Automobile theft: Estimating the size of the criminal population

Animal abundance estimation procedures including a new method of Zelterman are applied in the criminological context of auto theft in the Australian Capital Territory. Using goodness-of-fit statistics and comparing the estimates with known clearance rates, it is estimated that during 1987 about 39% of offenders were charged with at least one count of auto theft. The results also indicate the extent of overrepresentation of juveniles in court statistics compared with their relative participation rate in auto theft.     

Unemployment and the dynamics of offender populations

This paper models the increase in the participation rate of criminal behavior as either the initiation rate or the career length of criminals changes in response to increases in unemployment. Even with large instantaneous increases in unemployment, the models show a very slow increase in the criminal participation rate, giving a possible explanation of the failure of many studies to demonstrate a link between unemployment and crime levels.     

Investment mobilization and capacity completion in the Chinese and Soviet economies

This paper examines the relationship between the mobilization of resources into capital projects and the completion of new productive capacity in two ‘shortage’ economies—China and the USSR. Causes of delayed commissioning of new capacity, and the role of unfinished construction in the investment cycle, are analysed. Annual data over a long period are presented for both economies—for the USSR 1928–37 and 1950–83, and for China 1950–82. Changes over time in the relationship between investment mobilization and capacity completion are considered, along with differences and similarities between the records of the two economies under investigation.     

The Impact of Mediating Victim Offender Conflict: An Analysis of Programs in Three States

Abstract This article presents the findings of an analysis of victim offender mediation programs working with the juvenile courts in Albuquerque (NM), Minneapolis (MN) and Oakland (CA). The study is based upon 868 interviews with crime victims and offenders, including pre- and post-mediation interviews and two different comparison groups. The data that emerged from this study indicates that the vast majority of both victims and young offenders experience the mediation process and outcome (restitution agreement) as fair and are satisfied with the program. The mediation process used by the programs in Albuquerque, Minneapolis and Oakland results in greater satisfaction, greater perception of fairness and higher restitution completion rates than found in a matched sample of victims and offenders who were not referred to mediation.