The Unequal Distribution of Speaking Time in Parliamentary‐Party Groups

Parliamentary debates provide an arena where Members of Parliament (MPs) present, challenge, or defend public policies. However, the “plenary bottleneck” allows the party leadership to decide who participates in a debate. We argue that in this decision the timing of a debate matters: in proximity of elections, the leadership should be concerned with maintaining its brand name and therefore restrict floor access, in particular if the debate is salient for the respective party. We evaluate our hypotheses in a cross‐country study drawing on a novel data set covering all speeches given during one or two legislative terms in six European parliaments. We find that the electoral cycle matters for the distribution of speaking time: Party leaders do restrict parliamentary speechmaking to a smaller number of MPs at the end of the term. This has important implications for our understanding of parliaments as an electoral arena and for our understanding of intraparty politics.     

Unusual sources of Sn in GSR. An experimental study by SEM and IBA

Gunshot Residue (GSR) produced by the discharge of a firearm often provides very useful information in criminal investigations in cases involving the use of firearms. Scanning Electron Microscopy equipped with an Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectrometer (SEM-EDS) is typically used worldwide to visualize micrometric particles constituting GSR and to analyse their elemental composition. The 2017 ASTM Standard guide for gunshot residue analysis by scanning electron microscopy/energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy specifies that “Particles classified as characteristic of GSR will have one of the following elemental compositions: Lead, antimony, barium; Lead, barium, calcium, silicon, tin”. For the first time, the presence of an additional element, such as Sn, plays a key role in ASTM particle classification. It is known that some ammunitions, used for pistols, revolvers and rifles, contain tin foil discs for sealing the primer mixture into the cup, resulting in GSR particles containing Sn. The authors faced some cases in which Sn was unexpectedly found in GSR particles from a 0.22 Long Rifle derringer and from some 12 gauge shotguns. No tin foil discs are used in rimfire ammunitions and there is no published evidence of tin foil discs in shotshell ammunitions. Following a “case by case” approach, experimental research has been carried out to explain how Sn can be present in GSR particles when the last discharged cartridge also does not contain any Sn either in components and in the explosive charges.Moreover, the use of Particle Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE) showed the capability to overcome overlap ambiguity of Sb and Sn peaks in the X-ray spectra, being a possible key issue in real shooting cases if Sn quantities are below the lower limit of SEM detection, especially when Sb is also present.     

Countries start to explain how their climate contributions are fair: more rigour needed

In the lead-up to the Paris Agreement, every country was invited to submit an intended nationally determined contribution (INDC), and indicate how it is fair. We analyse how countries have explained the equity of mitigation and adaptation in 163 INDCs, providing a bottom-up analysis of equity to complement a literature that has focused on top-down allocations. While no single indicator of equity was used by all INDCs, a menu of quantified indicators or tiered approaches could provide bounded flexibility across different national circumstances. The most common equity indicator used in mitigation INDCs is the country’s ‘small share’ of global emissions, followed by per capita emissions. The emissions of individual ‘small share’ INDCs add up to 24% of annual global emissions when using a consistent data set. Per capita emissions are used across a range of countries with low (0.5) to high (25 t CO₂–eq per capita) values for that indicator. Adaptation is included in 89% of INDCs, of which more than half quantify impacts in some manner, and two-thirds use vulnerability as an equity argument. Broadly, we find that most claims to equity are either unsubstantiated or drawn from analysis by in-country experts. Only two INDCs refer to independent evidence, and none consider the consequences of their approach when applied to all countries. Given that the aggregate effect of INDCs will not be sufficient to keep global temperature increase well below 2 °C, and even less to keep temperature below a 1.5 °C rise, the INDCs have distributional implications. More rigorous information is needed to assess relative fair shares, which could be provided officially in future nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Absent improved information, it is likely that researchers and civil society will continue to assess informally what could be considered fair. A hybrid approach to equity—combining bottom-up assessment and top-down allocation—would be consistent with the hybrid architecture of the Paris Agreement, which comprises bottom-up elements such as NDCs and top-down elements such as global goals. Improved information on equity in NDCs will be an important input to the global stocktake ‘in the light of equity’.     

Munchausen by Proxy: A Qualitative Investigation into Online Perceptions of Medical Child Abuse

In Munchausen by proxy (MBP) maltreatment, increasingly termed “medical child abuse” (MCA), a caregiver fabricates or induces illness in another. The perpetrator's goal for the behavior is to meet personal emotional needs by forcing unnecessary or misguided medical or psychological treatment. Generally, a mother is the perpetrator and her child is the victim. There is a serious lack of research into most aspects of MCA, and this study is the first to utilize the anonymity of an Internet forum to investigate victims' first‐hand experiences of, and the public's opinions about, suspected and confirmed MCA. Three‐hundred and fifty‐six posts by 348 members were explored and coded using formal qualitative content analysis. By accessing an open‐thought online forum, this paper acquired information regarding social perceptions about the nonperpetrating partners who are unaware of the maltreatment; the disturbing and counterintuitive phenomenon of MCA itself; and the resistance often faced by those who attempt to report it.     

Cyberbullying Among Chilean Students and the Protective Effects of Positive School Communities

Cyberbullying is a type of bullying that involves the use of technology to harm other students. Most researchers have examined individual-level characteristics, but the perception of school climate and school characteristics such as type, size, and level of vulnerabilities have not been considered using multilevel methods. Using a sample of 8,237 Chilean seventh graders from 1,322 schools we examined individual- and school-level predictors of cyberbullying perpetration. Cyberbullying perpetration was predicted by prior victimization, interpersonal relationships, and gender. We found an interaction effect between interpersonal relationships and teacher support for victims. Our findings support the notion that school policies and culture can play a vital role in the prevention of cyberbullying, supporting a protective resilience model.     

巴西--发展中大国及其国际战略

这是本刊增设的一个栏目。顾名思义,“大使论坛”就是大使们的论坛。它是由中国社会科学院国际合作局与社科院其他研究所主办的一个论坛,而2005年8月18日由中国社会科学院国合作局和拉美所主办的“巴西的大国地位与大国战略”是首届大使论坛。在首届大使论坛上,巴西驻中国大使路易斯·奥古斯托·德卡斯特罗·内维斯先生作了题为《巴西———发展中大国及其国际战略》的报告并回答了与会者提出的问题。     

Alignment Patterns, Crisis Bargaining, and Extended Deterrence: A Game-Theoretic Analysis

To explore the impact of alignment patterns in a rudimentary state system, we develop and analyze the Tripartite Crisis Game, a three-person game among Challenger, Defender, and Protégé. This model captures some of the tensions implicit in the "Alliance" and "Adversary" games, two related but theoretically isolated models due to Snyder. Our analysis enables us to delineate and explore the circumstances that give rise to the "deterrence versus restraint" dilemma. It also provides an answer to Fearon's empirical puzzle: when convincing commitments are possible, why are halfhearted signals sometimes sent?
Our most surprising result concerns the impact of Protégé's threat on Challenger's optimal behavior. When Challenger is willing to fight to back up its demand, but is nonetheless only weakly or moderately motivated, Protégé's threat to realign—though directed at Defender— can dissuade Challenger from initiating a crisis. But when Challenger is willing to fight and stands to gain a great deal, Protégé's threat may actually prompt Challenger to make a demand. Our analysis uncovers this unexpected pattern of behavior and suggests when it occurs. That Protégé's threat to realign sometimes bolsters deterrence, and sometimes undermines it, has implications for the selection bias issue in studies of alliance reliability and helps to explain why some alliances are stabilizing while others are associated with crises and war. The nonlinear consequences of Protégé's commitment seem to us to constitute another "paradox of war."     

Suing Media for Libel: A Litigation Study

This article summarizes the results of a study of 291 reported cases brought against media for libel during a four-year period. The results confirmed the finding in an earlier study that only 5 percent of plaintiffs emerged from the appellate process with judgments compared with more than 60 percent of defendants. Most of the defense successes occurred without trial. In cases that did reach trial, plaintiffs were successful far more often before juries than before judges but lost more than half these judgments on appeal. Cases were analyzed in terms of the identity of the parties, the content of the charges, and the role of state and federal law in shaping the outcome. Despite the recent attention to federal constitutional protections, it is clear that media defendants still do, and must, rely heavily on state law defenses. Finally, the Hutchinson and Wolston rulings of 1979 produced little change in appellate decisions.     

Population genetics of eleven STR loci in the State of Sergipe, Northeastern Brazil

POPULATION: Over 259 unrelated individuals from the State of Sergipe (Northeastern Brazil).