Analyzing block randomized studies: the example of the Jersey City drug market analysis experiment

Objectives

While block randomized designs have become more common in place-based policing studies, there has been relatively little discussion of the assumptions employed and their implications for statistical analysis. Our paper seeks to illustrate these assumptions, and controversy regarding statistical approaches, in the context of one of the first block randomized studies in criminal justice—the Jersey City Drug Market Analysis Project (DMAP).

Methods

Using DMAP data, we show that there are multiple approaches that can be used in analyzing block randomized designs, and that those approaches will yield differing estimates of statistical significance. We develop outcomes using both models with and without interaction, and utilizing both Type I and Type III sums-of-squares approaches. We also examine the impacts of using randomization inference, an approach for estimating p values not based on approximations using normal distribution theory, to adjust for possible small N biases in estimating standard errors.

Results

The assumptions used for identifying the analytic approach produce a comparatively wide range of p values for the main DMAP program impacts on hot spots. Nonetheless, the overall conclusions drawn from our re-analysis remain consistent with the original analyses, albeit with more caution. Results were similar to the original analyses under different specifications supporting the identification of diffusion of benefits effects to nearby areas.

Conclusions

The major contribution of our article is to clarify statistical modeling in unbalanced block randomized studies. The introduction of blocking adds complexity to the models that are estimated, and care must be taken when including interaction effects in models, whether they are ANOVA models or regression models. Researchers need to recognize this complexity and provide transparent and alternative estimates of study outcomes.

     

第三方警务与保险——以市场为基准的犯罪预防案例研判（上）

本文试图探讨一种新的发展趋势。即以市场为基准展开的犯罪预防。保险公司是该种新型犯罪预防模式的代表机构。尽管保险的传统关注点在于犯罪或其他灾难发生后所遭受的损失,我们在此将揭示保险业从反应型犯罪管理模式向主动型管理模式的转变。该种趋势是更广义上的“去中心化警务”（decentralization of policing）的一部分,即警务从国家控制的管理机构向以社区和市场为基准的第三方的转移。新的意识形态支持这种转变,包括针对犯罪的保险统计理念的更新和对谨慎之人看法的转变。     

Instruments for Exploring Organizational Culture: A Review of the Literature

Organizational culture is widely considered to be one of the most significant factors in reforming and modernizing public administration and service delivery. This article documents the findings of a literature review of existing qualitative and quantitative instruments for the exploration of organizational culture. Seventy instruments are identified, of which 48 could be submitted to psychometric assessment. The majority of these are at a preliminary stage of development. The study's conclusion is that there is no ideal instrument for cultural exploration. The degree to which any measure is seen as "fit for purpose" depends on the particular reason for which it is to be used and the context within which it is to be applied.     

Counterterrorism Effectiveness to Jihadists in Western Europe and the United States: We Are Losing the War on Terror

A comparative analysis of Islamic extremism post-9/11 to 2015 and the effectiveness of the counterterrorism (CT) authorities to counter it in both Western Europe and the United States was conducted. Four measures of effectiveness revealed that 2010–2015 saw a gradual increase in jihadi attacks and in casualties emanating from these attacks, and more jihadists, foreign fighters, and material supporters. Additionally, 2013–2015 saw a 22 percent reduction both in Western Europe and the U.S. CT agencies' ability to counter Islamic extremism. We are losing the War on Terror and our citizens are less safe than they were six years ago. Further analysis revealed that singleton jihadists: (1) were much harder than group-based jihadists to uncover, (2) have been increasing since 2009, and (3) have generated over 70 percent of all jihadi violence. Finally, numerous similarities exist between Western Europe and the United States with respect to jihadism in their homelands and their respective CT effectiveness, indicating close cross-Atlantic CT collaboration since 9/11. This in-depth analysis provides essential threat/hazard information to security, law enforcement, intelligence, and policymaking personnel and the greater homeland security communities.     

Responsible and responsive knowing in medical diagnosis: the medical gaze revisited

The medical gaze has long been privileged over the voice of the patient as the source of medical knowledge, in western societies. The ontology (that is, the very existence) of symptoms invisible to scientific observation will thus tend to be questioned by medical professionals. Yet any gaze, even the medical one, is refracted through the lenses both of social‐cultural stereotypes and of gender, and its seeings are shaped by these refractions. In this article, two family physicians and an epistemologist examine certain “unexplained” disorders, in a conversation informed by a feminist perspective: they bring a feminist point of view to bear on these issues. Medically unexplained disorders, which occur most frequently in women, are disabling conditions for which objectively observable symptoms and/or scientific causal explanations are not available. The approach taken in this article makes some of the assumptions underlying clinical knowledge more clearly visible: the authors' conversation situates diagnostic activity in medicine as a gendered, power‐infused social interaction within a cultural context where the gold standard of medical knowledge is very narrowly set. The participants propose responsible and responsive knowing as alternative strategies for knowing well. As they are presented here, these strategies incorporate an awareness of the inherent uncertainty of medical knowledge, raise questions about those to whom the knower is accountable, acknowledge the patient's experiences, and attend to the potentially oppressive effects of expert knowing.     

Feminism and the Flat Law Theory

This article examines two modalities of law, depicted spatially as the vertical and the horizontal. The intellectual background for seeing law in vertical and horizontal dimensions is to be found in much socio-legal scholarship. These approaches have challenged the modernist, legal positivist and essentially vertical view of law as a system of imperatives emanating from a hierarchically superior source such as a sovereign. In keeping with the socio-legal critical tradition, but approaching it from the perspective of legal philosophy, my aim is to address three matters. First, why is vertical law problematic for feminists? Second, what are the theoretical characteristics of law in its horizontal register? Third, how is an appreciation of this ‘flat’ law useful for feminist legal theory and practice? In particular, I consider the ways in which feminist legal theory operating in the horizontal dimension can transgress, without transcending, the vertically determined perimeters of the nation state.     

Suicidal ideation in adolescence: Depression,substance use,and other risk factors

The interrelationships of depression and suicide with adolescent drug use, delinquency, eating disorders, and the risk factors for these different problems were investigated among 597 9th and 11th graders in an urban high school. There is a strong association of drug use with suicidal ideation among girls, and a stronger relationship with attempts among girls and boys. Suicidal youths are ill-adjusted and display a lack of attachment and commitment to family and school. Causal models indicate that poor interpersonal interactions with parents, absence of peer interactions, and life events lead to depression, which in turn leads to suicidal ideation. Depressive symptoms are the strongest predictors of suicidal ideation. Among females, depression predicts drug involvement, and in turn, drug use increases suicidal ideation. Drug use is only one class of problem behaviors that constitutes a risk factor for suicidal behavior in adolescence. Delinquency and eating disorders also have direct effects on suicidal ideation beyond those of depressive affect. As for drug involvement, these problem behaviors are more predictive of suicidal behavior among girls than boys. Similarity and specificity of the predictors for problem behaviors within and between the sexes are discussed. Although young women use drugs to handle feelings of depression, drug use appears ineffective in the long run in relieving these depressive feelings. Understanding the dynamics of suicidal ideation in adolescence has important public health implications, since ideation is a strong predictor of attempts, especially among females.Revised version of a presentation at the Workshop on Adolescent Depression, Princeton, NJ, June 3, 1987.Work on this research has been partially supported by Research Grants DA00064, DA01097, DA03196, and DA02867, and by Research Scientist Award DA00081 from the National Institute on Drug Abuse; and awards from the John D. and Catherine MacArthur Foundation and the Research Foundation for Mental Hygiene, New York State Psychiatric Institute. Partial support for computer costs was provided by Mental Health Clinical Research Center Grant MH30906-07 from NIMH to the New York State Psychiatric Institute.Received Ph.D. in Sociology from Columbia University. Research interests include adolescent psychosocial development, epidemiology and risk factors for drug use, and interpersonal networks.Work on this research was carried out while a Research Associate at the School of Public Health, Columbia University. Received Ph.D. in Sociology from Columbia University. Research interests include personal networks and social support systems in chronic illness, societal factors in mental health, psychosocial consequences of drug use and abuse, panel mortality, and survey methodology.Received M.P.H. from Columbia University. Research interests include reliability and child psychiatry.