A contribution to the discussion of probabilities and human hair comparisons

The paper by Gaudette and Keeping on "An Attempt at Determining Probabilities in Human Scalp Hair Comparison" in the Journal of Forensic Sciences (Vol. 19, No. 3, July 1974, pp. 599-606) has provoked considerable controversy. This paper highlights two of the sources of the controversy and shows how the probability, 1/4500, quoted by Gaudette and Keeping should be treated with caution. The necessity of the use of a likelihood ratio statistic is described. It is suggested that the hair examination form resulting from the responses to the questionnaire recently distributed by the authors and also the discussions at Quantico (Proceedings of the International Symposium on Forensic Hair Comparisons, 25-27 June 1985, Quantico VA) should be used to facilitate the collection of the data which will be necessary to enable a likelihood ratio statistic to be estimated effectively.     

Reviews

Rajan Menon, Soviet Power and the Third World. New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1986, ix + 261 pp. £18.50.

Georgi Arbatov, Cold War or Detente? The Soviet Viewpoint. London: Zed Books, 1983. xviii + 219 pp. £16.95, $30.00 h/b; £4.95, $8.95 p/b.

Jonathan Steele, World Power: Soviet Foreign Policy under Brezhnev and Andropov. London: Michael Joseph, 1983, xii + 287 pp. £14.95.

Imre Vincze, The International Payments and Monetary System in the Integration of the Socialist Countries, The Hague: Martinus Nijhoff, 1984, ix + 185 pp. £20.50, $32.00.

M. M. Kostecki ed. The Soviet Impact on Commodity Markets, London: Macmillan, 1984, xl + 271 pp. £25.00.

Gerhard Fink ed. East‐West Economic Relations Now and in the Future: Die Ost‐West‐Wirtschaftsbeziehungen heute und morgen, Vienna: Springer‐Verlag, 1985, 100 pp. DM 34,00.

András Köves, The CMEA Countries in the World Economy: Turning Inwards or Turning Outwards, Budapest, Akadémiai Kiadó, 1985, 248 pp. £18.25.

Ger P. van den Berg, The Soviet System of Justice: Figures and Policy, Martinus Nijhoff, Dordrecht, Boston, Lancaster (series Law in Eastern Europe No. 29) 1985, xiii + 374 pp incl appendices, indices and references, £56.95, $71.50.

Eugene Huskey, Russian Lawyers and the Soviet State. The Origins and Development of the Soviet Bar, 1917–1939. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986, xii + 247 pp. £19.00.

David Lane, Labour and Employment in the USSR. Brighton: Wheatsheaf Books (distributed by Harvester Press), 1986, 280 pp. £28.50.

Martin McCauley and Stephen Carter, eds. Leadership and Succession in the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and China. London: Macmillan, 1986, xiii + 256 pp. £27.50 h/b, £8.95 p/b.

Leslie Holmes, Politics in the Communist World. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1986, xi + 457 pp. £25–00 h/b, £9.95 p/b.

Peter Kenez, The Birth of the Propaganda State: Soviet Methods of Mass Mobilization, 1917–1929. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985. xi + 308 pp. £27.50, $39.50 h/b, £9.95, $12.95 p/b.

Joseph J. Collins, The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: a Study in the Use of Force in Soviet Foreign Policy. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1986, xv + 197 pp. £22.50, $31.25.

Leszek Buszynski, Soviet Foreign Policy and Southeast Asia. London: Croom Helm, 1986, 303 pp. £25.00.

William J. Kelly, Hugh L. Shaffer and I. Kenneth Thompson, Energy Research and Development in the USSR: Preparations for the Twenty‐First Century. Durham, North Carolina: Duke University Press, 1986, xvi + 417 pp. £62.50.

Gregory D. Andrusz, Housing and Urban Development in the USSR, London: Macmillan in association with CREES, University of Birmingham, 1985, xix + 354 pp. £30.00.

Jane Ellis, The Russian Orthodox Church: a Contemporary History, London & Sydney: Croom Helm, 1986. 531 pp. £27.50.

Edward Acton, Russia: The Present and the Past, London and New York: Longman, 1986, xiii + 342 pp. £17.50 h/b, £8.95 p/b.

Robert Service, Lenin: A Political Life. Vol. 1. The Strengths of Contradiction. London: Macmillan, 1985, x + 246 pp. £25.00.

Abbott Gleason, Peter Kenez and Richard Stites, eds., Bolshevik Culture. Experiment and Order in the Russian Revolution. Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1985, xii + 304 pp., $27.50.

Josef Garlinski, Poland in the Second World War, London: Macmillan, 1985, xxi + 387 pp., £25.00

Andreas Dorpalen, German History in Marxist Perspective. The East German Approach. London: I. B. Tauris & Co., 1985, 542 pp., £24.50.

Walter Parchomenko, Soviet Images of Dissidents and Nonconformists. New York: Praeger, 1986, xv + 251 pp., $33.95.

Soviet Armed Forces Review Annual. Vol. 9 (1984–1985). Edited by David R. Jones. Gulf Breeze, Florida: Academic International Press, 1986. x + 313 pp., $69–50.     

The evolution of employment in Mexico: 1895-1980

Employment figures from the Mexican national census are the basis for this analysis of employment changes in Mexico between 1895-1980. The work identifies longterm trends in the volume and composition of employment and distinguishes 3 main periods in the evolution of employment. The first period, from 1895-1930, marked the end of a stage of development lasting until about 1907 in which sufficient internal stability was achieved to support Mexico's entrance into the world market. Export of agricultural products and metals was the principal focus of economic growth. Construction of roads and railroads was a central element of progress. But economic and social problems manifested in regional disparities, concentration of wealth, conflicts between economic sectors, low pay for agricultural workers, and fierce social and political control characterized the period and culminated in the Mexican Revolution. After the first decade of the 20th century the ability of the economy to absorb new workers began to decline, and the falling of crude activity rates was not reversed until the 1940s. During the 1920s, total employment increased less than 6%, reflecting a net increase of 403,000 male workers and a decrease of 110,000 female workers. The second major period of employment from 1930-1970 saw the change from an economy based on export of primary products to one based on manufacturing for the internal market. There were 2 subperiods, a stage of transition from 1930-50, the economy registered marked fluctuations, but by the 1940s the consolidation of state power and important reforms permitting expansion of the internal market were factors in an accelerated growth of employment relative to the preceding intercensal period. Despite considerable increases in agricultural employment, the relative share of the agricultural sector in total employment was beginning a decline. Employment registered the highest growth rates of the century in the 1940s and exceeded population growth. The increased employment was explained by accelerated growth and accumulation in manufacturing along with increases in commerce, services, construction, and agriculture. From 1950-70, industrial development was consolidated, and there was a generalized expansion in employment in manufacturing as well as in the secondary and tertiary sectors. The economy was less able to absorb new labor, primarily because the agricultural sector had reached the limits of expansion in both the commercial and peasant sector by 1965, at just the time that population growth was most rapid. During the 1970s, manufacturing employment grew less rapidly because of modernization, almost exclusive orientation to the internal market which limited expansion, and scarcity of funds for importing capital goods. A new model of growth will be needed if Mexico is to escape its present stagnation, and a significant share of economic activity will need to be oriented to export. Until this process is consolidated, the national economy is unlikely to show signs of sustained recuperation.