earlier drafts, and editor Ron Roesch and three anonymous reviewers for their helpful suggestions.     

Identifying Three Types of Violent Offenders and Predicting Violent Recidivism While on Probation: A Classification Tree Analysis

This study employs classification tree analysis (CTA) to address whether 3 groups of violent offenders have similar or different risk factors for violent recidivism while on probation. A sample of 1344 violent offenders on probation was classified as generalized aggressors (N = 302), family only aggressors (N = 321), or nonfamily only aggressors (N = 717). The strongest predictor of violent recidivism while on probation was whether the offender was a generalized aggressor or not, with generalized aggressors more likely to be arrested for new violent crimes. Prior arrests for violent crimes predicted violent recidivism of generalized aggressors, but did not significantly predict violent recidivism of family only and nonfamily only aggressors. For generalized aggressors and family only batterers, treatment noncompliance was an important risk predictor of violent recidivism. CTA compared to logistic regression classified a higher percentage of cases into low-risk and high-risk groups, provided higher improvement in classification accuracy of violent recidivists beyond chance performance, and provided a better balance of false positives and false negatives. The implications for the risk assessment and domestic violence literature are discussed.     

QUESTIONS ABOUT FAMILY COURT DOMESTIC VIOLENCE SCREENING AND ASSESSMENT

Increasingly, family courts are seeking ways to focus limited resources on cases that require the most intervention, tailor court responses and dispute methods to each case, and account for the real differences among domestic violence cases. One of the means to that end may be the triaging or screening of cases. This article raises a number of questions about screening and urges that they be addressed by courts and communities that are considering whether and how to design a screening protocol. Issues include: How should we define domestic violence for the purposes of screening? Who should carry out the screening? How can we maximize the likelihood that we will fully assess the context of the violence in each case? How should we assess the risks or dangers inherent in the parties’ situation? How should a screening effort account for changing circumstances as a case proceeds through the courts? How can information gathered in a screening effort improperly impact subsequent decisions of the court?