On the Complexity and Accuracy of Geographic Profiling Strategies

Geographic profilers have access to a repertoire of strategies for predicting a serial offenders home location. These strategies range in complexity—some involve more calculations to implement than others—and the assumption often made is that more complex strategies will outperform simpler strategies. In the present study, we tested the relationship between the complexity and accuracy of 11 strategies. Data were crime site and home locations of 16 UK residential burglars who had committed 10 or more crimes each. The results indicated that strategy complexity was not positively related to accuracy. This was also found to be the case across tasks that ranged in complexity (where complexity was determined by the number of crimes used to make a prediction). Implications for police policies and procedures, as well as our understanding of human decision-making, are discussed.To whom correspondence should be addressed. Phone: +1-709-737-3101; E-mail: bsnook@play.psych.mun.ca     

Jail drug and alcohol treatment program reduces recidivism in nonviolent offenders: a longitudinal study of Monroe County, New York's, Jail Treatment Drug and Alcohol Program

Substance abuse treatment has become the new fashion for reducing recidivism among inmates. But the question is, does this work? Various studies have been done tracking the same cohort of inmates over time to assess the validity of treatment. This study assesses one treatment program's success over 5 years to determine if drug and alcohol treatment reduces recidivism among nonviolent, short-term (sentence of less than a year) inmates. Monroe County's drug treatment program demonstrates that for 1 year after receiving the treatment, three different cohorts of nonviolent, short-term inmates (1995, 1998, and 2000) were found to be substantially less likely to be recidivists than control group inmates.     

Comparing sex offender risk assessment measures on a UK sample

The purpose of this study on 139 sex offenders was to consider the application of six measures of risk: Static-99, SACJ-Min (Structured Anchored Clinical Judgment Scale-Minimum), RRASOR (Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offence Recidivism), Risk Matrix 2000-Sexual/Violent, and SVR-20 (Sexual Violence Risk-20) and to compare risk assessments conducted by a Regional Secure Unit (RSU) and the Probation Service. Levels of risk for the RSU sample ranged from 1% to 42% low risk to 1% to 66% high risk compared with the Probation sample of 8% to 43% low risk to 4% to 70% high risk. Offenders with adult victims obtained significantly higher scores using the RM2000/S and SACJ-Min than did those with child victims who obtained significantly higher scores on the RRASOR. Sex offenders referred to a RSU scored significantly higher on RRASOR and RM2000/S than did sex offenders supervised by the Probation Service. Forensic practitioners may be better served if risk measures assess specific subcategories of sexual offenders.     

Developmental validation of a single-tube amplification of the 13 CODIS STR loci, D2S1338, D19S433, and amelogenin: the AmpFlSTR Identifiler PCR Amplification Kit

Analysis of length polymorphism at short tandem repeat (STR) loci utilizing the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) process has proven to be an ideal assay for human identification purposes. The short length of STR loci coupled with the amplification of target sequence through PCR allows for a robust, sensitive, and specific assay for highly polymorphic markers. A multiplex containing fifteen STR loci plus the gender-determining locus Amelogenin was developed to provide a single amplification/detection of all CODIS (Combined DNA Index System) STR loci (CSF1PO, D3S1358, D5S818, D7S820, D8S1179, D13S317, D16S539, D18S51, D21S11, FGA, TH01, TPOX, and vWA) as well as two internationally-accepted STRs (D2S1338 and D19S433). By incorporating five-dye fragment analysis technology and non-nucleotide linkers, previously optimized AmpFlSTR kit primer sequences have been maintained. This kit has been developed in accordance with the standards of the forensic community as defined by the DNA Advisory Board. Validation studies were performed to include developmental validation, and the results support the use of the AmpFlSTR Identifiler PCR Amplification Kit for human identity and parentage testing.     

States as Policy Laboratories: Emulating Success in the Children's Health Insurance Program

This article illustrates the use of the directed dyad-year event history analysis to study policy diffusion, with an application to policy changes in the Children's Health Insurance Program from 1998 to 2001. This analysis reveals strong evidence that states with successful policies are more likely to be emulated than are those with failing policies. Evidence of success is especially relevant for policy changes that lower program costs rather than those raising costs, and for changes made by legislatures rather than by administrative agencies. Moreover, this study reveals policy diffusion based on political, demographic, and budgetary similarities across states, rather than simply geographic proximity.     

Index

Authors Index

Index     

Interviewing Preschoolers: Comparisons Of Yes/No and Wh- Questions

This study investigated the influence of question format on preschool-aged children's errors, their response accuracy, and their tendency to say I don't know when given non-misleading questions in a neutral, unbiased context. Children (3 to 5 years old) participated in a craft-making session that included a staged accident with two experimenters differing in gender and appearance; the environment also had several distinctive features. One week later children were interviewed about actions, participants, and environment; questions were yes/no format with the veridical response yes (yes questions), yes/no format with the veridical response no (no questions), and specific wh- format questions. Question format substantially influenced children's responses: they were most likely to make errors if asked no questions, and were unlikely to answer either yes/no question with I don't know. In contrast, children spontaneously and frequently said I don't know to wh- questions about content they did not recall (environment), but not about content that was well recalled (actions). Implications of question format for reliability of eyewitness testimony by preschoolers are discussed.     

A Longitudinal Study of the Interactive Effects of Impulsivity and Anger on Adolescent Problem Behavior

The current study examined the moderating effect of impulsivity on the relation between anger and adolescent problem behavior (substance use and delinquency). High levels of anger were associated with delinquency for impulsive, but not for nonimpulsive adolescents in cross-sectional analyses. This moderating effect was not supported for substance use. Gender-moderated links between temperament and problem behavior showed that anger predicted substance use for females only, and impulsivity was more strongly associated with delinquency for males. In prospective analyses, both anger and impulsivity predicted adolescent problem behavior, but impulsivity did not moderate the effects of anger. Overall, results provided partial support for the notion that temperament dimensions operate interactively to promote poor adjustment.     

An analysis of the effects of gender on outcome in group treatment with young adolescents

This study investigated the ways in which the gender of group leader and client might affect treatment outcome with young adolescents. Seventh- and eighth-grade students were involved in programs for enhancing social competence. Mixed-sex groups of adolescents received treatment from either male or female group leaders. Results revealed gender differences between the male and female adolescents on the outcome measures, no difference on outcome due to leader gender, and one interaction effect on a measure of social skills between adolescent gender and group leader gender. Acquisition of social skills, which takes place through modeling and observation, may be influenced by matched gender between leaders and adolescents; however, other competencies and abilities do not appear sensitive to leader and adolescent gender.He received his Ph.D. at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. His major interests include developing and evaluating interventions for adolescents, social skills training, and practice evaluation for social workers.