A "politically robust" experimental design for public policy evaluation, with application to the Mexican universal health insurance program.

We develop an approach to conducting large-scale randomized public policy experiments intended to be more robust to the political interventions that have ruined some or all parts of many similar previous efforts. Our proposed design is insulated from selection bias in some circumstances even if we lose observations; our inferences can still be unbiased even if politics disrupts any two of the three steps in our analytical procedures; and other empirical checks are available to validate the overall design. We illustrate with a design and empirical validation of an evaluation of the Mexican Seguro Popular de Salud (Universal Health Insurance)program we are conducting. Seguro Popular, which is intended to grow to provide medical care, drugs, preventative services, and financial health protection to the 50 million Mexicans without health insurance, is one of the largest health reforms of any country in the last two decades. The evaluation is also large scale, constituting one of the largest policy experiments to date and what may be the largest randomized health policy experiment ever.     

The Nicaraguan Literacy Crusade — How lasting were its benefits?

In 1981, Nicaragua was awarded a UNESCO prize in recognition of the success of the 1980 National Literacy Crusade (CNA) through which, it was claimed, three quarters of the country's illiterate had been taught to read and write. This article reports the follow-up of several women graduates of the CNA. It finds that, a decade later, a significant proportion of them are no longer able to read or write; and that of those who can, many had previously attended formal schooling as children for several years. An assessment of national census and survey figures suggests that about 9 per cent of the population became literate solely as a consequence of Nicaragua's ambitious adult-education interventions in the 1980s. Other benefits, such as the impact on child health and survival, have yet to be quantified.     

Judges,juries, and the decision to convict

The bureaucratic context of criminal prosecution emphasizes efficiency; its legal context emphasizes due process and procedural fairness. This paper focuses on the trial stage of prosecution where both concerns are central. It empirically examines the bench trial, an alternative to the more commonly used plea of guilty and the more traditional trial by jury. A comparison between trial by judge and trial by jury reveals striking differences in determinations of guilt. These differences have implications for commonly held assumptions about both jury and judicial behavior.     

Milton's army: The white house press corps

White House reporters follow a path constructed by presidential advisers that they hope will lead them to fulfill goals set by their news organizations. White House officials ration them facilities for work, access to newsworthy people, and reportable information in amounts that depend on the importance to the President of the type of media they work in, the status of their particular news organization, and the staff's respect for the influence and competence of a particular individual. In this context, several constraints that affect White House reporting are discussed here: those placed on reporters by their organizations; by the way their type of media covers the White House; by their relations with each other; and by their concepts of what they are required to do. The framework for this discussion and analysis is a classification by type of media and news organizations that assign journalists to the White House. Of the resulting six categories, the first three have the most structural and organizational influence and are given the most attention. The special status, unique history, and influence of photographers at the White House require that they be treated separately.     

Identification of a Carbonized Body Using Implanted Surgical Plates: The Importance of Computed Tomography

In addition to clinical examination, forensic odontologists can use diagnostic imaging as an auxiliary method for identification. This paper reports a case where forensic odontologists from the Afrânio Peixoto Legal Medicine Institute in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) positively identified a carbonized and partially calcined body using oral and maxillofacial imaging. The cadaver showed several metallic plates fixed with metallic screws on bones of the neurocranium and viscerocranium. Family members provided spiral computed tomography scans of the skull and a panoramic radiograph that were acquired after an accident that required surgical procedures. Comparative analysis between the clinical exam and the maxillofacial images demonstrated complete coincidence, confirming the victim's identity. Dactyloscopy, which is the most commonly used method of identification, was not possible because of the body carbonization. Thus, diagnostic imaging, especially computed tomography, was essential for elucidation of this case.     

How did international economic regulation survive the last period of deglobalization?

As trade wars and protectionism again present severe challenges and obstructions to international economic regulatory organizations (IEROs), it is timely to ask how their predecessors survived the last deep deglobalization of the interwar years. This article presents a fresh neo-Durkheimian institutional explanation. It highlights contrasting pathways to survival and bequest of IEROs in three fields of regulation – international infrastructure, capital and labor, and commodities. Our explanation shows that functional imperatives and short-term market pressures in these different areas of regulation facilitated specific forms of social organization within IEROs (such as hierarchy or individualistic brokering). These contrasting forms of social organization cultivated distinct regulatory styles during deglobalization and cultivated capacities for contrasting survival and bequest strategies. Our approach is thus able to account for variation in pathways to survival in a way that other possible explanations, such as theories of regulatory capture or bureaucratic autonomy, cannot.