Risk factors for stalking violence,persistence, and recurrence

This study used a retrospective design to investigate risk factors associated with violence during a stalking episode, persistence (increased duration of stalking) and recurrence (multiple subsequent separate stalking episodes) in 157 people (91% male, mean age 35 years) with an established history of stalking behaviour. Results showed that diverse risk factors are associated with different types of stalking outcomes. Consistent with previous research, stalking violence was more likely to occur when the victim was an ex-intimate, when explicit threats had been made and where there had been previous property damage (AUC = .74). Personality disorder, older age, criminal versatility, a prior acquaintanceship and erotomanic delusions (AUC = .75) predicted stalking recurrence. Finally, previous acquaintanceship, the presence of delusional beliefs and the absence of a history of physical or sexual violence were associated with stalking persistence. These results clearly show that effective assessment and management of stalking requires consideration of different stalking outcomes and the diversity of associated risk factors.     

Long-Term Capital Management and the sociology of arbitrage

Arbitrage is a key process in the practice of financial markets and in their theoretical depiction: it allows markets to be posited as efficient without all investors being assumed to be rational. This article explores the sociology of arbitrage by means of an examination of the arbitrageurs, Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). LTCM's 1998 crisis is analysed using both qualitative, interview-based data and quantitative examination of price movements. It is suggested that the roots of the crisis lay in an unstable pattern of imitation that had developed in the markets within which LTCM operated. As the resulting 'superportfolio' began to unravel, arbitrageurs other than LTCM fled the market, even as arbitrage opportunities became more attractive, causing huge price movements against LTCM. Three features of the sociology of arbitrage are discussed: its conduct by people often personally known to each other; the possibility and consequences of imitation; and the limits on the capacity of arbitrage to close price discrepancies. It is suggested that by 1998 imitative arbitrage formed a 'global microstructure' in the sense of Knorr Cetina and Bruegger.