Identifying Three Types of Violent Offenders and Predicting Violent Recidivism While on Probation: A Classification Tree Analysis

This study employs classification tree analysis (CTA) to address whether 3 groups of violent offenders have similar or different risk factors for violent recidivism while on probation. A sample of 1344 violent offenders on probation was classified as generalized aggressors (N = 302), family only aggressors (N = 321), or nonfamily only aggressors (N = 717). The strongest predictor of violent recidivism while on probation was whether the offender was a generalized aggressor or not, with generalized aggressors more likely to be arrested for new violent crimes. Prior arrests for violent crimes predicted violent recidivism of generalized aggressors, but did not significantly predict violent recidivism of family only and nonfamily only aggressors. For generalized aggressors and family only batterers, treatment noncompliance was an important risk predictor of violent recidivism. CTA compared to logistic regression classified a higher percentage of cases into low-risk and high-risk groups, provided higher improvement in classification accuracy of violent recidivists beyond chance performance, and provided a better balance of false positives and false negatives. The implications for the risk assessment and domestic violence literature are discussed.     

Myanmar in EU–ASEAN relations

The aim of this paper is to discuss and examine the regional projects of institutionalism in Europe and Southeast Asia. The main focus is on Myanmar, a regional ‘outcast’ whose membership in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 1997 has helped it to gain international legitimacy and be able to stand relatively strong against Western sanctions. The military regime is riding on the wave of ASEAN norms and a communitarian culture. The question remains as to how long the country can continue to do so. A rather skeptical view is emphasized on the ‘ASEAN Way’ in dealing with the military regime, and for the overall political dialogue with the European Union. Many ambitious objectives such as sovereign equality in institutionalism are widely questioned, and the European Union has gone against many of its treaties in order to keep its relationship with Southeast Asia. The paper puts prominence on the political and security relationship rather than on the economic aspect, which has been far more successful. The role of values and the human rights debate will be highlighted and described as the greatest obstacle for any future political cooperation.

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The Medicare Cost Report and the limits of hospital accountability: improving financial accounting data

Health policy makers, legislators, providers, payers, and a broad range of other players in the health care market routinely seek information on hospital financial performance. Yet the data at their disposal are limited, especially since hospitals' audited financial statements--the "gold standard" in hospital financial reporting--are not publicly available in many states. As a result, the Medicare Cost Report (MCR), filed annually by most U.S. hospitals in order to receive payment for treating Medicare patients, has become the primary public source of hospital financial information. However, financial accounting elements in the MCR are unreliable, poorly defined, and lacking in critical detail. Comparative analyses of MCRs and matched, audited financial statements reveal long-standing problems with the MCR's data, including major differences in reported profits; variations in the reporting of both revenues and expenses; an absence of relevant details, such as charity care, bad debt, operating versus nonoperating income, and affiliate transactions; an inconsistent classification of changes in net assets; and a failure to provide cash flow statements. Because of these problems, MCR financial data give only a limited and often inaccurate picture of the financial position of hospitals. Audited financial statements provide a more complete perspective, enabling analysts to address important questions left unanswered by the MCR data. Regulatory action is needed to create a national database of financial information based upon audited statements.     

Social Constructionism and Criminology: Traditions,Problems and Possibilities

Over the last twenty years, the prison system, border controls, crime prevention programmes, anti‐terror measures and private security companies have expanded within Europe. This article discusses some of the implications. It will be argued that we are witnessing a paradigmatic shift in the manner in which state‐sanctioned force is employed. The distinction between what is criminal, to be dealt with by the justice system, and what creates a ‘perception of security’—formerly to be dealt with by social policy—is being eroded at both macro‐ (‘war on terror’) and micro‐ (‘public order’) levels. The rule of law is giving way to a security mentality, where force is employed on the basis of risk assessments. Social problems are re‐interpreted as security threats, and met with measures recreating the original threats. This gives the policy field a distinctive rationality of its own.