Alignment Patterns, Crisis Bargaining, and Extended Deterrence: A Game-Theoretic Analysis

To explore the impact of alignment patterns in a rudimentary state system, we develop and analyze the Tripartite Crisis Game, a three-person game among Challenger, Defender, and Protégé. This model captures some of the tensions implicit in the "Alliance" and "Adversary" games, two related but theoretically isolated models due to Snyder. Our analysis enables us to delineate and explore the circumstances that give rise to the "deterrence versus restraint" dilemma. It also provides an answer to Fearon's empirical puzzle: when convincing commitments are possible, why are halfhearted signals sometimes sent?
Our most surprising result concerns the impact of Protégé's threat on Challenger's optimal behavior. When Challenger is willing to fight to back up its demand, but is nonetheless only weakly or moderately motivated, Protégé's threat to realign—though directed at Defender— can dissuade Challenger from initiating a crisis. But when Challenger is willing to fight and stands to gain a great deal, Protégé's threat may actually prompt Challenger to make a demand. Our analysis uncovers this unexpected pattern of behavior and suggests when it occurs. That Protégé's threat to realign sometimes bolsters deterrence, and sometimes undermines it, has implications for the selection bias issue in studies of alliance reliability and helps to explain why some alliances are stabilizing while others are associated with crises and war. The nonlinear consequences of Protégé's commitment seem to us to constitute another "paradox of war."     

Suing Media for Libel: A Litigation Study

This article summarizes the results of a study of 291 reported cases brought against media for libel during a four-year period. The results confirmed the finding in an earlier study that only 5 percent of plaintiffs emerged from the appellate process with judgments compared with more than 60 percent of defendants. Most of the defense successes occurred without trial. In cases that did reach trial, plaintiffs were successful far more often before juries than before judges but lost more than half these judgments on appeal. Cases were analyzed in terms of the identity of the parties, the content of the charges, and the role of state and federal law in shaping the outcome. Despite the recent attention to federal constitutional protections, it is clear that media defendants still do, and must, rely heavily on state law defenses. Finally, the Hutchinson and Wolston rulings of 1979 produced little change in appellate decisions.     

Population genetics of eleven STR loci in the State of Sergipe, Northeastern Brazil

POPULATION: Over 259 unrelated individuals from the State of Sergipe (Northeastern Brazil).     

An exploratory study of child molesters' relationship patterns using the core conflictual relationship theme method

This study examined the relationship patterns of N = 20 child molesters (CM) using the Core Conflictual Relationship Theme (CCRT) method. The relationship patterns of the CMs were compared with those of a control group of N = 20 subjects from an out patient counseling service. Results showed that CMs had significantly less wish to be controlled, hurt, and not responsible than the control group. No significant difference was found between both groups for the CCRT response of other component (RO). For the response of self (RS) component, results indicated that CMs reported more relationship episodes in which they felt respected and accepted and self-controlled and self-confident. The authors suggest that these interactions could be indicators of the CMs'attempts to attribute blame to others and present themselves as victims. It is also suggested that CMs may have core issues involving autonomy and control.     

Reforming International Environmental Governance: An Institutionalist Critique of the Proposal for a World Environment Organisation

This article argues that a World Environment Organisation (WEO) does not promise to enhance international environmental governance. First, we claim that the establishment of an international organisation alone in a policy field currently populated by regimes cannot be expected to significantly improve environmental governance because there is no qualitative difference between these two forms of governance institutions. Second, we submit that significant improvement of international environmental governance through institutional re-arrangement must rely on a modification of decision-making procedures and/or a change of institutional boundaries. Third, we develop three principal models of a possible WEO. A WEO formally providing an umbrella for existing regimes without modifying issue-areas and decision-making procedures would be largely irrelevant. A WEO integrating decision-making processes of existing regimes so as to form comprehensive world environment rounds of intergovernmental bargaining would be largely dysfunctional and prone to a host of negative side-effects. A supranational WEO including large-scale use of majority decision-making and far-reaching enforcement mechanisms across a range of environmental issues might considerably enhance international environmental governance, but it appears to be grossly utopian. In conclusion, a WEO cannot be at the same time realistic, significant and beneficial for international environmental governance. Available political resources should be invested in advancing existing and emerging sectoral environmental regimes rather than in establishing a WEO.     

Predictive Validity of the SVR-20 and Static-99 in a Dutch Sample of Treated Sex Offenders

In this retrospective study, the interrater reliability and predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sexual violence are presented. The SVR-20, an instrument for structured professional judgment, and the Static-99, an actuarial risk assessment instrument, were coded from file information of 122 sex offenders who were admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital between 1974 and 1996 (average follow-up period 140 months). Recidivism data (reconvictions) from the Ministry of Justice were related to the risk assessments. The base rate for sexual recidivism was 39%, for nonsexual violent offenses 46%, and for general offenses 74%. Predictive validity of the SVR-20 was good (total score: r = .50, AUC = .80; final risk judgment: r = .60, AUC = .83), of the Static-99 moderate (total score: r = .38, AUC =.71; risk category: r = .30, AUC = .66). The SVR-20 final risk judgment was a significantly better predictor of sexual recidivism than the Static-99 risk category.     

Simultaneous determination of thirteen beta-blockers and one metabolite by gradient high-performance liquid chromatography with photodiode-array UV detection

A new rapid and sensitive high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method has been developed for the simultaneous identification and quantification in human plasma of the 13 most commonly prescribed beta-blockers and one active metabolite-atenolol, sotalol, diacetolol, carteolol, nadolol, pindolol, acebutolol, metoprolol, celiprolol, oxprenolol, labetalol, propranolol, tertatolol and betaxolol. It involves liquid-liquid extraction procedures followed by liquid chromatography coupled to photodiode-array UV detection with a fixed wavelength at 220 nm for quantification. Compounds were separated on a 5 microm Hypurity C(18) (ThermoHypersil) analytical column (250 mm x 4.6 mm, i.d.) using a gradient of acetonitrile-phosphate buffer pH 3.8 at a flow rate of 1.0 ml/min. The total analysis time was 26 min per sample. Extraction recoveries were between 74 and 113% for the polar compounds and between 20 and 56% for the most apolar compounds. Calibration lines were linear in the range from 25 to 1000 ng/ml for all compounds excepted carteolol and nadolol (50-1000 ng/ml), all of them with coefficients of determination (r2 values) >/=0.994. Limits of detection (LODs) ranged from 5 to 10 ng/ml. Intra-assay and inter-assay precision and accuracy were studied at two concentration levels (100 and 500 ng/ml). The intra-assay coefficients of variation (CVs) for all compounds were 相似文献   

Forensic value of 14 novel STRs on the human Y chromosome

We identified and characterized 14 novel short-tandem-repeats (STRs) on the Y chromosome and typed them in two samples, a globally diverse panel of 73 cell lines, and 148 individuals from a European-American population. These Y-STRs include eight tetranucleotide repeats (DYS449, DYS453, DYS454, DYS455, DYS456, DYS458, DYS459, and DYS464), five pentanucleotide repeats (DYS446, DYS447, DYS450, DYS452, and DYS463), and one hexanucleotide repeat (DYS448). Sequence data were obtained to designate a repeat number nomenclature. The gene diversities of an additional 22 Y-STRs, including the most commonly used in forensic databases, were directly compared in the cell line DNAs. Six of the 10 most polymorphic markers include the newly identified Y-STRs. Furthermore, these novel Y-STRs greatly improved the resolution of paternal lineages, above the level obtained with commonly used Y-STRs, in the European-American population.