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41.
Developmental taxonomies of crime disagree on whether distinctive offender trajectories are related to common or unique risks. This study examined childhood risks of differing arrest trajectories across childhood through early adulthood (from ages 10–11 to 26–27 years) that were identified in prior work for 203 at-risk, predominantly Caucasian young men. Multivariate analyses revealed that when both distal (childhood risk factors) and proximal risk factors (deviant peer association as a time-varying covariate) were included in the model, relatively few childhood risk factors (assessed at age 9–10 years) discriminated the chronic offender groups from rare offenders (i.e., child antisocial behavior, child attention problems, parents’ antisocial behavior). Rather, deviant peer association was significantly related to levels of offending within each trajectory group (i.e., chronic and rare offender groups). No predictor differentially predicted membership in the two chronic groups, supporting the linear gradation argument. Theoretical and prevention implications are discussed.  相似文献   
42.
Beliefs and Voting Decisions: A Test of the Pivotal Voter Model   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
We report results from a laboratory experiment testing the basic hypothesis embedded in various rational voter models that there is a direct correlation between the strength of an individual's belief that his or her vote will be pivotal and the likelihood that individual incurs the cost to vote. This belief is typically unobservable. In one of our experimental treatments we elicit these subjective beliefs using a proper scoring rule that induces truthful revelation of beliefs. This allows us to directly test the pivotal voter model. We find that a higher subjective probability of being pivotal increases the likelihood that an individual votes, but the probability thresholds used by subjects are not as crisp as the theory would predict. There is some evidence that individuals learn over time to adjust their beliefs to be more consistent with the historical frequency of pivotality. However, many subjects keep substantially overestimating their probability of being pivotal.  相似文献   
43.
Using data from a community sample of 1218 boys and girls (mean age at the first wave was 15.5 years), this longitudinal study examined several covariates—adjustment problems, poor academic achievement, negative life events, and unsupportive family environments—of distinctive trajectories of juvenile delinquency. Latent growth mixture modeling analysis revealed 6 trajectory groups: rare offenders, moderate late peakers, high late peakers, decreasers, moderate-level chronics, and high-level chronics. Several factors discriminated between more normative groups and high-level chronic offenders, including poor academic achievement, unsupportive family environments, life events, and substance use, whereas almost no differences were found between groups with more serious offending trajectories. Overall, there was more specificity in correlates of distinctive offending trajectories than expected by general theories of crime (e.g., Gottfredson, M. R., and Hirschi, T., 1990, A General Theory of Crime. Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA).  相似文献   
44.
This article investigates the electoral effect of party policy shifts. I argue that whether party policy shifts are damaging or rewarding depends on whether the shift occurs in the pragmatic or principled issue domain. On pragmatic issues, voters value "getting things done." Policy shifts in this domain signal responsiveness to the changing environment and are likely to be rewarded. Principled issues, however, concern core beliefs and values. Any policy shift in this domain is a sign of inconsistency and lack of credibility, which is likely to lead to voter withdrawal. These arguments are supported by evidence from 23 advanced democracies over a period of 40 years.  相似文献   
45.
How do parties decide which issues to emphasize during electoral competition? We argue that the answer to this question depends on how parties of the left and of the right respond to economic inequality. Increasing inequality shifts the proportion of the population falling into lower socioeconomic categories, thereby increasing the size of the electoral constituency that is receptive toward leftist parties' redistributive economic appeals. In the face of rising inequality, then, leftist parties will emphasize economic issues in their manifestos. By contrast, the nonredistributive economic policies often espoused by rightist parties will not appeal to this burgeoning constituency. Rather, we argue, rightist parties will opt to emphasize values‐based issues, especially in those cases where “social demand” in the electorate for values‐based representation is high. We find support for these relationships with hierarchical regression models that draw from data across hundreds of parties in a diverse set of the world's democracies.  相似文献   
46.
This study argues that organizationally stronger local party branches are more powerful within the party than organizationally weaker branches: they can better perform the tasks central to the party, which include communication with, and mobilization of, voters. I further argue that this subunit power should be manifested in the parliamentary behavior and status of MPs: those from districts where the local party organization is strong are more likely (1) to behave independently in parliament and break party unity and (2) to hold leadership positions in parliamentary committees. I find support for these propositions in the analysis of 12 legislatures from four postcommunist democracies—Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, and Poland. The results remain robust against various alternative explanations.  相似文献   
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