Analysis of the CODIS autosomal STR loci in four main Colombian regions

Genotype polymorphism studies at the 13 loci STRs included in the combined DNA index system [CODIS and PCR-based short tandem repeat loci, in: Proceedings of the Second European Symposium on Human Identification, Promega Corporation, Madison, WI, 1998, pp. 73-88; J. Forensic Sci. 46 (2001) 453] (CODIS: D3S1358, HUMvWA31, HUMFGA, D8S1179 D21S11, D18S51, D5S818, D13S317, D7S820, HUMTH01, HUMTPOX, HUMCSF1PO and D16S539) were carried out in a sample of 1429 unrelated Colombian individuals belonging to 25 different departments. As many other countries in Latino-America, Colombia shows an important admixture component, basically integrated by Amerindians, European-descendants and African-descendants. Due to the fact that only partial population analyses have been carried out in the country, the main aim of the present analysis is to establish a database of forensic interest based on the widely used CODIS systems covering the main Colombian regions.     

Computing Nash Equilibria in Probabilistic, Multiparty Spatial Models with Nonpolicy Components

Although there exist extensive results concerning equilibriain spatial models of two-party elections with probabilisticvoting, we know far less about equilibria in multiparty elections—i.e.,under what conditions will equilibria exist, and what are thecharacteristics of equilibrium configurations? We derive conditionsthat guarantee the existence of a unique Nash equilibrium anddevelop an algorithm to compute that equilibrium inmultipartyelections with probabilistic voting, in which voters chooseaccording to the behaviorists' fully specified multivariatevote model. Previously, such computations could only be approximatedby laborious search methods. The algorithm, which assumes aconditional logit choice function, can be applied to spatialcompetition for a variety of party objectives including vote-maximizationand margin-maximization, and can also encompass alternativevoter policy metrics such as quadratic and linear loss functions.We show that our conditions for an equilibrium are plausiblegiven the empirically-estimated parameters that behavioristsreport for voting behavior in historical elections. We alsoshow that parties' equilibrium positions depend not only onthe distribution of voters' policy preferences but also on theirnonpolicy-related attributes such as partisanship and sociodemographicvariables. Empirical applications to data from a recent Frenchelection illustrate the use of the algorithm and suggest thata unique Nash equilibrium existed in that election.     

Contraceptive behavior in adolescence: A decision-making perspective

The contraceptive behavior of adolescent girls was viewed from a decision-making perspective. A semistructured interview protocol was used in interviewing 120 girls aged 12–19 in three clinics (Teen Family Planning, Prenatal, Pediatric Acute Care) at Michael Reese Hospital and Medical Center on (1) demographic in formation; (2) sexual and obstetric history; (3) contraceptive and sexual knowledge, attitudes, and practices; (4) environmental pressures; (5) personality factors; and (6) decision-making style. We found that the girls were generally poor contraceptors. They viewed the costs of contraception (in terms of safety) to be high; and they positively valued physical intimacy, opportunities for which come up unexpectedly and sporadically. These factors, along with their ambivalent views toward pregnancy and childbearing seemed to encourage their risk-taking behavior. Once pregnancy occurred, it was carried to term because of the strong internal and external pressures they felt to have and keep the baby. The peer-led intervention program that we are developing based on the survey findings will focus on (1) the teenagers' lack of accurate and complete knowledge about birth control and conception, (2) their limited sense of options concerning birth control and pregnancy outcomes, and (3) their poor understanding of and lack of insight into what motivates their behavior.This study is part of the investigation being conducted by the YADMAC (Young Adult and Adolescent Decision Making About Contraception) Project at Michael Reese Hospital and Medical Center, 2959 South Cottage Grove, Chicago, Illinois 60616. The authors are all members of the YADMAC research team.Received Ph.D. from the University of Chicago. Current interests are human sexuality and reproductive behavior. Currently at Department of Psychology, St. Xavier College.Received M.D. from the University of Michigan. Current interests are liaison child psychiatry and adolescent sexuality.Received Ph.D. from the University of Chicago. Current interests are early adolescent development issues.Current interests are puberty and sex differences.B. A. candidate in social work, Roosevelt University. Current interests are adolescent sexuality and contraceptive behavior.     

The efficacy of ACH in mitigating serial position effects and confirmation bias in an intelligence analysis scenario

An experimental study was conducted to test whether the version of the structured analytical method Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) taught by the Cabinet Office to the United Kingdom’s intelligence community provides effective mitigation of the cognitive biases of serial position effects and confirmation bias in an intelligence analysis. ACH had no statistically significant mitigative impact on the proportion of participants that exhibited serial position effects or confirmation bias, or the impact of confirmation bias on the analytical process. The most significant factor that influenced participants’ judgements of the credibility of information was the possibility of deception or dishonesty.     

Federalism and The Politics of Tobacco

Late in 1998, the United States acquired a new regime of tobaccocontrol engineered by the states' attorneys general. Nearlyall of them had filed lawsuits against the major cigarette manufacturers,allegedly with the aim of recouping Medicaid costs attributableto smoking. Despite latent differences of culture and interestin regard to tobacco control, all of the states eventually joinedin settlements with the industry that exacted large paymentsand restricted the industry's advertising and marketing practices.This article explains how it was possible for many differentpolities to agree on the settlement terms, and asks what thecase shows about the impact of federalism on tobacco policymaking.It concludes that tobacco policymaking in the 30 years priorto the lawsuits (1964–1994) was more consonant with constitutionalprinciples and not ineffective in achieving control.     

Guidelines for social services grants

Guidelines for spending federal grants to the states for social services changed repeatedly between 1962 and 1975. The process of preparing guidelines changed, and so did their content. These changes are described and explained. Guidelines at all stages failed to provide intelligible and useful instructions to federal and state administrators. In part this was because the contextual supports that normally help to give effect to grant-in-aid guidelines—explicit antecedents in the law, and implicit understandings among administrators at different levels of the federal system—were lacking or seriously defective. Beyond that, in each of their different phases the guidelines proved untenable because of dysfunctions that may have been peculiar to the respective processes by which they were prepared.The trustees, officers, and other staff members of The Brookings Institution have no responsibility for the contents of this paper.