Explaining the Awakening: Engagement,Publicity, and the Transformation of Iraqi Sunni Political Attitudes

This article explores the reasons for the dramatic change in Sunni Arab Iraqi attitudes toward the United States from 2004 to 2007, which made possible the “Awakenings,” local groups of mostly Sunni tribes and former insurgents that decided to cooperate with the United States against al Qaeda in Iraq. While there have been many studies of the military strategy, there has been little attention paid to the reasons for the underlying attitude change. This article argues that the dramatic changes in the information environment and in the nature of direct contacts across a range of Sunni society played a crucial role. It draws on a wide range of Arabic language primary sources that have generally been neglected in U.S. military-centric accounts. No single dialogue flipped the Sunnis, and the change would not likely have happened without the material changes underpinning their interests. But years of ongoing, intensive dialogues across a wide range of interlocutors reshaped the foundations of the relationship and to convince those involved individuals of the possibility of a strategic shift. American counterinsurgency (COIN) doctrine and the surge helped by proliferating the points of contact with Iraqis and by transforming the relations at the individual level. This has broad implications for key debates in contemporary U.S. foreign policy, as well as for counterinsurgency and international relations (IR) theory.     

Arms Production in the Global Village: Options for Adapting to Defense-Industrial Globalization

Few issues are more important to international relations scholars than understanding how globalization is shaping the production of armaments. Within this context, this article examines both whether and how small and medium states can maintain defense-industrial bases capable of contributing to their national security. To preview the conclusion, although defense-industrial self-sufficiency has become an illusion for most states, even small and medium states can develop defense-industrial capabilities that enhance both their ability to autonomously employ their armed forces and secure access to foreign armaments. Moreover, governments possess a range of options for achieving these objectives, including a fundamental choice between accepting foreign direct investment and pursuing unrestrained arms exports. Governments unwilling to sanction foreign ownership of their defense industries can have recourse to unrestricted exports; alternatively, states uncomfortable with liberal exports can encourage foreign direct investment. With this in mind, a lasting diversity is likely to persist in even similarly endowed states’ defense industries and defense-industrial policies.     

Measuring the subjective perceptions of risks and rewards of Chinese juvenile thieves

Offenders’ readiness to engage in changes that will reduce their risk of reoffending is now recognized to be as important as the design and delivery of programmes that support such change. Interest is growing in both how to increase engagement in change processes, and how to measure any improvements in engagement. This study evaluated the effects of a brief offending-focused motivational interviewing (MI) intervention on reconviction in male prisoners serving sentences for diverse crimes. Men who undertook MI were significantly less likely to be reconvicted than those who did not. The results also served to validate a stage-based measure of readiness to change derived from Prochaska and DiClemente's Transtheoretical Model. Prisoners who were offered MI increased their readiness to change by an average of one stage, while the scores of men who were not remained unchanged. Furthermore – whether men undertook MI or not – change in stage of change predicted reconviction. This was a high-risk sample, making the results intriguing for at least two reasons. First, reductions in recidivism are usually achieved only with much more intensive programmes for high-risk men. Second, according to ‘traditional’ cognitive–behavioural rehabilitation theory, programmes need to target change in dynamic risk factors directly to reduce reconviction risk. That these results were obtained with men whose initial motivation was low, and in the absence of any ‘traditional’ criminogenic rehabilitation, raises questions about whether there is more than one mechanism involved in desistance.     

On the Causes and Consequences of Ballot Order Effects

We investigate the effect of ballot order on the outcomes of California city council and school board elections. Candidates listed first win office between four and five percentage points more often than expected absent order effects. This first candidate advantage is larger in races with more candidates and for higher quality candidates. The first candidate advantage is similar across contexts: the magnitude of the effect is not statistically distinguishable in city council and in school board elections, in races with and without an open seat, and in races consolidated and not consolidated with statewide general elections. Standard satisficing models cannot fully explain ballot order effects in our dataset of multi-winner elections.     

The Cold War culture of the French and communist parties

This study is a comparative essay about the ‘Cold War culture’ of the two main communist parties of Western Europe, the French and the Italian, during the tense period of 1947–53. Both parties had a common Marxist ideology and used similar elements of propaganda: anti-imperialism, anti-capitalism, defence of ‘national independence’, defence of the Soviet Union, and the struggle for peace. However, while the French communist ideology was completely focused on the Soviet position, the Italians tried to maintain a limited autonomy for their parliamentary activity and their reactions to national issues. The reception and use of communist ideology and propaganda by some social categories of population, especially among the working classes, is then examined. The essay concludes with a reflexion on the notion of the ‘culture of war’ in France and Italy.     

Loan delinquency in community lending organizations: Case studies of neighborworks organizations

Abstract

This article reports on qualitative data gathered through interviews conducted in 1996 with key leadership and staff from 13 community lending organizations. Loan servicing and collection procedures within the organizations were examined. Findings suggest that several organizational factors of nonprofit lenders are related to their loan delinquency rates: social networks, business culture, funding sources, composition of the board and loan committees, staff structure, loan intake, and collection tools.

The study also finds that the nonprofit sector's institutional environment and its partnership with the private sector in a mutually beneficial process influence the loan delinquency rate. More specifically, active participation of local bankers in NeighborWorks¹ loan committees, diverse funding sources (from both the public and private sectors), and a diffusion of business practices through dense social networks are related to NeighborWorks’ loan servicing and collection policy and procedures. These factors in turn influence NeighborWorks’ rehabilitation loan delinquency rates.     

The 2009 Elections in Schleswig-Holstein: Polarised Electoral Campaign,Exceptional Election Results,and an Unspectacular Process of Government Formation

The elections for the Schleswig-Holstein Landtag were held on 27 September 2009. After conflicts between the governing parties the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD), Prime Minister Carstensen had ended the ‘grand coalition’ and called for early elections, one year earlier than scheduled. The electoral campaign centred on the divide between the Christian Democrats who favoured a coalition with the Liberals, and the Social Democrats who competed for a majority together with the Greens. The elections resulted in large shifts in party strength. Christian and Social Democrats together lost about 22 percentage points of votes, while most of the smaller parliamentary parties attained their best election results in Schleswig-Holstein state elections ever. CDU and FDP gained a majority of seats and formed a coalition that re-elected Carstensen into office on 27 October. Using concepts from coalition theory, our analysis shows that a Christian–Liberal coalition was indeed the most likely outcome of the government formation process.     

Extension des privilèges constitutionnels de la Douma russe dans les ‘interstices de la procédure’ 1906–1917

Summary

The nobility and the Netherlands Senate 1815–1830

From 1815 to 1830 the northern and southern Netherlands formed a single kingdom under Guillaume I. In this kingdom the nobility was the only social order to enjoy special political rights. The political influence the nobility could exercise as an order was primarily at the provincial level. The Corps Equestres had a role as a sort of electoral college for the Provincial Estates of the separate provinces. In 1815, after the States General had been divided into two chambers, the influence of the provinces made itself felt particularly through the elections for the Second Chamber, the members of the First Chamber, the Senate, being appointed by the king. Despite the fact that over ninety percent of them belonged to the nobility, the nobility as an order never became a political group exercising power at the national level.