Modelling the dynamics of support for a right-wing populist party: the case of UKIP

Similar to a number of other right-wing populist parties in Europe, Great Britain's United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) has experienced increased public support in recent years. Using aggregate data from monthly national surveys conducted between April 2004 and April 2014, time series analyses demonstrate that the dynamics of UKIP support were influenced by a combination of spatial and valence issues. A spatial issue, Euroscepticism, was fundamental, with UKIP support moving in dynamic equilibrium with changing public attitudes towards EU membership. In addition, widespread anti-immigration sentiment and dissatisfaction with the performance of the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition government combined with the “oxygen of publicity” to propel UKIP's surge. The political context after the 2010 general election helped as well by enabling UKIP to benefit from valence considerations. Many voters continued to doubt the competence of the major opposition party, Labour, while the Liberal Democrats were part of the government and, hence, unavailable as a protest vehicle. Since many of the forces driving UKIP support are beyond its control, the party's prospects are highly uncertain.     

Subjective effect of September 11, 2001 among pregnant women: is cumulative history of interpersonal violence important?

Prior history of trauma may sensitize individuals to subsequent trauma, including terrorist attacks. Using a convenience sample of secondary, cross-sectional data, pregnant women were grouped based on lifetime interpersonal violence history. Cumulative risk theory was used to evaluate the association of lifetime interpersonal violence history and subjective impact of the September 11, 2001 (9/11) terrorists attacks. Using hierarchical linear regression, cumulative risk theory was partially supported. Women with a history of only one type of interpfersonal violence reported greater effect of 9/11 than did women without a history, but women with both types of violence did not report a greater effect of 9/11 compared to women endorsing history of one type. These data corroborate the literature in that level of exposure to terrorist-related trauma predicts subjective reaction to the attacks. Future research with a larger sample and standardized instruments is warranted.     

Analyses of Beverage Remains in Drug Rape Cases Revealing Drug Residues ‐ The Possibility of Contamination from Drug Concentrated Oral Fluid or Oral Cavity Contained Tablets

In drug‐facilitated sexual assault (DFSA) cases, drug residues may be detected in beverage remains found in cups or glasses known to have been used by the victims. In this small naturalistic study, the possibility of beverages being contaminated, either by drug concentrated oral fluid or by oral cavity contained tablets, was investigated. Analysis of residues from cups containing soft drinks was performed by immunoassay and ultra‐performance liquid chromatography‐mass spectrometry (UPLC‐MS/MS). Beverage with both added tablets and spiked oral fluid was investigated, as well as simulation of swallowing tablets. Only the residues from added tablets were positive with immunoassay, while drugs were detectable in all cups using more sensitive UPLC‐MS/MS. In conclusion, the possibility of detecting drug residues in beverages due to a contamination, from either drug concentrated oral fluid or oral cavity contained tablets at a time of consumption, should be kept in mind when performing sensitive analysis.     

Social workers' and police officers' perception of victim credibility: Perspective-Taking and the impact of extra-Evidential factors

Abstract

The credibility of a victim can be influenced by factors that objectively should not have any impact on the judgemental process. The present two studies examine the influence of two such factors: (1) the non-verbal behavior of the victim, and (2) the ethnic identity of the victim, in the context of two different perspectives of observation (victim focused or truth detecting). Study 1 focused on perspective taking, and was included for the methodological reason that in Study 2 perspective taking was necessarily confounded with subject gender. Study 1 indicates that the perspective of the observer has a significant influence on the perceived credibility of the victim and the interpretation of non-verbal behavior. In Study 2 perspective-taking was manipulated more realistically by including a sample of social workers and of police officers. The other two factors were manipulated in the videotapes. Results suggested that the white victim exhibiting white non-verbal behavior, judged by a social worker, is perceived as more credible and has less chance of secondary victimisation. The black victim however, exhibiting black non-verbal behavior, who is judged by a police-officer, is perceived as least credible and runs a higher chance of secondary victimisation.