Voter turnout: How much can we explain?

This paper evaluates the ability of common explanatory variables to predict who votes. Logit voting regressions are estimated with more than three dozen explanatory variables using survey and aggregate data for the 1979, 1980, 1984, and 1988 Canadian national elections. We find that the usual demographic variables such as age and education, and contextual variables such as campaign spending have significant effects on the probability of voting, but the models have low R2's and cannot predict who votes more accurately than random guessing. We also estimate regressions using past voting behavior as a predictor of current behavior, and find that although the explanatory power rises it remains low. This suggests that the difficulty in explaining turnout arises primarily from omitted time- varying variables. In some sense, then, it appears that whether or not a person votes is to a large degree random. The evidence provides support for the rational voter theory, and is problematic for psycho/sociological approaches.     

The Benefit Equity Principle and Willingness to Pay for City Services

In 1991 and 1992, the City of Eugene, Oregon engaged in a citizen participation process to determine public support for a variety of spending and budget balancing alternatives. This process, called Eugene Decisions, employed an innovative combination of public forums, budget balancing exercises and representative surveys. Two of the surveys, which included questions about individual service use, are analyzed here in order to test whether the use of city services is related to willingness to pay taxes and fees. The concept of benefit equity is supported if service use is positively associated with willingness to pay.     

MPs' Pay 1911–1996: Myths and Realities

The controversial 26 per cent salary increase voted for by MPs in July 1996 re-ignited the vexed issue of politicians and pay. This paper firstly develops a framework to review the history of MPs' pay. Secondly, an empirical examination is undertaken with regard to its value relative to prices and earnings, the ruling political party and the overall period disaggregated by decade. This suggests that MPs have been more successful insulating themselves against the ravages of inflation than changes in earnings and that the party in power appears to be influential.     

Decentralization and the post-war political economy

Abstract This paper uses cross–national data for 21 OECD nations to examine whether there is evidence of a connection between measures of political and fiscal decentralization and the major, long–term, performance parameters of the post–war political economy. Findings of what is necessarily an exploratory analysis of a wide range of policy outcomes suggest that federalism and the proliferation of constitutional veto–points have inhibited the expansion of the socially protective state and that a low level of fiscal centralization appears to have restrained post–war inflationary pressures and gone along with higher rates of post–war economic growth. No evidence is found to connect either political or fiscal measures with postwar labour market performance.     

Globalization and the erosion of democracy

Despite the apparent development and spread of liberal democratic state forms in the 1980s and 1990s, possibilities for genuine democratic governance overall are declining. Firstly, the emergence and consolidation of modern liberal democracy was inextricably intertwined with the development of the nation–state and is profoundly socially embedded in that structural context. Secondly, in today's globalizing world, cross–cutting and overlapping governance structures and processes increasingly take private, oligarchic (and mixed public/ private) forms; hegemonic neoliberal norms are delegitimizing state–based governance in general; and democratic states are losing the policy capacity necessary for transforming democratically generated inputs into authoritative outputs. Consequently, robust constraints limit the potential for (a) reinstitutionalizing the 'democratic chain' between accountability and effectiveness, (b) rearticulating the multitasking character of authoritative institutions and (c) renewing the capacity of authoritative agents to make the side–payments and to undertake the monitoring necessary to control free–riding and assimilate alienated groups. Rather than a new pluralistic global civil society, globalization is more likely to lead to a growth in inequalities, a fragmentation of effective governance structures and the multiplication of quasi–fiefdoms reminiscent of the Middle Ages.     

The state of the discipline in American political science: be careful what you wish for?

This article is an attempt to survey and analyse current developments in American political science with particular reference to the current wave of institutionalist theory. The main thrust of this article is to argue that the current concerns of the field are hardly new issues, but rather perennial. We argue that the current 'state of the discipline' is in many ways more a function of recurrent intellectual dilemmas of a general social scientific nature than they are about the particulars of the current debates in the field. Most relevant to a British journal, we shall attempt to 'step outside the hermeneutic circle', and suggest which aspects of contemporary American political science are most relevant to British political scientists.     

Studying British government: reconstructing the research agenda

This article seeks to place the study of British government in a broader context by exploring the potential contribution of an anti-foundational epistemology. We seek to 'reinvent' a self-conscious, sceptical and tentative approach rooted in philosophy and history. The first section defines the Westminster model and the family of linked narratives: traditional sceptics, social science, radical theory, new public management. The second section outlines an anti-foundational epistemology, focusing on the notions of traditions, narratives, decentering and dilemmas. The third section applies this approach to one prominent school of thought about British government: policy networks. We argue that an anti-foundational approach will decenter networks, shifting the locus of analysis from the institutions to individuals, and focus on dilemmas to explain how networks change. Finally, we conclude there is no essentialist account of British government, only complex and diverse narratives, and no tool kit for solving problems, only lessons drawn from many stories.     

Changing Forms of Accountability in Education? A Case Study of LEAs in Wales

Political mechanisms of accountability were marginalized by Conservative government reforms during the 1980s and 1990s which sought a more market-oriented approach within the public sector in order to enhance ‘consumerism’. In education, parents were given more choice between schools and were provided with more information on school performance. The promotion of market accountability has involved a reduction in the powers of local education authorities (LEAs) which had been central to the operation of political accountability. However, whilst market-based forms of accountability were firmly enhanced in principle by the legislation, to what extent have the forms of accountability operating within LEAs changed in practice? Interviews with Chief Officers and the Chair of the Education Committee are used to identify changing perceptions and practices of accountability in LEAs in Wales. The findings indicate that although local politicians and officials have been forced to operate within the legislative framework of market accountability, they have sought to impede its successful implementation. The policy community in Wales facilitated the LEAs’ capacity to respond in this way. The market-based reforms conflicted with fundamental values held in Wales, which remain those of professional accountability.