Improving information evaluation for intelligence production

National security decision-making is informed by intelligence assessments, which in turn depend on sound information evaluation. We critically examine information evaluation methods, arguing that they mask rather than effectively guide subjectivity in intelligence assessment. Drawing on the guidance metaphor, we propose that rigid ‘all-purpose’ information evaluation methods be replaced by flexible ‘context-sensitive’ guidelines aimed at improving the soundness, precision, accuracy and clarity of irreducibly subjective judgments. Specific guidelines, supported by empirical evidence, include use of numeric probability estimates to quantify the judged likelihood of information accuracy, promoting collector-analyst collaboration and periodic revaluation of information as new information is acquired.     

DNA identification of "Earthquake McGoon" 50 years postmortem

This report describes the genetic identification of James "Earthquake McGoon" McGovern, a WWII fighter ace who perished in Laos while providing supplies to French troops during the French Indochina war. Because reference samples were unavailable for all of the potential casualties, testing of the entire mitochondrial genome, autosomal STRs and Y-chromosomal STRs was performed to increase the genetic information available for analysis. Kinship analyses performed on the evidentiary data and numerous indirect family references for McGovern excluded other possible casualties and definitively established McGovern's identity. This particular case demonstrates the practical utility of novel research technologies and aggressive genetic typing protocols in the identification of aged, degraded remains.     

External influence on parliamentarians in Kenya

Many scholars argue that the media can influence parliamentarians though the extent of that influence is hotly debated. There is some evidence that the relationship is two way, with politicians taking note of salient media stories but using the media to communicate with their constituents. It is also apparent that, whilst the media may have a role in drawing attention to specific issues, politicians in Kenya do not entirely trust it and thus use a wide range of other sources including government agencies as well as third party sources such as interest groups. This article addresses two gaps in our knowledge―the extent to which parliamentarians in Kenya turn to unofficial sources for information and public opinion, especially interest groups, and the extent to which the media in particular influences parliamentarians in Kenya. The results suggest that parliamentarians in Kenya rely to some extent on both the media and interest groups and that the media is good at raising awareness and stimulating action but that it has only a modest effect on political actions.