Disposable income,unemployment, inflation and state spending in a dynamic political-economic model

This paper formulates a medium-term macroeconomic model of disposable income, unemployment, inflation and state spending, proposes a theory of qualitative choice to explain electoral popularity in terms of these variables and develops three approaches to the formulation of political-economic policy. The first approach is static, sets the tax rate to reconcile the interests of various pressure groups and yields a political trade-off between the private and public sector. The second approach relies on maximizing the probability of winning the next election and gives rise to a political business cycle unless the electorate votes strategically. The implications of crowding out of private investment under alternative monetary rules, autonomous behaviour of the state bureaucracy and tax-indexation for the political business cycle are also examined. The third approach analyzes the objective of maximizing the uninterrupted length in office. It yields a short-run political cycle superimposed on a longer cycle.     

Whose wants in ‘needs-based planning’? Some examples of unwritten agendas from the provincial integrated rural development programmes of Papua New Guinea

The rhetoric of ‘needs’-based planning requires little refining. What must be questioned and recognized are the values of decision makers and the unwritten agendas of those involved in the planning process. Taking the example of some of the integrated rural development programmes (IRDPs) in Papua New Guinea, this paper looks at the way planners and others cast development and information ‘nets’. These nets abrogate indigenous development processes. The ‘nets’ make it easy for development professionals and others involved in planning to follow unwritten agendas and difficult for target groups to articulate their ‘needs’ and to understand what is going on. It is suggested that these problems are not unique to PNG and may well be relevant to ‘needs based planning’ in other situations.     

Preparing members of congress to make binary decisions on complex policy issues: The 1986 tax reform bill

Throughout 1985 and 1986, the House Committee on Ways and Means undertook a major revision of the federal income tax law. The product was the landmark Tax Reform Act of 1986. Because of the magnitude of the changes contained in this bill, the committee sought new ways of obtaining and disseminating necessary information. This article discusses the congressional policy-making process, the different kinds of information used in congressional decision making, and some new procedures employed by the committee during House action on the 1986 tax reform legislation.     

Classwork and homework in early adolescence: The ecology of achievement

Recent studies have questioned whether the nation's educational system is adequately preparing children to function productively in today's society. To examine this issue, the present study utilized the Experience Sampling Method to investigate the amount of time young adolescents spent doing classwork and homework, their inner subjective experience while doing so, and their companions while doing homework. The relationship between these variables and students' academic performance was also examined. Results revealed that students spent only 15.5 hours per week engaged in school work and only 6 hours per week doing homework, with increased homework time associated with better academic achievement. In addition, students were found to complete homework primarily alone or in classes, although doing homework with their parents was associated with better academic performance. Lastly, students' affect was found to be relatively neutral when doing classwork, but comparatively more negative while doing homework, particularly when doing homework alone. The implications of these findings for understanding the socializing influence of school are discussed.This research was supported by NIMH grant number MH38324, Stress in Daily Life During Early Adolescence, awarded to Reed Larson. This paper was prepared while the first author was a Schmitt Dissertation Fellow at Loyola University of Chicago.Received her Ph.D. from Loyola University of Chicago, Current Research interest are familial and intrapsychic influences on adolescents' academic performance.Current Research interests are pubertal development, precursors of eating disorders, and the effect of maternal employment on young adolescents.     

Predicting future smoking of adolescent experimental smokers

This prospective study examined the usefulness of seven selected variables from Jessor and Jessor's problem behavior theory in predicting the future smoking levels of adolescent experimental smokers. Experimental smokers were identified through a survey of 2,550 seventh- and eighth-grade students assessing subjects' current smoking levels as well as subjects' responses to the selected variables. Twelve months later the entire sample was resurveyed to assess subsequent smoking levels of subjects initially reporting experimental smoking. Experimental smokers who responded to both surveys (n=225) were subjects of the present study. The full model discriminant function was significant in discriminating between the two groups; 68% of the subjects were correctly classified. This moderately successful hit rate was 24% better than what could be expected by chance. Increased smokers had lower expectations for academic achievement, had stronger beliefs about the positive functions of smoking, and perceived more smoking among their classmates and close friends. Educational interventions are suggested.Received Ph.D. from the University of Nebraska in 1987. Research interests include human behavior change strategies.Received Ph.D. from University of Illinois in 1968. Research interests include behavior and health.