Weighted Content Analysis of Political Advertisements

This article proposes weighted content analysis as a methodological extension of traditional (unweighted) content analysis of political advertising. Weighted content analysis distinguishes between political ads that were produced but not aired and ads that actually aired in a particular media market. To illustrate the advantages of weighted content analysis, this article examines the 1996 presidential campaign in Columbus, Ohio. The tone of 132 presidential campaign ads produced by both candidates is compared with the tone of the 2,522 ads that aired on the three major network affiliates in Columbus. The price of the ad buy is used as an alternative weight that takes into account audience size and thus allows a further distinction between aired and watched ads. Both weighting procedures show that Republican advertising in 1996 in Columbus was more negative than Democratic advertising during the fall campaign, a result that remains undetected by unweighted content analysis. The article concludes by describing three different ways to obtain weighting data: political files kept by television stations and cable providers, commercial tracking data, and internal campaign records.     

Who Cuts Back and When? The Politics of Delays in Social Expenditure Cutbacks, 1980–2005

This article investigates the politics of delays in social spending cutbacks in OECD democracies. In the context of fiscal austerity, policymakers are assumed to have a strong incentive to manipulate the timing of cutbacks strategically. Applying event history analysis to small and large cutbacks in 21 mature welfare states, the authors test whether partisanship, electioneering and institutional constraints contribute to explain the timing of cutbacks. Macro-economic determinants such as worker productivity, economic growth and unemployment are found to be more important than these political variables. However, left-wing governments and welfare states with more institutional rigidity or a greater degree of contribution financing do tend to delay welfare cutbacks, while cabinets that have recently changed their party composition implement cutbacks earlier.     

Diagnosis of a captive-bolt injury in a skull extremely destroyed by fire

The authors report on a combined suicide of a 71-year-old farmer who fired a shot to his forehead with a livestock stunner before burning himself. As the fire was fueled by a pile of firewood it burnt for many hours, thus, causing subtotal incineration of the body. The remaining bones were calcined and reduced to a residual mass of only 3 kg. In spite of the extreme destruction, a circular bone defect corresponding to the site where the captive-bolt had entered the skull could be identified in the frontal squama. The example of this suicide is used to illustrate the problems of distinguishing between mechanical and thermal fractures. As expected, the attempted isolation and amplification of both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA for the purpose of identification was not successful.     

Vaccine alliance building blocks: a conjoint experiment on popular support for international COVID-19 cooperation formats

The design principles of institutions that visibly and significantly affect citizens’ lives are likely to be politically salient. Popular support for these principles is in turn crucial for institutional viability and effectiveness. Transboundary pandemics are a case in point. Understanding citizens’ preferences regarding the design of international alliances set up to mass-produce and distribute vaccines is likely to determine citizens’ subsequent cooperation with vaccination campaigns. This study explores Germans’ preferences for international COVID-19 vaccine alliance design principles. We conducted a conjoint experiment at a recurring cognitive moment in many pandemics’ cycles, between the initial outbreak and a more devastating but still-unknown second wave, when infection rates were very low, yet no policy solutions had been developed. We analyzed preferences regarding four building blocks: (1) alliance composition (size; EU-centrism), (2) alliance distribution rules (joining cost; vaccine allocation), (3) vaccine nationalism (cost per German household; coverage in Germany) and (4) vaccine producer confidence (origin; type). Distribution rules, political ideology and personal perceptions of pandemic threat matter little. But a larger alliance size and dominant EU-country composition increase alliance support. And vaccine nationalism is key: support increases with both lower costs and larger coverage for own-nation citizens. Moreover, support goes down for Chinese and American producers and increases for Swiss and especially own-nation producers. In sum, a realist and technocratic outlook is warranted at the cognitive stage in pandemic cycles when no solutions have been found, yet the worst already seems to be over, as national self-interest reigns supreme in popular attitudes.

     

Forensic analysis of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) by HPLC--statistics and extreme CDT values

Background

Carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) is the most specific serum marker of chronic alcohol abuse so far. There is little knowledge about extreme CDT values of >20% and the more >30% CDT.

Methods

Serum CDT/transferrin ratios from 19,236 serum samples sent to our laboratory for routine CDT analysis were determined by HPLC. About 75% of these serum samples were from traffic or employment medicine investigations. A CDT value frequency histogram was computed and extreme CDT values were clinically validated.

Results

Fourteen thousand four hundred and sixty-one CDT results were normal (≤1.7%) and 4775 increased (1.8–36.9% CDT). Most frequent normal and increased results were 0.9% CDT (n = 1964) and 1.8% CDT (n = 356). CA. 70% of the pathological results were between 1.8% and 5.0% CDT, ca. 88% between 1.8% and 10.0% CDT, and 98% between 1.8% and 20.0%. CDT values >20.0% appeared in 79 cases and results >30.0% in two cases (33.8% and 36.9%). In each case of CDT values >20%, chronic alcohol abuse was the underlying cause as confirmed by anamnestic exploration.

Conclusions

CDT/transferrin ratios are usually <20%. Higher values can appear in rare cases. CDT results >30% can be due to alcohol abuse but should be considered as remarkable single observations. Visualization of the transferrin isoform patterns by HPLC allows the detection of pathological transferrin isoform patterns and of genetic transferrin variants. This is essential for a reliable interpretation of (extreme) CDT values. CDT analysis by immunoassays without physico-chemical confirmatory analysis is no longer acceptable.     

Why football players may benefit from the ‘shadow of the transfer system’

Transfer restrictions have a long tradition in professional sports but came under heavy attack in recent years (e.g. Bosman ruling, Monti system). Based on a bargaining model with stochastic player productivity, we show that less restrictive transfer rules reallocate ex post bargaining power from players to clubs. This reallocation is efficient and in the ex ante self-interest of players. The right to charge transfer fees enables clubs to insure their players. The players, in turn, benefit by converting risky future income into riskless current income. Overall, player utility is higher under more than under less restrictive transfer rules.

Stability and change in political attitudes: Observed,recalled, and “explained”

Using data from a panel survey of members of two generations, this study explores observed change in policy opinions across a 9-year span and respondents' recollections and explanations of their self-perceived attitude shifts. In general, remembrances corresponded poorly to opinions as originally expressed, with respondents perceiving that they were more attitudinally stable than was actually observed. When attempting to reconstruct their past political attitudes, individuals appeared to rely on simple rules of thumb such as one might employ to account for another's behavior. Finally, respondents readily supplied explanations for their self-perceived attitude history, even when those perceptions directly contradicted observed opinion change. It is argued that these results are not artifacts of survey measurement problems. Instead, they indicate that policy attitudes generally do not have strong cognitive representations, are eminently changeable, and once they are changed, an individual's cognitive autobiography is revised so as to render the changes invisible.     

Umfang und Grenzen der Einklagbarkeit von UVP-Fehlern nach Umwelt-Rechtsbehelfsgesetz

Zusammenfassung  Die Frage der Einklagbarkeit von Fehlern bei der Umweltvertr?glichkeitsprüfung (UVP) ist weiterhin ein rechtlich unsicheres Terrain und damit für komplexe Gro?vorhaben ein erheblicher Risikofaktor. Mit dem Umwelt-Rechtsbehelfsgesetz (UmwRG) hat der deutsche Gesetzgeber Regelungen erlassen, die zwar in gewissem Umfang eine Einklagbarkeit von UVP-Fehlern vorsehen, deren Auslegung jedoch umstritten ist. Der vorliegende Beitrag behandelt die Frage, ob und ggf. in welchem Umfang das UmwRG Drittbetroffenen ein subjektives Recht auf Einklagbarkeit von UVP-Fehlern einr?umt. Es wird aufgezeigt, dass insoweit zwischen Umweltschutzvereinigungen und sonstigen Beteiligten zu differenzieren ist und dass eine Erweiterung der Einklagbarkeit von UVP-Fehlern über die beiden in §4 Abs. 1 UmwRG genannten F?lle (Nichtdurchführung einer UVP bzw. Einzelfallvorprüfung) nach der klaren gesetzlichen Festlegung und der bisher ergangenen Rechtsprechung nicht in Betracht kommt.