Radicalization as a reaction to failure: An economic model of Islamic extremism

This paper views Islamist radicals as self-interested political revolutionaries and builds on a general model of political extremism developed in a previous paper (Ferrero, 2002). Extremism is modelled as a production factor whose effect on expected revenue is initially positive and then turns negative, and whose level is optimally chosen by a revolutionary organization. The organization is bound by a free-access constraint and hence uses the degree of extremism as a means of indirectly controlling its level of membership with the aim of maximizing expected per capita income of its members, like a producer co-operative. The gist of the argument is that radicalization may be an optimal reaction to perceived failure (a widespread perception in the Muslim world) when political activists are, at the margin, relatively strongly averse to effort but not so averse to extremism. This configuration is at odds with secular, Western-style revolutionary politics but seems to capture well the essence of Islamic revolutionary politics, embedded as it is in a doctrinal framework.     

The plot to kill the pope

Abstract

This essay analyzes East European operations in the conspiracy to kill Pope John Paul II on May 13, 1981. It describes the seemingly irrational, unexplained behavior of Mehmet Ali Agca and Bulgarians in Rome who allegedly carried out the conspiracy. It finally resolves with a surprise twist the inconsistencies in East European planning and operations.     

Horst Hesse: A cold war military intelligence mole

Drawing upon East German Stasi archives, this article presents the story of Horst Hesse's penetration as a double agent into a US Military Intelligence office in Würzburg, Germany during 1955 and 1956. While military personnel were celebrating a German holiday, Hesse broke into the office with two accomplices and absconded with two safes containing the names of MI agents in East Germany. Many were arrested and some were sentenced. The account provides important positive and negative lessons for intelligence tradecraft.     

Luxembourg

European Journal of Political Research -