从利益攸关方到战略再保证:霸权衰落下的中美关系

近五年来,美国对华政策定位经历了从利益攸关方、中美国、G2到战略再保证的转变,也成为当前国际关系领域研究的热门话题。这种转变与美国霸权衰落紧密相连,是美国为了延续霸权,希望中国继续融入其霸权体系的手段之一。面对复杂多变的国际局势,战略选择成为中国当前必须慎之又慎的问题。历史证明,与霸权国的对抗没有出路,因此中国只能选择合作。机制化的双边协调对话必然是今后中美关系保持良性发展的趋势,也是中国努力的方向,但也必须时刻警惕美国对华战略中的陷阱。     

东亚区域的生产分工、产品需求结构与贸易模式转型

东亚区域生产分工经历了产业间、产业内和产品内三种分工形式以及雁行和生产网络两种分工模式的演进路径,并且影响着东亚区域内产品需求结构的变化。对外部最终产品市场的严重依赖是东亚区域产品需求结构的主要特征,东亚区域外需主导型的贸易模式亟待转型。中国在东亚贸易模式转型过程中将发挥重要的作用。     

后美国时代的权力结构变迁与国际制度改革——基于八国集团改革的理论思考

权力结构与制度变革的关系探讨历来是国际问题研究的核心之一。金融危机爆发后,国际权力结构进入一个后美国时代,权力的分散但非匀质化是其显著特征。本文认为,制度改革是权力结构变迁过程中的合理性诉求,结构的变迁会对原有制度框架内的支配国和受益者形成某种改革压力。另一方面,权力结构变迁的长期性决定了制度改革的继承性和包容性。从总体上看,世界权力关系的变迁将会导致国际规则的调整和完善,倾向于制度的不断演化而非完全替代。     

中印油气外交:“新大角逐”、“互利互赢”或“独立平行”

近年来,19世纪的口号"大角逐"在国际能源领域再次抬头。但是,西方学者往往选择少数案例来证明油价上升的主要原因是中国与印度的竞争,以及油田的买卖。本文通过对中印竞争、合作与独立购买案例的实证调研,认为双方的竞争与合作案例的数量不仅少,而且两类交易的数量相当,相比之下,平行独立的中印能源外交案例最多。中印两国能源公司都基本遵照市场规律与游戏规则,而且多数能源行动并不属于过时的份额油"大角逐"。     

Forensic microradiology: micro-computed tomography (Micro-CT) and analysis of patterned injuries inside of bone

When a knife is stabbed in bone, it leaves an impression in the bone. The characteristics (shape, size, etc.) may indicate the type of tool used to produce the patterned injury in bone. Until now it has been impossible in forensic sciences to document such damage precisely and non-destructively. Micro-computed tomography (Micro-CT) offers an opportunity to analyze patterned injuries of tool marks made in bone. Using high-resolution Micro-CT and computer software, detailed analysis of three-dimensional (3D) architecture has recently become feasible and allows microstructural 3D bone information to be collected. With adequate viewing software, data from 2D slice of an arbitrary plane can be extracted from 3D datasets. Using such software as a "digital virtual knife," the examiner can interactively section and analyze the 3D sample. Analysis of the bone injury revealed that Micro-CT provides an opportunity to correlate a bone injury to an injury-causing instrument. Even broken knife tips can be graphically and non-destructively assigned to a suspect weapon.     

Forensic anthropology and the most probable cause of death in cases of violations against international humanitarian law: an example from Bosnia and Herzegovina

This study presents the results of the analysis of at least 298 predominantly male individuals, between 15 and 75 years, who were recovered from an open cast mine in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Particular attention is paid to identifying the mechanisms of injury and determination of the most probable cause of death based on the assessment of lethal or lethal-if-untreated injuries recorded in the skeleton. It was calculated that at least 38.9% (155/398) of individuals sustained gunshot wounds (GSWs) (plus one shrapnel wound) and may have died as consequence of these injuries. Among individuals who died from GSWs, there were 142 males (91.60%), eight females (5.1%) and five cases that were (3.2%) undetermined. One male individual sustained shrapnel injuries. This study presents an example of the multidisciplinary approach to the effective forensic investigation of violation against International Humanitarian Law, as well as an example of how it is possible to obtain meaningful results to assist the needs of the prosecution in these kind of cases despite the large number of cases and technological constraints.