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841.
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We distinguish between (i) voting systems in which voters can rank candidates and (ii) those in which they can grade candidates, using two or more grades. In approval voting, voters can assign two grades only—approve (1) or not approve (0)—to candidates. While two grades rule out a discrepancy between the average-grade winners, who receive the highest average grade, and the superior-grade winners, who receive more superior grades in pairwise comparisons (akin to Condorcet winners), more than two grades allow it. We call this discrepancy between the two kinds of winners the paradox of grading systems, which we illustrate with several examples and whose probability we estimate for sincere and strategic voters through a Monte Carlo simulation. We discuss the tradeoff between (i) allowing more than two grades, but risking the paradox, and (ii) precluding the paradox, but restricting voters to two grades. 相似文献
844.
Do voters judge their national economy relative to economic performance abroad? In 2013 we took advantage of the German Bundestag election to test this hypothesis predictively. Nearly two months prior to the election, we published an election forecast relying on a theory-driven empirical model of election outcomes that draws on previous election outcomes; characteristics of the government and of voters; and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany (‘benchmarked' growth) in comparison to the three other most important economies in Europe – France, the UK and Italy. Our forecast put the outgoing coalition government of CDU/CSU and FDP at 47.05 per cent of the popular vote deviating from the actual outcome of 46.3 by 0.75 points. This makes our forecast one of the most accurate in this election cycle. Despite one-and-a-half months of lead time, our forecast performed on par or slightly better than the last poll results issued only two days before the election. 相似文献
845.
Fabiana Barbi 《Journal of Chinese Political Science》2016,21(3):357-370
This article analyzes governmental responses for the climate change challenge in China and Brazil. Both countries have a central role in the climate change debate since they are major greenhouse gases emitters, thus contributing to the aggravation of the problem, each with differentiated participation. At the same time, policy measures aimed at climate issues in these countries may lead to the reconfiguration of international negotiations on the topic. The methodological aspects include three main points of analysis: the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions in both countries; political and institutional structures mobilized to the climate issue and focusing on mitigation and policy responses related to climate change. 相似文献
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847.
Zhiyuan Wang 《Human Rights Review》2016,17(2):193-220
This study investigates the determinants of the ratification of International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights (ICESCR). To do so, it proposes an explanation that postulates that states employ treaty ratification as a device to signal their resolve to implement polices required by the treaty at issue in order to appease demanding domestic constituencies, predicting that states with lower compliance capacity tend to commit faster than states with higher compliance capacity. Applying this explanation to the ICESCR leads to two expectations. First, the larger government spending a proxy of high compliance capacity is hypothesized to delay the ratification process. Second, states with the unitary system are expected to ratify the ICESCR more promptly because the centralized power structure in unitary states significantly restricts the pursuit of the policy autonomy by minorities at local level that the right to self-determination entails. The Cox proportional hazard analysis lends support to both hypotheses. 相似文献
848.
Engagement in school is crucial for academic success and school completion. Surprisingly little research has focused on the
relationship between student engagement and delinquency. This study examines whether engagement predicts subsequent school
and general misconduct among 4,890 inner-city Chicago elementary school students (mean age: 11 years and 4 months; 43.3% boys;
66.5% black; 28.8% Latino). To improve upon prior research in this area, we distinguish three types of engagement (emotional,
behavioral, and cognitive), examine whether the relationship between engagement and misconduct is bidirectional (misconduct
also impairs engagement), and control for possible common causes of low engagement and misconduct, including peer and family
relationships and relatively stable indicators of risk-proneness. Emotional and behavioral engagement predict decreases in
school and general delinquency. However, cognitive engagement is associated with increases in these outcomes. School and general
delinquency predict decreased engagement only in the cognitive domain. Suggestions for future research and implications for
policy are discussed. 相似文献
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