How Aspiration to Office Conditions the Impact of Government Participation on Party Platform Change

Considerable ambiguity exists regarding the effect of government/opposition status on party platform change. Existing theories predict that (1) it has no effect, (2) opposition parties change more, (3) opposition parties change more after several spells in opposition, and (4) parties’ responses vary because of different goal orientations. We propose that a party's aspiration to office, measured by its historical success or failure in entering office, determines a party's reaction to being in opposition or government. We hypothesize that, because of loss aversion, parties with low office aspiration change more when they are in government than when they are in opposition. Conversely, parties with high office aspiration change more as opposition party than as government party. We find evidence for these hypotheses through a pooled time‐series cross‐sectional analysis of 1,686 platform changes in 21 democracies, using the Comparative Manifesto Data and an innovative measure of party platform change.     

Deterrence and delinquency: An analysis of individual data

Is commission of crime deterred by fear of arrest? Individual self-reported data on the commission of three crimes are analyzed in relation to perceived probabilities of arrest for more than 3000 French-speaking teenagers of the Montreal school population in 1974. The crimes are shoplifting, drug use, and stealing an item worth more than $50.00. In addition to the effect of the individuals' perceptions of the probability of arrest for the three crimes, age, sex, and previous arrest record are also taken into account. The data are all categorical. A multivariate log-linear probability model is estimated in order to test hypotheses concerning the direction and magnitude of bivariate associations among the variables. We conclude that there is clear evidence of a negative association between the subjective probability of arrest for each crime and the frequency of commission of that crime. We also find some negative cross-effects of the perceptions of the probability of arrest for one type of crime on the commission of another, holding constant the direct effects.     

A cocaine body packer with normal abdominal plain radiograms. Value of drug detection in urine and contrast study of the bowel

Drug packets are usually detected by ordinary abdominal radiographs, which is of major importance in the apprehension and prosecution of drug body packers, but false negatives may occur. We report the case of a cocaine body packer who had used the prograde route and in whom the initial abdominal plain films were normal. The diagnosis of cocaine body packing was assessed by seldom-described complementary methods of detection, including drug detection in the urine and contrast study of the bowel.     

An Analysis of Presidential Preferences in the Distribution of Empowerment Zones and Enterprise Communities

Critics regarded the selection of urban empowerment zones and enterprise communities by Secretary Cisneros in 1994 as sympathetic to President Clinton's considerations. However, the secretary countered that cities were chosen based on their ability to revitalize their communities successfully, as outlined in their applications. To determine whether the secretary responded to top-down presidential preferences, data from the complete list of applications is used to test four hypotheses derived from principal—agent theory. The results of the logistic regression models do not validate the significance of the presidential variables (for instance, presidential support score for each city's congressional delegation, marginal districts, and 1992 state vote for President Clinton). Rather, many of the nonpresidential variables (community participation, size of the empowerment zone or enterprise community, and poverty) were significant in supporting the secretary's contention.