Fertility and migration in the heart of the industrial revolution.

This study examines demographic growth and change in Tilleur in the valley of Meuse in Belgium during 1807-80 during the process of industrialization and urbanization. The proportion of immigrants (foreigners and Flemings) increased from 15% in 1807 to 65% in 1856. After 1856, population and industrial growth stabilized. During 1856-66 the proportion of natives stabilized, and the proportion of Flemings increased. It is argued that in Tilleur there were two phases: a foundation phase of industrial and population growth and a phase of maturation with decreased non-native population and greater similarity between groups. Immigrants contributed to the birth rate in greater proportions than their proportion in the population of Tilleur. During 1847-66 native population increased annually from 2.4% to 3.8%. Migrants' annual increases were diminished by the effects of mortality but expanded by the influence of in-migration. During 1857-66 the proportion of foreigners declined and marked the transition to a new phase. During 1830-66 the sex ratio grew from 93 to 119. During the Industrial Revolution in Tilleur, women shifted from outnumbering to undernumbering men. The iron and coal in the region attracted men. The sex ratio among the Flemish was 214 in 1866. In 1830 the proportion of fertile women was higher among immigrants and declined thereafter. Age at marriage rose for natives and declined for immigrants. The native population structure by sex, age, and marriage did not favor the birth rate. During 1866-80 the birth rate of foreign immigrants and rural natives declined, the birth rate of natives doubled, and the gap between these two groups narrowed. The changes among immigrants during the foundation phase led to fertility decline in the maturation phase. Marriage and migration interactions linked the industrial revolution with the demographic transition.     

Regime transformation from below: Decentralization,local governance,and democratic reform in Nigeria

How realistic are democratic-governance strategies that emphasize local governance as a key component? Using Nigeria’s experience in local government and primary health care in the 1980s and 1990s as a case example, the article finds there were substantial shortfalls in local participation and program performance. These were caused by problems in the local political environment and local institutional design, in the national policy environment (particularly in the funding system), and by the stresses of structural adjustment, resource shortfalls, the natural physical environment, and weak leadership. These combined to create poor and inappropriate reward structures and lack of accountability. However, even though the Nigerian case was not successful, most of the specific problems that hurt it are remediable through policy changes at the national level. Several of these were under consideration at the time of the coups of 1992 and 1993.     

The effect of authority and social influence on eyewitness suggestibility and person recognition

This study investigated the influence of an authority figure on eyewitness identification. Participants watched a staged crime and then were administered a photo lineup by either an authority (policeman) or non-authority figure (civilian). Participants in the authority condition were more likely to choose a lineup member than those in the non-authority condition. There was no effect of authority, however, on the accuracy of the identification decisions. The lack of a deleterious effect suggests that the presence of a police officer during identification procedures does not create an unduly suggestive situation or have undesirable effects on eyewitness identification decisions. Although witnesses' choosing behaviors did not increase the rate of identification errors, the effect of the administrator's authority on choosing was reduced when unbiased instructions (vs. biased instructions) were presented to the witnesses. Thus, support was found for the use of neutral instructions during eyewitness identification procedures.     

A DECADE OF DIVORCE MEDIATION RESEARCH

A decade of divorce mediation research has focused on outcomes such as settlement rates, cost efficiency, client satisfaction, effect on levels of conflict and cooperation, psychological adjustment, and compliance. Despite methodological problems limiting generalizations, most studies report mildly favorable to very positive findings. Research on the mediation process and mediator behaviors has received very limited attention, and should be the focus of the next decade of research to elevate the mediation field to a more sophisticated, effective level of practice.     

Social justice as a Holy Grail: The endless quest

This paper gives the author's impressions on the following aspects of justice: desert, equity, equality, need, and intergenerational equity. The author concludes that these different aspects cannot be reconciled but instead must be compromised. An example of such a compromise is provided by a discussion of welfare reform. The author claims that rights are correlative with duties, and that asserting the former has little meaning without specifying the latter. He then discusses justice toward groups rather than individuals. He proposes that maintaining cultural variety in the presence of a homogeneous superculture is a major problem of the contemporary world. The paper concludes with a discussion of various forms of power, particularly the integrative power that people acquire over each other by virtue of ties of loyalty and identity.     

Private sector shrinkage and the growth of industrialized economies: Reply

Further tests and thoughts on the OECD data lead me to conclude that, if anything, my 1986 paper underestimated the magnitude of the inverse relation between economic growth and government size. If one takes the nominal-based measure of government scale, as advised by Saunders, the significance levels, coefficient magnitudes and goodness of fits improve over what I found with my initial investigation. I would suggest that Saunders reconsider his reluctance to believe that the size of the public sector is unrelated to economic growth in OECD countries over this time period.One additional thought appears relevant to the current policy debate concerning budget deficits and economic performance within the major industrialized economies. The empirical work displayed here and in my 1986 paper suggests serious problems associated with the various proposals urging governments to raise taxes and/or ease fiscal policy. Elsewhere, I have suggested that available empirical evidence implies that plans to increase taxes as a way out of budget deficits are plans that carry the potential for raising government spending and possibly future deficits as well. Coupled with the evidence presented here, we should also recognize the potential of tax increases to raise the level of government participation in a country and, accordingly, exert inverse influences on its future economic performance as well. As suggested in my 1986 paper, the empirical evidence may suggest the following irony: While political participants may crave larger and larger non-market resource allocations, their future ability to satisfy that craving may very well be severely constrained by the satisfaction of that same appetite.