Political Learning from Presidential Debates

This paper focuses on an important aspect of presidential debates: the degree to which voters are able to glean candidate information from them. Using an open-ended measure of candidate information, the analysis tests hypotheses concerning the impact of debates on information acquisition among the mass public for all debates from 1976 to 1996. The findings indicate that people do learn from debates and that learning is affected by the context in which the information is encountered. Specifically, early debates generate more learning than do subsequent debates, and the public tends to learn more about candidates with whom they are relatively unfamiliar than about better-known candidates.     

A Dynamic Model of Political Change Among Party Activists

In this article, we develop a dynamic model of aggregate attitudinal change among party activists in order to better understand the process by which new issues/cleavages divide major political parties. We build on existing research by developing a model of change that incorporates both conversion among continuing activists and the replacement of previous activists with newcomers who hold different views. We first explore such change among activists of the two major parties in the United States on the abortion issue. We then consider a number of alternative specifications of the model in order to generalize our findings. We conclude that conversion among continuing activists contributes in a substantial way to aggregate change among party activists by influencing the level of change, accelerating the change process, and sustaining change over time.     

Viewing the Crime Wave from the Inside: Perceived Rates of Extortion among Restauraeurs in Germany

The rarer and more serious a type of crime is, the more the public depends on mediated experiences, either via acquaintances or via the mass media. Prior criminological research has also made the point that although the media over-represent and dramatise certain crimes (e.g. by establishing and referring to so-called crime waves) the public perception shows some resistance to these influences and maintains a certain kind of resilience and validity of its own. The mass media discourse in 1990s Germany on extortion of restaurateurs (e.g. via protection rackets) is embedded in the wider interpretation frame of organised crime and is dominated by the assumption that for restaurateurs of foreign origin, especially in big cities, the confrontation is omnipresent. The following article presents the results of a survey of restaurateurs (n = 7,900, Winter 1995/96). In discussing the representativeness and validity of the reported direct, vicarious and perceived victimisation, it is suggested that the aggregate of the perceived victimisation is the most valid measure. However, the perception of the Lebenswelt-experts is far from the media's claim of a ubiquitous threat.     

Kant on Wrongdoing,Desert, and Punishment

Law and Philosophy -     

Schweizerische Aussenpolitik im Wandel: Internationalisierung,Globalisierung und Multilateralisierung

Ausgehend von den drei Entwicklungen, wie sie sich in den Schlagworten Globalisierung, Internationalisierung und Multilateralisierung ausdrücken, geht der Artikel der Frage nach, inwiefern sich die genannten Prozesse auch in der schweizerischen Aussenpolitik identifizieren lassen. In der Untersuchung, die sich auf Staatsverträge beschränkt, wird diese Frage mit einer quantitativen Vollerhebung der aussenpolitischen Geschäfte für je vier Jahre in den 80er und 90er Jahren untersucht. Die empirische Analyse, die auf insgesamt 821 Fällen beruht, führt zu teilweise überraschenden Ergebnissen. Die Hypothesen zur Internationalisierung und zur Globalisierung liessen sich zumindest teilweise bestätigen. Punkto Multilateralisierung weisen unsere Auswertungen jedoch darauf hin, dass es in der schweizerischen Aussenpolitik, was die Zahl der Staatsverträge betrifft, von den 80er zu den 90er Jahren zu keiner Verschiebung von der bi- zur multilateralen Zusammenarbeit gekommen ist.     

NIBRS Data Available for Secondary Analysis

The NIBRS data program currently being implemented by the FBI and local lawenforcement agencies has by now produced sufficient data for archiving anddistribution. Although not representative of crime in the United States, existing NIBRS data can be used to investigate the nature of crimesknown to the police compared to the traditional UCR data. The Bureau ofJustice Statistics has requested the National Archive of Criminal JusticeData to store and make NIBRS data available to interested users. The datafrom 1996 will shortly be available from the NACJD web site. The 1996 datacontain almost 6.5 million records and the FBI's full file includes about 361 Mbytes of data. The data have been disaggregated from the FBI's complex single file into 11 segment levels or record types. This makes theindividual record types easier and faster to analyze than using the fullfile, which more closely resembles a relational database than a hierarchicalfile. However, splitting apart the record types requires that specialprocedures be used to merge files of different record types, which would benecessary if a user were interested in analyzing variables appearing in morethan one record type (e.g., comparing offender and victim ages). These procedures are described, and a test comparing the time to run a simple frequencycount using the full file against the merged files shows that using themerged files is considerably more efficient. Also discussed are some futuredevelopments to facilitate the analysis of NIBRS data.     

Institutional conditions for the integration of immigrants in welfare states: A comparison of the literature on Germany,France, Great Britain,and the Netherlands

Abstract. In this paper we analyse the literature on a particular aspect of immigrant integration in Western European welfare states: the extent to which this can be explained by conditions set by institutions, social rights and rights of residence. Our focus is on health care, old age insurance, housing and vocational training, and on the circumstances under which migrants have access to benefits from the general systems of social security. In particular, the assignment of a legal position by the rights of residence plays an essential role. The various legal groups have access to social benefits depending on their status of residence. The institutional framework of each welfare states is also relevant to the access that people have to social benefits. In the countries analysed, Germany, France, Great Britain, and the Netherlands, the individual security systems are organised according to different political concepts, each of them allowing immigrants access to their benefits to a different degree. On the whole, the degree and kind of governmental regulations seem to be crucially important for the integration of immigrants into the welfare state.     

Reconsidering the principal components of central bank independence: The more the merrier?

We use principal component analysis to reassess the link between different attributes of central bank independence and inflation performance. We suggest that coding problems may account for the fact that almost none of the attributes included in the Cukierman index has a systematic, plausible relationship with inflation. The multi-faceted Cukierman index also seems to be out-performed by a much narrower index focusing solely on policy independence. These findings point to the importance of using public choice analysis to isolate the real problem here: namely, finding specific central bank structures that effectively insulate central bankers from political pressures.